Geopolitical Risks Update 22 November 2025

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22 November

The Trump Peace Plan for Ending Ukraine War

Risks

The basic flaw of the Plan as it is a sweeping attempt to equate the aggressor and the victim while emasculating not just Ukraine but also European Union and NATO – which has held peace on the Continent so far through the powerful shield of deterrence.

Yet NATO or the EU members have not been consulted with the US possibly acting as an arbitrator on their behalf without their knowing.

In addition, key principles of conflict termination and resolution  which are violated. The plan violates the international principles of aggression and victim’s rights.

In any negotiation the aggressor has to feel the pinch thereby demonstrating that in simple terms aggression does not pay not just in the case of the Russia Ukraine scenario but also sending a signal to others who may have such intentions.

For a just peace, justice should be seen not just done but also seen for the thousands of casualties of the War.

Sovereign restrictions are being placed on not only Ukraine but on Europe as well.

Identified by International Crisis Group This Week in Conflict

United Nations

The UN Security Council voted Monday to approve a U.S.-sponsored resolution endorsing the Trump administration’s plan for ending the war between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip. The resolution passed with 13 votes, though China and Russia abstained. It gives the Council’s imprimatur to U.S. proposals to establish a Board of Peace to administer Gaza and an international force to maintain security in the enclave. It also says “the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood” if the Palestinian Authority (PA), which it foresees taking control of Gaza from Hamas, reforms and reconstruction in the strip proceeds apace. The PA and Israel welcomed the resolution; Hamas rejected it, saying the Board of Peace imposes foreign guardianship on the Palestinians. It also said the international force’s mandate to disarm Palestinian groups in effect makes that body a tool of continued Israeli occupation.

Risks Ahead Crisis Group expert Daniel Forti says passing the resolution may have been the easy part. It will be much harder to assemble the envisioned international force and and sustain a political process that Palestinians in Gaza, as well as Israel, the PA and their international partners, see as credible.

U.S.-Venezuela

The Trump administration sent mixed signals this week regarding the U.S. naval buildup in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela. On one hand, the State Department announced its intent to designate Cartel de los Soles, which it says is a narcotics ring headed by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, as a foreign terrorist organisation, effective on 24 November. The White House has pointedly declined to rule out military action to remove what it calls the “illegitimate” Maduro government. On the other hand, President Donald Trump said he was open to negotiations with Caracas to “take care of Venezuela”, which he claims is a major source of illicit drugs coming into the United States. Maduro also indicated willingness to talk.

Positive Crisis Group expert Phil Gunson says it is encouraging that the two parties may be looking for a diplomatic off-ramp, as U.S. strikes on Venezuela would likely sow chaos in the country.

U.S.-Ukraine

Media reports this week said the Trump administration is exerting new pressure on Ukraine to sign a peace deal with Russia, perhaps as soon as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on 27 November. The agreement would consist of a 28-point plan reportedly drafted by the administration’s all-purpose envoy Steve Witkoff. Among other things, it would require Kyiv to cede Ukrainian territory to the Russian invaders and drastically cut the size of its military.

Risks Ahead. If the reports are accurate, says Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim, it would mean the Trump administration has done what many feared it would do when it entered office in January: try to impose a peace favourable to Moscow without consulting Kyiv or U.S. allies in Europe.