Israel and Iran: Howsoever the “Game of Chicken,” Ends, Nukes seem ultimate guarantor of security

Representational Image - Source Computational Intelligence

As Israel and Iran play, the “Game of Chicken”, in a fiery war of missiles and drones, powerlessness of global stakeholders in preventing wars is starkly evident as primary and secondary goals of multiple stakeholders clash.

Five days and counting [as on 17 June], West Asia’s [Middle East] most intense war – Isreal – Iran is seen no end even as both sides hardened their approach and there are no indications of backchannel afoot for ending the menacing attacks which have seen civilians being victims of missiles and drones reining down.

The devastating air and missile attacks were possibly expected though tactically Israel achieved surprise catching the entire top military brass of the Iran – the armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps [IRGC] by surprise. In the first wave the top military leadership was eliminated while at least nine key nuclear scientists were also killed in precision air strikes that have been Israel’s trademark just as Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah was taken out in Lebanon last year.

Penetration of the Iranian military and government network by Israeli intelligence agency the Mossad seems a new achievement for the country partly due to exaggerated confidence in Tehran of leaders who appeared to believe the picture of invincibility that they attempted to portray for the domestic audience.

Beyond strikes on the first day, the gains made by Israel seem to be relatively less spectacular destruction of a few oil facilities, strikes on Iran’s national broadcaster, public services and so on. There is an exodus of sorts from Tehran the national capital but this seemed to be somewhat orderly rather than in panic.

There are no indications of protests against the clerical regime – something that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had hoped for and the public in general is rallying to the flag so to say – seeing themselves victims of a ruthless enemy in Israel.

Whatever, little angst there was on the streets of Tehran against the clerical order and against Israel appears to have diminished.

Iran’s  Supreme Authority the octogenarian Ayatollah Khamanei who has been described as a physical as well as leadership target remains safe from the attacks so far.

Iranian air defences are shattered but what next is a poser for Israel’s command as air strikes cannot achieve a military victory against a nation as large and a people as determined and unified as Iran.

The real question is what if Khamanei is decapacitated, the line of succession is not as clear as the IRGC or the military.

But the prospects of a regime folding up and being replaced by moderates particularly someone of the Shah of Iran’s lineage are apparently not evident.

The other key question is destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities.

While Natanz nuclear facility has been substantially damaged, there are no indications of another deeply entrenched – Fordo suffering any damage and could well be in a position to overcome the last hurdle before Iran can produce a nuclear bomb.

A determination for the same may already have been made. Iran would have to walk out of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty [NPT] before that so what is ahead remains to be seen.

As for now both sides are playing the classic “Game of Chicken,” until one or the other is either exhausted or is willing to compromise.

The Game of Chicken is the classic high stakes brinkmanship indulged in by two adversaries so deeply entrenched as Iran and Israel.

Here being seen as one who compromises first or “chickens,” euphemism for weakness is the loser.

So far both sides seem to be moving towards self-destruction – Iran more so. Israel hopes that Iran will be the first to ask to stop the deadly exchanges with a compromise on the nuclear programme.

Much will depend on whether Iran has the necessary range of missiles and drones to continue with the series of attacks beyond the fifth day or more.

The sub optimal yet less deadly option is where both sides seek a compromise – a solution which will not be preferred by Israel which presently sees itself as having a winning hand.

A compromise will be a defeat for Israel, as Iran may retain a degree of nuclear enrichment capabilities which could lead to the possibility of developing nuclear weapons in the future.

Thus, how the game ends is unclear for now.

A weakened Iran will be in the interest of many global and regional actors – from the United States, Europe  to the Gulf Arabs and Turkey, but this may lead to a Frankenstein in Israel which may also be less desirable.

If this is achieved through mass casualties on the Iranian side or even Israel as it will only take a couple of  missile to penetrate Iran’s Iron Dome and other intricate shields to increase the level of deaths and injuries in Tel Aviv and other cities.

What is even more stark is the absolute lack of incentives for mediation be it Russia and China who have a long-term strategic partnership with Iran or other stakeholders, none appears to be effective or even willing to mediate.

This is a unique situation which the world finds itself – ending wars is no longer the forte of the United Nations or other key stakeholders of stability in the international system.

Ironically the fate of people and nations without nuclear weapons seems to hang in balance – Ukraine and now Iran being the prime examples as compared to India and Pakistan where interventions either bilateral or global sought a cease fire.

What ever be the outcome more nations will go for nuclear weapons in the future.