Jammu and Kashmir Forecast: People Centricity Focus Amidst Security Stability

Positive Trends	Negative Trends	Neutral
Counter Infiltration operations, Counter terrorism operations	Climate Change Mitigation. Pakistan Support to Terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir	Political environment in J & K and Ladakh

Despite low terrorist violence, challenges remain in Jammu and Kashir arising from Pakistan sustainment of cross border terror with deniability and decentralisation. The political situation remains sensitive to public emotions. Lack of transparency in timeline for restoration of full political rights in J & K as well as Ladakh will remain concerns. Increasing frequency of natural disasters need management of climate change impact holistically. Amongst this onerous tasks taking the people on board  would remain essential. Here is a review of the short term forecast in Jammu and Kashmir ahead

         Terrorism Trajectory. The Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi on being asked about situation on the Line of Control post Operation Sindoor responded that there is no let up in the support to infiltration from Pakistan.  "We will have to see the impact from a long-term perspective," the Army chief said. "Has state-sponsored terrorism stopped today? I don't think so. Why? Because infiltration attempts are still being made at the LoC. How many terrorists we have neutralised and how many have run away -- it's already reported in media," he added.

         Indeed, Following Operation Sindoor, Pakistan has restructured its terror strategy in Jammu & Kashmir to adapt to the dense security profile of Indian forces. There is thus likely to be less reliance on local recruitment and more on foreign operatives. These are likely to be highly trained, some of them former Special Services Group of the Pakistan Army who can operate for prolonged periods in inhospitable terrain supported by drones operating in small groups in the hinterland. While attacks may be limited, these will be possibly dispersed to keep the security forces continually in a quandary. Terror groups could continue to target soft civilian zones like tourist hubs to maximize psychological impact while avoiding direct confrontations. As the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has denoted, terrorists deliberately targeted the scenic Baisaran meadow in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam because of large tourist presence, relative isolation and thus the longer response time for security forces. An attack with high casualties may be avoided in the wake of possibility of another major offensive by India across the border, but low casualty incidents are likely to continue.

While the number of terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir has gone down to what the government is estimating around 60 in both the provinces, they are well trained and also have the staying power to withstand a long encounter by the security forces. At the same time, the model emphasizes deniability and decentralization, using dispersed cells and foreign fighters to reduce traceability. India in turn is employing special forces as well in the encounter but the harsh terrain and weather is delaying deployment and thus prolonged encounters are ongoing though restricted to a few per month.

         Local Support Local logistical support is evident with continued arrest of OGWs some with arms and munitions, while this remains in only a small section of the population it is enough to sustain terrorists who have infiltrated from Pakistan. Importantly the sensitivity in engaging with the people of Jammu and Kashmir especially in the Valley was evident with the recent incident of vandalization of the national emblem Ashok Chakra on a plaque at the Hazratbal Shrine. While, there has been a political storm over vandalization, questions have also been raised over placement of the plaque with the National symbol at a shrine regarded as one of the holiest in Kashmir. Such sensitive issues are best avoided and those responsible for the same need to exercise caution even as probes to determine the culprits is underway. A detailed causal effect analysis is essential in the context of any developments planned for sensitive issues and what could be seen seemingly a simple one as placing a plaque on a religious site. Possibility of deliberate attempt to muddy the political environment cannot be ruled out.

         Statehood. On the political front, Jammu & Kashmir’s restoration of statehood is a key demand that will keep the pot boiling so to say. On August 20, 2025, the Union government introduced the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation (Amendment) Bill in Parliament. While the bill’s full text isn’t public yet, political circles widely expect it to include provisions for restoring state status, fulfilling the Supreme Court’s December 2023 directive to do so “at the earliest”.

         Meanwhile in Ladakh in Kargil and Leh now jointly demand statehood, constitutional safeguards, and land and job protections. Historically, Leh dominated Ladakh’s identity, enjoying political patronage and visibility, while Kargil remained marginalized.

Representative Image Generated by Wix AI

Climate Change. Long term mitigation measures would be essential if the tragedy of frequent cloud burst and impact of heavy rains is to be minimised in Jammu and Kashmir as repetition of tragedies year on year marks lack of sustained control measures against impact of climate change. Mitigation and capacity building for disasters remains weak and the emphasis being on rescue and relief is expected to lead to loss of life and limb despite some proactive efforts at early warning by the Indian Meteorological Department [IMD]. Whether the administration at the centre and the Union Territory undertakes the same or continues with focus on rescue and relief remains to be seen.

Key Criticalities	Restoration of Status of State, countering new terror forms including drones, neutralising cross border support. Meeting Ladakhi aspirations, resumption of political and economic activity post disaster.
Key Uncertainties	Counter Terror response, Security in Jammu Region, Restoration of Status of State, Meeting aspirations in Ladakh.