Myanmar Forecast and Projections ahead of military rigged elections

Representative Image from Wix Media: Fog of Elections

Holistic review of current trends and projections in Myanmar with rigged elections implies no relief to the people from violence and suffering.

International Relations.  US decision to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Myanmar nationals in the United States is expected to provide the State Security and Peace Commission [SSPC] a veneer of credibility to the domestic as well as international audience. Myanmar’s military regime benefits diplomatically, as Washington framed the move around “progress in governance and stability.” By citing upcoming elections, ceasefire claims, and the end of the state of emergency, the U.S. effectively granted Myanmar’s junta a reprieve ignoring the ground conditions. However, US formation of a strike force against scam centers in Southeast Asia, including Myanmar is expected to be resented.

Sustained Russian and Chinese support to the Myanmar military  is anticipated even as the United States is expected to review the overall engagement in light of Congressional pressure and the need to contain the widespread menace of scam compounds. Internationally, the junta hopes that regional powers—especially ASEAN members, China, and Russia—will accept the election as a return to normalcy, enabling diplomatic engagement and economic aid. Belarus President Lukashenko’s visit came just weeks before the December election, in an attempt to lend legitimacy to the polls.

Regional Relations China has emerged as the decisive external broker, pressuring armed groups to halt offensives, arranging withdrawals from hard-won territory, and pushing to reopen major trade routes with China. China’s focus will be on securing the China Myanmar Economic Corridor [CMEC] projects by coercing the Ethnic Armed Organisation [EAOs] to secede territory to the military. However, China is expected to face long term resistance to the restricted approach of securing interests without support of the people of Myanmar.

In line with the same legitimization of elections is also anticipated. ASEAN has very clearly indicated that it will not accept the polls. ASEAN ban on the military continues due to non observance of 5 P Consensus. Military unmindful of ban is likely to adopt a strategy of defiance and appeasement. However, with ASEAN Chair passing to the Philippines some concessions to the military government are possible. India’s policy, motivated by a security calculus, — prioritising border stability over principles is also likely to continue as past has demonstrated that engagement achieves better results than isolation.

Political Developments Myanmar’s military junta aims to use non inclusive elections to consolidate power, gain international legitimacy, and suppress opposition. Despite lacking control over large parts of the country, the junta seeks to portray itself as a stabilizing force by staging elections that exclude genuine democratic actors like the National Unity Government (NUG) and ethnic resistance groups. 

Enforced elections through Election Protection Law will be the norm. Election Protection Law imposes harsh penalties for any criticism or complaints related to the election, with sentences ranging from three years in prison to the death penalty.  Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) with support of the military hopes to come to power howsoever contested it may be. Domestically, the pre-election census and voter registration serve as tools for surveillance and coercion. Ultimately, the elections are not about democracy but about narrative control, regime survival, and strategic leverage in a fragmented and contested political landscape. The opposition NUG has at the same time failed to devise a strategy to counter the elections thus handing over the political space to the military for now. Yet how the grassroots situation manifests remain to be seen.

Internal Security. The clashes for control of territory holding and disruption of the polls between the Myanmar military and supporting militia and the PDF and EAOs is expected to continue. Gains in the Shan State are likely for the junta with the Chinese coming down heavily on the EAOs to secede territory captured to the miliary. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) is expected to face mounting criticism for deciding to allow junta troops back into Mandalay’s Mogoke and Shan State’s Mongmit townships under a Chinese-mediated truce. Crackdown on KK Park likely to be isolated incident with multiple Scam Centres likely to continue across Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos as actions appear driven by international pressure—especially from China—rather than systemic reform. Thus, while recent raids disrupted operations, the underlying infrastructure and incentives remain intact, making complete neutralisation unlikely without broader governance and enforcement reforms.

Defence Extensive use of air and helicopter attacks are likely to suppress the population particularly in areas where elections are planned in subsequent phases. With focus on the elections, military can be expected to lose ground as well as suffer casualties in the ongoing civil war in multiple zones in the country where it is thin on the ground.

Economy Myanmar's economic forecast for December 2025 is negative, with projections for continued GDP contraction and extremely high inflation. Analysts from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank predict a sharp economic downturn, driven by ongoing conflict, political instability, natural disasters, and shortages of power and labor. The economy is expected to contract in 2025, with forecasts of around (-3.0\%\) to (-2.7\%\) Inflation is expected to remain very high, with forecasts around (30.0\%\) in 2025, driven by supply shortages and economic instability.

Overall Long Term Forecast. Myanmar’s transition to a federal democracy in the long term is seen inevitable, however in the interregnum much pain is awaited. What appears to be most optimistic development is that return of the military as a Union government as in the past is highly unlikely for now. But this will be a part of the long-term transition which will involve much bloodshed and pain for the people. With the NUG promoting federation along with the EAOs the military’s approach will be strongly rebuffed. Current trends towards the same include systemic collapse of the military central administrative control, the institutionalization of parallel federal structures by the resistance and collaboration among EAOs and PDFs expanding resistance control of people and territory.