Pakistan Forecast October: Growing Challenges from Middle East to Politics of Provinces

The ides of October are likely to increase complexities for Pakistan from managing a likely Saudi demand for military support to combat the Houthis in Yemen, relations with Iran, political turbulence in the wake of proposal for splitting Punjab and Sindh and deteriorating internal security while the economy continues to face shock of rising fuel price.

Testing the Mecca Alliance

On the international front the Mecca Joint Defence Alliance has come under immediate test with Iran backed Ansar Allah known as the Houthi have seized control of the country’s western coast, further consolidating their hold over the vital Bab al-Mandab Strait after capturing more than 5,400 square kilometers of territory. In a sweeping ground campaign along Yemen’s western coast, the Houthis entered Dhubab, a town located directly on the Bab al-Mandab Strait opposite Perim Island. This marks a new pressure point on the international energy routes with both the Bag el Mandab and the Straits of Hormuz now controlled by Iran or forces backed by Tehran.

With United States President Donald Trump reportedly refusing to intervene even after request by the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, the Mecca Joint Defence Alliance announced with much fanfare by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey on August 07 will be tested. Apart from denouncing the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's civilian and energy infrastructure, calling them a cowardly act that put innocent lives at risk and jeopardised regional peace and security, Pakistan has not denoted any military inclination to be embroiled in the new front in the middle. East. The Mecca Pact’s Article 5 style clause means any attack on Saudi Arabia is politically framed as an attack on Türkiye and Pakistan as well. Yet if Riyadh calls upon Pakistan to act, a new dilemma will be posed to the national and military leadership. In the past, the Nawaz Sharif government has refused to support operations by Saudi Arabia in Yemen.

Military Resurgence

Having given then Army Chief and now Chief of the Defence Force Field Marshal Asim Munir hand me down through Article 27 making him a virtual Chief of all the armed services for life and now providing all the accoutrements of a unified defence HQs. Last November, the Pakistan Parliament approved the 27th amendment, which established the Federal Constitutional Court and the Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), a position permanently held by the Army Chief, allowing him to hold command over the Navy and Air Force., Pakistani parliament passed the Defence Forces of Pakistan Act, 2026 and the National Command Authority (Amendment) Act, 2026, which enforce or give effect to changes introduced by the 27th Amendment, specially the new military command structure thus effectively expanding Munirs control over the services.

Provinces – the Political Sleight of Hand

A resurgent Munir is now moving into the political space thus Pakistan’s parties are facing the portends of handing the Establishment’s proposal for creating more provinces. The government has agreed to move the same in the National Assembly and Senate in October is a measure defter than a coup and establishment of martial law a la Zia or Musharraf. The Establishment proposal is framed as administrative efficiency. By creating multiple provinces, the Establishment appears to be attempting to reduce the fiefdoms of established parties PML N and PPP in Punjab and Sindh respectively.

Federal Planning and Development Minister Ahsan Iqbal have called for a formal debate on creating new provinces in Pakistan, proposing that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif set up a committee to examine the country’s administrative structure.

Dr Sorath Sindhu, a political activist in Karachi is quoted in the News as saying, “…now they [the establishment] are setting the terms of the debate that we through coercion are bringing a new thing so you [political parties] bargain with us. What else are you willing to concede?”

The Army hopes to manipulate the smaller parties in the provinces and thereby gain control over the machinations of the established players led by the ever-green Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif. The duo – the eternal survivors of Pakistan politics have their task cut out even as the nemesis of the military Imran Khan wallows in the dark cells of Adiala Jail. Parties like the PML N and PPP oppose new provinces because they threaten their core vote banks, yet open defiance risks confrontation with state institutions. At best they can slow down the momentum for provincial restructuring and attempt to preserve their own turf.

The issue of splitting of provinces is so serious that President Asif Ali Zardari returned to Pakistan on September 8 after cutting short his stay in the British capital, PPP has strongly opposed any move to divide Sindh and maintains that no new province can be created without constitutional procedures, political consensus and public support.

The parties can resist, but only if they can muster support of the communities over fear that new provinces may dilute ethnic identities, redistribute resources unfairly, or empower unelected actors. Invoking Article 140A, to hold elections for local governments is an option.

 The resistance will be complicated by the Establishment’s ability to shape media discourse, bureaucratic momentum, and provincial coalitions.

Internal Security

On the internal security front the flux continues even as the military has claimed much success through launch of Intelligence Based Operations, the final tally of these and containment of violence remains unclear for now as there are no independent reports from the ground. Blaming Afghanistan and India for supporting the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan and the Baloch insurgent groups is being sustained, even as no measures to address the grievances of the people have been undertaken. Relying on kinetic operations alone cannot lead to lasting peace.

Economy

 On the economic front Pakistan’s economic trajectory by October 2026 is cautiously optimistic though fragile. Growth in FY26 is projected around 3.5–3.8% and inflation 8–8.5%. How the new developments on the energy front including blocking of Bab al Mandeb impacts economy are unclear for now.