Jammu and Kashmir Futures: On the cusp of change?

Representative Image Courtesy Wix Media

Political developments in Jammu and Kashmir with grant of statehood could usher in a change meeting aspirations of the people at large while Pakistan’s continued support to terrorism implies sustained focus on the security grid. Economy will face challenges amidst poor monsoon and drop in tourism.

Read Brief Background Integration Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh

Political Developments.

There is increasing buzz around Statehood status to J & K. Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha on July 17 called on Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the national capital with possibility of discussing the issue at the highest level in the run up to the Monsoon parliament session from July 21 to August 21.   The upgrade of Jammu and Kashmir has become increasingly politically sensitive amidst demands by Chief Minister Omar Abdullah amongst others.  With national opposition parties in the parliament likely to take up the issue of restoration, there will be greater traction to the demands by the regional parties in the Union Territory. The ruling National Conference (NC) is also expected to intensify criticism of the "dual power centre" in Jammu and Kashmir, asserting it impedes effective governance.

Meanwhile sense of inclusiveness in J and K may remain under pressure as well despite development projects as instance of ban on offering Eid prayers in Jama Masjid ahead of the July 13, Martyrs Day prevented Hurriyat Conference chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq from leading Friday prayers at Srinagar’s historic Jamia Mosque. Similarly, NC had applied to the District Magistrate Srinagar, seeking permission to pay homage to the martyrs on the same day which was denied. As a show of political force, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and NC legislators entered the premises in Khawaja Bazar, Nowhatta, climbing over the barrier to register a symbolic protest. While the security sensitivity of the administration is understood however it will impact public sentiment in Kashmir, given that local leaders will raise the issue.

At the same time, the two differing strands in Kashmir and Jammu will have to be watched out for. Importantly, grant of statehood may invite reaction from Pakistan as well as China which should be discounted from any considerations.

Terrorism and Border Management.

Offensive rhetoric by the Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir indicates that there is unlikely to be any reduction in state support to terror from India’s recalcitrant Western neighbour in Jammu and Kashmir. Infiltration of terrorist cells in Jammu as well as the Kashmir region is anticipated. Attempts to provide munitions and logistics to approximately 40-50 terrorists presently in the Jammu region through drone drops will be ongoing. These terrorists are expected to operate in multiple small groups south of the Pir Panjal range.  Counter-terror operations would thus be significant in Rajouri, Poonch, Kishtwar, Doda, and Udhampur. The pattern of Pak-based outfits' support to terrorist groups could vary with the likelihood of small-scale attacks on security forces rather than significant strikes, thus avoiding civilian casualties, thereby evading Indian cross-border response under the government’s new counter terrorism policy of compliance through sustenance of Operation Sindoor in a No War No Peace posture. Simultaneously, counter-infiltration operations would be intensified in the areas along the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir, given that at least three major infiltration attempts were thwarted in June.

Jammu and Kashmir has seen an extensive security deployment, including the use of surveillance drones and checkpoint inspections, for the annual Amarnath Yatra. The 38-day pilgrimage to the 3,880-metre-high shrine commenced on July 3 from the Valley via twin tracks — the traditional 48-kilometre-long Nunwan-Pahalgam route in Anantnag district and the 14-kilometre shorter but steeper Baltal route in Ganderbal district. The Yatra, which is a significant religious event for millions of devotees, will conclude on August 9.

The Indian Army has launched “Operation Shiva” aimed at neutralising terrorist threats by intensifying area domination, eliminating residual terrorist networks, and safeguarding the pilgrimage routes during the annual Amarnath Yatra as per the Army’s press release. The security of the Amarnath Yatra is crucial because it safeguards not only a religious pilgrimage, but also a deeply symbolic and emotionally significant journey for millions of devotees. One of the Yatra routes passes through Pahalgam; thus, extra caution is expected.

At the same time, there is a need for caution as terrorist groups could exploit gaps due to diversion of security forces for the Amarnath Yatra.

Recovery of damaged civilian structures due to Pakistan’s targeting during Operational Sindoor on the Line of Control [LoC], including unexploded shells, is expected to take time. Moreover, the trauma of cross-border firing incidents during the escalation before and during Operational Sindoor will continue to be felt in the coming days by the locals.

Ladakh.

The Union Territory of Ladakh faces a unique set of political challenges, rooted in its quest for identity, representation, and autonomy, since its separation from Jammu & Kashmir in 2019. Ladakhis—across both Leh and Kargil—have united behind a four-point agenda: full statehood for Ladakh, inclusion under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution (to protect tribal rights and land), separate Lok Sabha seats for Leh and Kargil, and job and land safeguards for locals. With the Central Government implementing new rules for reservations, it remains to be seen if the public at large in the Union Territory will feel vindicated. On June 3, the Centre announced new reservation and domicile policies for Ladakh, reserving 85 per cent of jobs for locals and announcing a 33 per cent quota for women in the autonomous hill development councils. There is also a change in the Lieutenant Governor of the Union Territory, Mr Kavinder Gupta from Jammu. Thus, how these factors play out remains to be seen.

Development and Economy.  

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, laid the foundation stone, inaugurated, and dedicated multiple development projects worth over Rs 46,000 crore to the nation at Katra, Jammu & Kashmir, and inaugurated the Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla Rail Line on June 6. Northern Railways commenced commercial operations of Vande Bharat trains between Katra and Srinagar. The Central Government has also launched a Rs 28,000 crore industrial incentive scheme to support growth in tourism, healthcare, manufacturing, and food processing.

Jammu and Kashmir is, however, facing a challenging summer cum monsoon season with sparse rains raising concerns of apple cultivators in apple-rich districts like Shopian, Pulwama, Baramulla, Kulgam, and Anantnag. As a result of climate change, Kashmir’s freshwater springs have dried up or shrunk over the last 20 years, exacerbating the water crisis. The dramatic drop in tourism after the Pahalgam terror attack, which led to a significant decrease in tourist footfall and revenue, is also expected to impact the economy. Meanwhile, retail inflation in Jammu and Kashmir stood at 4.38 per cent in June, significantly higher than the national average of 2.1 per cent, according to the latest data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).

Against the backdrop of significant development and industrial projects, there is also a need to mitigate a potential sense of alienation that may arise from neglect of local industry and agriculture. To overcome perceived sense of disaffection, development must take into consideration aspirations of the locals and foster a sense of belonging to the Indian polity. Youth engagement through education, employment, and dialogue is not just essential, but a strategic imperative for the region's future. Balanced development in both – Jammu and Kashmir regions is also called for apart from Ladakh.

Conclusion - Managing Central and Local Aspirations

The aspirations of the Central government for development and linking J and K and Ladakh with the national and international tourism mainstream is understandable. This will also lead to derecognition of Jammu and Kashmir as a disputed region which has been the standard narrative of Pakistan. However, at the same time, local aspirations and concerns of identity and marginalization will have to be addressed in a holistic manner to avoid resistance, political as well as militancy.