Remain below India's threshold of tolerance, target the innocent, employ youth not under the security radar through coercion or temporary indoctrination, exploiting drones for arms and munitions support are some of the arms of Pakistan's terror support in strategy in J & K.
Background
India’s punitive deterrence, counter strategy has had an impact on Pakistan’s support to terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir.
The two, “surgical strikes,” in 2016 and 2019 has placed India’s western neighbour in a quandary given the possibility of triggering a conventional Indian backlash.
The, “surgical strikes,” by India were measured to keep the escalation low even though the airstrike in Balakote did result in the Pakistan Air Force launching operations to a shallow depth across the Line of Control, the overall threshold of tolerance was not crossed.
The much debated, Cold Start Strategy of the Indian Army nee armed forces was a viable option but had become untenable due to portends of escalation given Pakistan’s development of battlefield tactical rocket the so called, “Nasr.”
This is more so with concerns of nuclear escalation having arisen given the war in Ukraine reaching just such an apogee of sorts.
Increase in security deployments and measures to neutralize the support structures of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir post revocation of Article 370 or Special Status in the State now a Union Territory has further constricted space for promoting unrestricted terror as in the 1990’s and early 2000.
This realization apart from heavy expenditure entailed in firing of thousands of rounds of munition may have led to the seminal agreement to cease fire between Indian and Pakistan Director General Military Operations in February 2021.
“In the interest of achieving mutually beneficial and sustainable peace along the borders, the two DGsMO agreed to address each other’s core issues and concerns which have the propensity to disturb peace and lead to violence. Both sides agreed for strict observance of all agreements, understandings and cease firing along the Line of Control and all other sectors with effect from midnight February 24-25 Feb 2021,” the statement following the agreement was reported by the Hindustan Times.
The cease fire which is now 20 months old has largely held and incidents of infringements have been handful. This has also checked possibility of infiltrating large number of terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir through providing them fire support which has been a technique that the Pakistan Army and Rangers have mastered over the past almost two and a half decades.
Current Pak Strategy
Instigating the youth in Jammu and Kashmir to air their grievances through violent acts of terror as a policy has however not been abandoned by Pakistan given the internal political determination to support the largely “lost,” cause of separatism in the Valley and Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) need to continue to stamp an aura of authority by demonstration of ability to conduct acts of disruption in the Union Territory.
Against this back ground an alternate strategy of keeping the threat of terror alive in the Valley without inviting a major Indian backlash a la Balakote appears to have been devised by the ISI. Some of the principal elements of this are outlined as given below:-
Use of youths on the fringe of indoctrination, outside recorded list of terrorists which the J & K Police names as, “hybrid terrorists,” a controversial term in some ways to carry out targeted attacks using hand held weapons as pistols to kill or main the most vulnerable.
These include the Kashmir Pandits who have returned to the Valley and non locals who are working in orchards and other toil. Killing or harming these raises an uproar through the Valley as well as in Delhi. There is no compunction in putting the lives of such innocents at risk who are only earning their daily bread to make a living. But innocents are never a consideration for terrorists or states supporting them as Pakistan.
Apart from a pistol, bomb, grenade and IED is another tool that has been added with a number of incidents noticed in the recent past.
Supplying the tools of terror is facilitated by use of drones which has been frequent in Punjab as well as in the Jammu belt with dead drops predetermined from time to time.
While the organized network of terrorist groups as the Lashkar E Taiyyaba has been disrupted and is under heavy scrutiny by international agencies, alternate nom de guerre are allotted such as The Resistance Front (TRF) and so on.
Counter Terror Response
For Indian security forces operating in Jammu and Kashmir counter terror response to such terrorist attacks remains a challenge. Preemptive information of the so called, “hybrid terrorist,” is invariably lacking, providing security to the large number of Kashmiri Pandits and non locals is not practical, nor is keeping them in guarded camps as that defeats the very purpose of their stay in the Valley.
Saturating the Valley and parts of Jammu region with security forces is counter productive, taxing resources and also fails to generate the impression that all is normal in the Valley.
Will a popularly elected government at the helm in Jammu and Kashmir and restoring status of a State help is not clear for now?
As the Centre at present is not inclined to hold talks with Pakistan and nor is Islamabad closes this option as well.
The alley appears blind for now but protection of the vulnerable the Pandits and non locals needs to be reinforced till a solution emerges.