Nepal Elections: Outcome and Way Ahead

Republican electoral democracy may have stabilized in Nepal with the second successive election under the new constitution. Whether this will bring about political stability however remains to be seen even as official results of the Nepal elections have been declared by the Elections Commission Nepal on December 07.

The left communist block which had emerged as a unified ideological grouping in 2017 now stands split while the Nepali Congress (NC) seems to have succeeded in breaking the bastion of the communists by forming a prepoll alliance of two of its constituents. NC, Maoist Center, Unified Socialist, Rastriya Janamorcha and LSP, which are part of the ruling coalition, contested the election after forging an electoral alliance, while the UML contested the election by forming another alliance. This political strategy seems to have worked for the Nepali Congress.

However as Nepal is slated to have a coalition government in the coming five years, a predicament that has been the outcome for the past decade or so whether the prepoll alliance remains or the CPN UML leads one remains to be seen?

While the Nepali Congress and the CPN UML will lead any coalition given the largest number of seats in the House of Representatives, 89 and 78 respectively, the CPN Maoist Centre will be the King Maker with 32 seats along with a number of smaller parties from Madhes and newly emerged political formulations such as the Rashtriya Swantatra Party.

So what are the permutations and combinations for forming the next government, but first the party wise numbers.

House of Representatives outcome

As anticipated Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba-led Nepali Congress [NC]has emerged as the single largest party in the House of Representatives with 89 seats which includes the seats under the proportionate voting system.

The CPN-UML is second with 78 seats followed by the CPN-Maoist Centre with 32 seats.

Former prime minister K P Sharma Oli-led CPN-UML received the highest votes under proportionate representation system while the NC and CPN-Maoist Centre have secured second and third positions, respectively. The parties will be submitting the list of candidates based on the guidelines of the Election Commission and according to the designated cluster.

In the 275-member House of Representatives, 165 were elected through the First Past the Post System and 110 through the proportional representation (PR) system.

The seats under the PR were allotted by the Election Commission according to sub-sections 2 and 6 of section 60 of the House of Representatives Election Act 2074 BS and schedule 1 and 2 of the same act and sub-section 2 of section 60 of the State Assembly Member Election Act 2074 and schedule 1 of the same act.

12 parties and independents will be represented in the House of Representatives.

In the FPTP Nepali Congress (NC) has won 57 seats. CPN-UML won 44 seats, CPN (Maoist Center) 18 seats and CPN (Unified Socialist) 10 seats.

The newly emerged Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) won 7 seats each.

Loktantrik Samajwadi Party (LSP) won 4 seats, NagarikUnmukti Party 3 seats, independent candidates won 5 seats and Janmaat Party, Nepal Workers Peasants Party (NWPP) and RashtriyaJanamorcha won 1/1 seat each.

In the PR system UML has got 34, NC 32, Maoist Center 14, RSP 13, RPP 7, JSP and Janmaat Party 5/5 seats each.

87 political parties participated in the election for the members of the House of Representatives, while the number of parties participating in the elections for the members of the Provincial Assembly varies from province to province. 2,412 candidates were in the election fray for 165 seats directly in the House of Representatives.

Way Ahead for Coalition Forming

Since none of the political parties could secure a requisite majority seats in the election, a government has to be formed as per Article 76 (2) of the Constitution. Article 76 (2) of the constitution which states that the President shall appoint the member of the House of Representatives who can obtain a majority with the support of two or more parties as the Prime Minister.

The President Bidya Devi Bhandari has been controversial in the past due to her affiliation with the CPN UML and had persisted with that party even though it had lost a majority in the last HoR.

As per the numbers and affiliations the President should be inviting the pre poll alliance led by the NC for forming the government provided the parties pose a unifying front provided it can prove the support of 138 elected members one plus the half way mark.

Nomination of the Prime Minister will remain a key issue.

Maoist Unified Centre leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal is looking at leading the coalition for the first half of the tenure even though his party is a minor partner.

Maoist Center may play hard ball as the CPN UML is also reportedly offering the Maoist Center the prime ministerial berth. NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba has asked Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal to support him as the new prime minister. But Maoist Center Chairman Dahal has been saying in public that he will be the first prime minister in the new parliament, hinting at possible arrangements to share the post of prime minister after some time. Thus the Prime Ministerial post is the principal bargaining point

Whether the NC which has the larger numbers will agree to Dahal remains to be seen? Within the NC as well there is a competition for the post of the Prime Minister with younger leaders questioning the stakes of incumbent Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba to take up the post for a record sixth time.

Distribution of the main portfolios including speaker of the HoR and others wll be another bone of contention. Thus division of spoils will determine the coalition formation ahead.

Challenges of Coalition

Maintaining a coalition has been challenging due to several factors ranging from inter and intra party positions, cohesion and unity in the political parties and ambition of individual leaders where the post of Prime Minister has been turned into a rotating one.

In the next five years it may be no different, which is a cause for concern for political stability as well as economy and development of the country.

Foreign policy may also be an issue with the NC aligned to the United States and the left parties towards China. India may on the other hand be in a comfortable position which ever party leads the government but may prefer the NC.