How will the Cookie Crumble for Mr Imran Khan?
In the first we examine how the cookie will crumble for Khan. This is an examination of factors that are likely to contribute to his fall, when the fall may happen, the contentious issues including role of the Army and the United States and what next?
What next examines a number of scenarios none of which seem to be favourable for political stability in Pakistan, these may be acceptable to many including the Pakistan Army given the bloopers by Mr Khan in the past three years plus that he has been in power.
Political Flux in Pak: Imran Should Beware the Ides of March
In the article on Political Flux in Pak: Imran Should Beware the Ides of March we discuss how the numbers stack up for the ruling Pakistan Tehreek Insaaf (PTI) government, what roles the allies of the government have, what led the situation to come to a passe and how Mr Khan will fight back?
How the opposition shaped the No Confidence Motion?
In the next series of articles we examine how the opposition shaped the No Confidence Motion from contact with government allies the PML Q and having got it on board established communications with the dissident faction of the PTI led by Jahangir Khan Tareen, an erstwhile confidant of Prime Minister Imran Khan who fell out after a sugar scam including his name emerged.
Roots of Instability in Pakistan
The future of the Imran Khan government may not be as important as the roots of political instability in Pakistan in line with the trends identified for 2022.
Clearly Pakistan’s institutions are dysfunctional be it the political establishment, the judiciary or the Pakistan Army.
One of the main factors is the Pakistan Army’s oversized role in manipulating the politics in the country for the past 70 years.
The Army has not allowed a stable political order to emerge toppling civilian governments when they have questioned the military.
Mr Nawaz Sharif the PML N Supremo who is presently in virtual exile ostensibly for medical treatment to avoid serving a jail sentence which is controversial is a case in point.
Sharif was deposed twice by the Army – once in 1999 in a military coup and a second time in 2017 in a political one.
Weakness of the political system is also underlined by corrupt political party system ironically one that the PTI led Imran Khan sought to reform but fell to his own narrative.
There is no reason for hope given the institutional instability in general in Pakistan.