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Review Post Elections Political Stability in Nepal

With a coalition government in the offing in Nepal, portends of political instability in Nepal continues to be high post elections primarily as there are many contenders for the post of the Prime Minister due to ambitions of leaders in the ruling coalition as well as the opposition CPN UML.

While Nepal Congress Chief and present Prime Minister Mr Sher Bahadur Deuba will be the key candidate in the race and has also been elected by the Party as leader in the new parliament, the CPN Maoist Centre Mr Pushpa Kamal Dahal is ambitious to adorn the prime minister ship again.

He is claiming that in an agreement to share the high office for two and a half years each he should be the first on the chair even though his party does not have the majority and is third in terms of number of seats.

However, Dahal and his supporting Maoists are aware that they are taking the advantage of the fact that their support is essential for any coalition to form a government in Kathmandu.

This was this was the main reason that led to break up of the left alliance that was made by the Party with CPN UML in the past.

CPN-UML and the CPN Maoist Centre have already elected Chairman KP Sharma Oli and Dahal respectively as the head of their parliamentary party which was devoid any inner party elections unlike the Nepali Congress. NC’s party general secretary Gagan Thapa contested against Mr Deuba but could not defeat the political veteran and a prime minister for a number of times in the past.

There is some speculation that the two communist parties may form a block and Oli who had resented elevation of Dahal as the Prime Minister in the coalition post 2017 elections is now willing to given him the first shot this time around.

The Nepali Congress on the other hand remains ambiguous thus Dahal may shift allegiance as he has been known to do so in the past.

Other Challenges

Other power sharing deals are likely to include that of the president, vice-president, and speaker as well as the Chief Ministers in the provinces. Janamat Party Chairman Dr Chandra Kant Raut has said that his party's claim to lead the government in Madhesh Province since his party is the third in Madhesh province.

In a decision with political import with reference to formation of a coalition government one of the key leaders of the Nepal Unmukti Party (NUP) Chaudhary who was the mastermind of the Tikapur (Kailali) massacre and was on life term was released through an ordnance which was much resented but is a move to include the party in the ruling coalition by the Nepali Congress.

India and China – Unstated positions

India and China are seen making some backroom moves to put their principals in place in Kathmandu with New Delhi likely to ensure that a communist party allied government which is aligned to Beijing does not come to power in Kathmandu.

Election Outcome

825 people were elected—275 to the House of Representatives and 550 to the seven provincial assemblies as per the Kathmandu Post. 184 men (66.90 percent) and 91 women (33.10 percent) have been elected to the House of Representatives and 350 men (63.64 percent) and 200 women (36.36 percent) to the seven provincial assemblies.

As anticipated Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba-led Nepali Congress [NC]has emerged as the single largest party in the House of Representatives with 89 seats which includes the seats under the proportionate voting system.

The CPN-UML is second with 78 seats followed by the CPN-Maoist Centre with 32 seats.

Former prime minister K P Sharma Oli-led CPN-UML received the highest votes under proportionate representation system while the NC and CPN-Maoist Centre have secured second and third positions, respectively. The parties will be submitting the list of candidates based on the guidelines of the Election Commission and according to the designated cluster.

In the 275-member House of Representatives, 165 were elected through the First Past the Post System and 110 through the proportional representation (PR) system.

The seats under the PR have allotted by the Election Commission according to sub-sections 2 and 6 of section 60 of the House of Representatives Election Act 2074 BS and schedule 1 and 2 of the same act and sub-section 2 of section 60 of the State Assembly Member Election Act 2074 and schedule 1 of the same act.

12 parties and independents will represent in the House of Representatives.

In the FPTP Nepali Congress (NC) has won 57 seats. CPN-UML won 44 seats, CPN (Maoist Center) 18 seats and CPN (Unified Socialist) 10 seats.

The newly emerged Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) won 7 seats each.

Loktantrik Samajwadi Party (LSP) won 4 seats, NagarikUnmukti Party 3 seats, independent candidates won 5 seats and Janmaat Party, Nepal Workers Peasants Party (NWPP) and RashtriyaJanamorcha won 1/1 seat each.

In the PR system UML has got 34, NC 32, Maoist Center 14, RSP 13, RPP 7, JSP and Janmaat Party 5/5 seats each.

87 political parties participated in the election for the members of the House of Representatives, while the number of parties participating in the elections for the members of the Provincial Assembly varies from province to province. 2,412 candidates were in the election fray for 165 seats directly in the House of Representatives.


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