Pakistan’s New Adventurism in Afghanistan, Upstaging Taliban
Growing contestations over Afghan Taliban support to the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan or TTP between Kabul and Islamabad appears to be moving beyond air and drone strikes and border clashes to support the anti-Taliban resistance forces by Pak ISI, here is how the cookie may crumble…
Five years after the Taliban, self-proclaimed Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan usurped power in Kabul, Afghanistan could see another revolution, the first markers of which are evident in the past couple of months. While the overnight collapse of the Taliban regime in Kabul is unlikely for now as the ongoing anti regime violence is in the form of disparate attacks spread in a few provinces, whether these can foment a national rebellion only time will tell. The reasons for such a possibility are not far to see. First and foremost is the unfortunate history of the country which has seen upheavals for the past several decades starting with the Soviet incursion in 1979 to their withdrawal in 1989, the fall of the Burhanuddin Rabbani government which was unstable in any case to the first invasion by the Taliban in 1996, United States Operation Enduring Freedom post 9/11, two decades of “managed democracy,” under a government supported by the international community to the Doha agreement and withdrawal of US and NATO forces followed by Taliban entry into Kabul on August 15, 2021. Underlying is Afghanistan Pakistan historical hostility which commenced with the independence of Islamabad and denial of recognition of the Durand Line as the international border by successive regimes in Kabul underlines that the Afghans will not accept dominance by their Eastern neighbour.
Taliban’s second rule has seen physical security however with ruthless enforcement of their brand of Sharia – denial of human rights and circumscribing women to the veil, the home and the hearth has emerged as a significant threat to normalcy for the people. Communities other than the Pashtuns and non Sunni sects have been persecuted, their institutions undermined and leaders confined. The UN Security Council has highlighted that Taliban continue to provide space for internationally proscribed groups as al Qaeda and regional terror organisations as the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan or the TTP also known as Pakistan Taliban. The latter along with Baloch insurgents has led to a surge of attacks in neighbouring Pakistan resulting in the country topping the Global Terrorism Index in 2025 and possibly also this year. An overall outcome of these developments is lack of recognition of the Taliban regime in Kabul except nominally by Russia and acceptance of envoys by China, India, Pakistan and some Central Asian republics amongst others.
Denial and repudiation of allegations of rights violations and sanctuaries to external terrorist groups have been the options exercised by the Taliban which is split between Kabul – the administrative capital and Kandahar the ideological from where the dictates of conservative Sharia prevail. On women’s rights including restrictions on education beyond Class VI the shield is the Sharia which goes much beyond the Deobandi philosophy to follow an interpretation rejected by the global Muslim Ummah. While partaking of the humanitarian largesse offered by the United Nations, European Union, India, Japan and others, stringent controls are applied to channel the same and here again women are kept out of the loop including in the health sector. By now the global community has come to the end of their tethers so to say in dealing with the Taliban.
For Pakistan a breaking point is reached as waves of terror attacks that has led to the killing of hundreds and injuries in thousands tarnishing the image of the Pakistan Army, for inability to handle the menace. Islamabad has employed all tools from talks, mediation to closure of trade and transit, deportation of thousands of Afghans including students and finally over the past two years has undertaken a series of aerial strikes at least 17 episodes so far to deter Taliban from supporting the TTP. The outcome has been limited with reports of Taliban shifting some of the camps of the group away from the Pakistan border - the Durand Line unrecognized by Kabul.
As attacks have persisted Pakistan is now apparently supporting anti-Taliban political and armed groups. An conference, titled Afghan Predicament and the Trajectory to Peace, held in Islamabad on 29 and 30 September by a think tank supported by the Pakistani establishment lagged that Afghanistan is facing a dual crisis of a non-inclusive and unrepresentative government, while also alleging that the Taliban administration provided safe havens for terrorist groups. International and regional political and diplomatic mobilization is also occurring as a meeting titled “Afghan Predicament and the Trajectory to Peace” was held in Islamabad with the participation of representatives from several neighboring countries on October 01.
Armed opposition is also active such as the National Resistance Front – a follow up of the famed Panjshiri leader Ahmand Shah Massoud now led by his son, Ahmad Massoud to the Afghanistan Freedom Front and Afghan United Front amongst others, the latter led by former Afghan Army generals. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres latest report to the Security Council on Afghanistan of September 2026 noted that armed groups opposed to the Taliban claimed responsibility for 88 attacks across 21 provinces between 1 May and the end of July this year The outcome has been largely local disruption but not territorial control. The Taliban’s coercive security posture prevents escalation into a full-blown insurgency but has had limited success in eliminating micro‑cells embedded in many parts of the country. These could be seen as preliminary indications of a militancy ironically this time supported by Pakistan. Chitral in North West Pakistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is reportedly a hub for anti Taliban forces including the Islamic State of Khorasan Province from where these groups are launching attacks in Afghanistan. Chitral facilitates secure hides in the rugged mountainous terrain and is adjacent to Badakhshan and Nuristan which have seen several resistance attacks in the past few months thus underlining a direct geographic linkage. The Taliban in Kabul has alleged as much after recent skirmishes in Nuristan and warned that greater powers as the former Soviet Union and NATO led by the United States have come to grief in Afghanistan, however hubris of the Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence or the ISI is unlikely to heed to historical lessons and will continue support to resistance groups as another foil to coerce Taliban to sever links to the TTP and possible regime replacement in Kabul in the medium term. The ISI failed to realise that a picture of its then chief Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed drinking tea in the Serena Hotel in Kabul after the Taliban rode to power was extremely galling to the forbearers of the Islamic Emirate. Perhaps on this day on September 04, 2021 the first seeds of future antipathy between the Taliban and Pakistan was sown.
Internally the Taliban has strongly criticised political and military opponents, including the National Resistance Front and other armed groups on ideological grounds and their previous alliance with the Western countries. The Taliban is labeling the resistance as conspiring with the “occupiers” during the presence of US and NATO forces, have attempted to undermine their ideological and moral roots in contesting the Islamic Emirate which is seen as of pure faith. On the other hand, Taliban opponents have repeatedly challenged the legitimacy of the group’s administration, saying the Taliban seized power by force, established an ethnically and gender-exclusive government, disqualified women from public life and marginalised ethnic communities. Thus, there is not just an armed conflict ongoing but also overtones of an ideological divide.
To summarise there are several factors which work against the Taliban in the long term, hosting of global and regional terrorist groups, armed resistance supported by Pakistan, people’s concerns due to economic hardships and restriction of freedoms, internal factionalism - a combination of these may lead to another collapse in Kabul, but that day is not in sight so far.
The little girls in Kabul may have to await some years before they can study beyond the sixth standard.
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