Myanmar Forecast October: Continued Strategic Fragmentation and Intensified Violence

Map [details unverified] Created by MS Co Pilot for General Representation

Fractured sovereignty in multiple dimensions from international and regional relations to territorial control, governance and administration will continue in Myanmar in October even as violence will take more lives as the dry season implies intensification of operations. Peace and stability will remain distant as the Union Government and Pro-Democracy Forces with multiple divisions within grapple for exercising their writ in perhaps one of the worst periods in the country’s history.

International Relations

International and regional engagement with Myanmar reflect recognition of a fractured sovereignty – the Government led by President Min Aung Hlaing and the pro-democracy forces. Some countries are simultaneously engaging the dyarchy based on pragmatism to manage border stability and security, others which include the West and a part of the ASEAN group which is split down the middle are adopting a policy of isolation of the military led administration. There are agencies which have adopted an ambiguous approach.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk called on UN member states to refer the situation in Myanmar to the International Criminal Court through the Security Council while addressing the 63rd Session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland. This is expected to deter some of the countries from sustaining engagement with the military led government.

This comes even as the Union administration is demanding representation in the UN presently held by Kyaw Moe Tun, ambassador appointed by Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government before the 2021 coup who Nay Pyi Taw claimed to be carrying out ‘” illegal activities” being dismissed by the Min Aung Hlaing administration. UN Credentials Committee has repeatedly deferred a decision, allowing Kyaw Moe Tun to retain Myanmar’s seat. Despite the backing of Russa and China two veto wielding members of the UNSC, the military led government has failed to remove the previous appointee.

The ambiguity in engagement is evident as two Yangon hospitals have received international accreditation from the American Accreditation Commission International (AACI), a US-based healthcare accreditation organization as per the Irrawaddy which in the report also claimed that these were linked to President Min Aung Hlaing and his family, which remains unverified.

Regional Relations

 The split in the ASEAN is expected to continue as Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam jumped the ASEAN Five-Point consensus to engage with the Government headed by Min Aung Hlaing which has failed to comply with any of the conditions laid down in April 2021. President Min Aung Hlaing has visited these countries and was received as Head of the State. Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei on the other hand have shunned contacts. As Singapore is set to take over the ASEAN chair it is envisaged that there will be greater emphasis on the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus.

Governments that engage with Min Aung Hlaing’s military led administration can be charged of political if not legal complicity, for indirectly supporting widespread violations. UN reports explicitly warn that member states—including ASEAN governments—must ensure their actions do not “strengthen the military’s capacity to violate human rights.” However, adoption or enforcement of these stipulations is unlikely.

The issue of refugees is expected to remain contentious at the local level with India as district authorities in Lawngtlai, Mizoram State, India decided to ban foreigners, including displaced Myanmar refugees, from renting houses.  Although there are dedicated refugee camps in Lawngtlai District, some Myanmar refugees choose to rent houses in the town.

Political Developments

  Consolidation of the pro-democracy forces which are factionalised based on ethnic as well as territorial control is ongoing and is expected to be a long-drawn process due to inherent differences. The Union Government is taking advantage of this divide in targeting the faultlines – politically by attempting co-option and militarily by splitting the groups.

Meanwhile fifth anniversary of the People’s Defence Force (PDF) was celebrated by the National Unity Government (NUG) on 7 September honouring resistance fighters who served in military duties. More than three hundred people attended, including NUG Acting President Duwa Lashi La, Union Prime Minister Mann Win Khaing Than, representatives of the CRPH and NUCC, federal-unit governments and parliaments, allied resistance organisations, and PDF/PDO commanders and fighters. Separately, Kim Aris, also known as Ko Htein Lin, announced the launch of the “FREE HER” campaign calling for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, respect for her basic rights, access to her family and her unconditional freedom.

Political organization of pro-democracy forces is advancing. At a meeting of the Steering Council for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union (SCEF) on 8 September, the Sagaing Federal Unit, Mandalay Region, and Magway Federal Unit were formally accepted as new members. With the addition of these three new members, the SCEF which was originally comprised of the National Unity Government (NUG), the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), the Karen National Union (KNU), the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), and the Chin National Front (CNF) has now expanded its membership to a total of nine organizations.

The Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF) said that at its first congress, Chairman Khun Bedu stated that the organization’s next objective is to establish itself as a state-level armed force. KNDF also said it is actively collaborating both militarily and politically multiple pro-democracy organisations.

EAOs have established departments for education, health, agriculture, forestry, media, justice, law enforcement, audit, land management, animal husbandry, humanitarian relief, and support for the Civil Disobedience Movement. Defence. There are concerns of local dissent against forced language education by the public as disputes over language rights and local self-determination continued to surface on 10 September, in Paletwa Township, Chin State over a new Rakhine-language curriculum was introduced in place of Myanmar language for Grade 12 students.

Internal Security

 Fighting continues in multiple States and Regions including Karen, Myawaddy and Kachin the latter facing an offensive by two military divisions with logistics moving through the Chindwin, given that the land routes are suspect to ambushes and targeting. Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and allied resistance forces intercepted and destroyed approximately half the military convoy of 15 boats travelling upstream toward Bhamo. To clear a path in advance, fighter jets and Y-12 aircraft bombed resistance-controlled areas along the river route in Sagaing Region’s Katha Township and adjacent Shwegu Township in Kachin. The battle for control of Bhamo—Kachin State’s second-largest town—will likely be prolonged now that fresh military supplies have reached regime bases there. 

The Myanmar military launched Operation 4926 to retake territory from the Arakan Army (AA) on September 4, conducting simultaneous attacks on the border of Ponnagyun and Sittwe townships in Rakhine State, and the Kyaukphyu-Ramree border, in the direction of Sane town. A Irrawaddy Report quoting frontline sources stated that military columns were forced to retreat after heavy clashes in the opening days. Fighting is also ongoing in Tanintharyi Region between Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and the Ye Belu Battalion attacked Myanmar military troops advancing near Kywetalin and Yaphu villages.  

Resistance forces struck Tada-U Airbase near Mandalay with suicide drones, destroying warplanes and killing personnel. The Air Force uses Tada-U as its hub for airstrikes against resistance forces and civilians across upper Myanmar, including Chin, Kachin, Rakhine, and northern Shan states, and Magwe, Mandalay and Sagaing regions. Despite the drone attacks, Tada-U Airbase continues to operate, with independent monitor Enemy Air Route (EAR) logging flights by Yak-130s, FTC-2000G jet fighters and Mi-35P helicopter gunships.

Defence

The trajectory of the Myanmar military’s (Tatmadaw) counter-offensive is defined by aggressive, attempts to reclaim vital border infrastructure and economic corridors. Air and drone attacks forced conscription and rice-purchase restrictions against civilians along with punitive campaigns are common. The regime is benefitting from narrowing of front for operations as the Southern Shan state pacts has relieved sizeable number of units for fighting in other areas. As the wet season transitions, the junta has intensified highly visible operations—such as Operation 4926—specifically targeting China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) routes in Rakhine state to protect foreign investment hubs and international trade access.

To offset severe manpower shortages driven by collapsing frontline morale, the military is heavily relying on forced conscription. The Rangoon Scout Network (RSN) says forced recruitment, once concentrated mainly in Yangon’s outskirts and suburban areas, is now increasingly occurring in central parts of the city. Young and middle-aged people between 20 and 35 are reportedly being targeted especially at night. While indiscriminate airstrikes and riverine naval deployments have successfully disrupted Spring Offensive staging areas, the junta remains fundamentally unable to hold ground or re-establish administrative authority over liberated territories. 

Economy

Fuel shortages, natural disasters, and the humanitarian toll of the conflict kept pressing on daily life inside Myanmar. Fuel prices have risen again across Myanmar, including in Yangon, increasing by more than 100 kyats per litre. The price of 92-octane petrol reached 3,710 kyats per litre, while 95-octane petrol rose to 3,815 kyats per litre. The state of the economy in the resistance held area is largely penurious.