Pakistan: PML N Falls in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Trap

On Sunday, 11 October, Pakistan’s president Asif Ali Zardari suspended the government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa [KP], after declaring a state of emergency. The move came amid escalating tensions between Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government and former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) provincial government in KP.

The ostensible cause for the emergency is noted in the cabinet meeting as the “provincial government’s deliberate disengagement from the fight against terrorism.” President Asif Ali Zardari was already on board after a meeting with the Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif earlier.

Most analysts argue that security concerns provide the formal justification for the political objective—of containing PTI’s popularity expressed through street power which threatens the PML N government as well as the Pakistan Army

As the federal government has imposed emergency and governor’s rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa it may have set its own trap if the intent as pronounced has been to contain militancy in the province and not to dismiss the PTI government as the chief minister was on the way to Islamabad in a rally to seek demands mainly related to holding Mr. Imran Khan in jail for several months with deteriorating health.

The move will however free the PTI from the burden of governance trapping the PML N led federal government which will have to bear the onus of security and without the alibi which was not believed in any case of lack of cooperation by the provincial government. The blame will squarely be on the Pakistan Army’s shoulders with Shahbaz Sharif government being the front face.

The essential element of success in a counter militancy campaign is support of the local population. How with the dismissal of the popularly elected government of the PTI howsoever inacceptable it may be for the PML N and the Army people’s support will come by is now a moot question.

In the past this was through mainly coercive measures as internal displacement of large numbers from areas in which counter militancy operations were underway in camps set up for the IDPs. This was hugely unpopular and in case readopted will add to the resentment in the tribal areas.

This time the Taliban in Afghanistan has been accused by Pakistan of support to terrorist groups as the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan [TTP] active in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa [KP] as well as Baloch resistance in Balochistan. Kabul is unwilling and is thus unlikely to cooperate in any counter militancy cooperation with the Pakistan forces across the Durand Line.

September had witnessed significant deterioration, according to Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS). Terrorist violence increased substantially, with 225 attacks recorded nationwide, compared with 199 in August, representing a 13.1 per cent increase and the highest monthly total recorded in 12 years. By end of the year Pakistan may once again head the Global Terrorism Index for the year with a dubious distinction of doing so for the second year in a row.

Will dismissing the PTI government change the security situation in KP thus remains to be seen.