2025: A Year of Geopolitical Disruptions

5 is the year of the snake in the Chinese Zodiac. In China, snakes are symbolic and denote  complex symbolism of both good and evil. However, geopolitically in 2025, the vile element of the snake has been predominant. Thierry Chow, a Hong Kong-based feng shui consultant speaking to the CNN had said, “Year 2025 will be very different. The Snake — with a strong fire element, along with some metal and earth elements — is a zodiac sign that can cause significant clashes and conflicts. We need to be mindful of accidents as we approach the Snake Year. The overall atmosphere in the world will become slightly more chaotic.”

Indeed it appears that her predictions may well be true so far and let us hope that the second half of the year will bring about more positive transformations.

Here is a review of some of the key disruptive geopolitical developments so far as a grim reminder of the state of the World in 2025.

President Trump Takes Office.

January 20, saw the inauguration of Mr. Donald Trump as the US President. Any change in the highest office of the United States can result in transformation in multiple arenas from geopolitics to economics and military and President Trump did not disappoint setting off an unprecedented trade and tariff “wars,” with allies, partners, competitors and adversaries alike. The full ramifications globally are yet to unravel but this will be a disruption that will impact the developing and developed World.

While Mr. Trump assured that he will end the wars in the World particularly Ukraine in ‘One Day,’ after taking office the efforts have so far come to a nought while Israel has opened a new front this time directly with Iran, thus the multiple conflagrations are set to cause turbulence in the months ahead.

Escalation Ukraine War.

The War in Ukraine has escalated though in another dimension with Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb covert attacks decapacitating Russian strategic fleet, while the ground war grinds on. Russia hopes to make progress in achieving he objective of bringing Ukraine to accept sovereignty over areas seized and suture links with Europe and NATO. This despite some attempts personally by Mr. Trump and his team to bring about a cease fire. There is no end expected in sight for now.

Middle East:

The Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and the broader regional tensions involving Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon continue to be highly volatile. Despite attempts at ceasefires, airstrikes and fighting have continued. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria has also led to new dynamics in the region, with various rebel groups gaining territory. The Red Sea crisis, involving Houthi attacks on shipping, continues to disrupt global trade and the Iran and Israel long war is looming ahead.

Israel – Iran War the Ultimate Disruptor.

Israel’s attacks on the Iranian nuclear sites as well as command elements on the night of June 12/13 is indicative of well-planned and targeted strikes intended to paralyse the Iranian command and signal a new level of escalation in the conflict between the two Middle Eastern rivals. Israel’s statement that these are only initial strikes which could be followed up assume importance and indicates in the case of escalation there could be more strikes to come.

Iran has emphasised its right to respond adding that the United States should also bear the consequences for the aggression. Iran has launched several drones these are likely to take some time to reach Israeli mainland and thus the Israeli air defence systems will be well in place to face the challenge.

There is likely to be extensive impact in the Middle East disrupting oil flows. Oil prices have surged over 10%, with Brent crude spiking past $75 per barrel. This has rattled global markets and could strain economies heavily reliant on oil imports. Air traffic across the region, including over Iran and Iraq, has been disrupted.

India Pakistan

On April 22, 2025, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir killed 26 Indian tourists. India blamed Pakistan-based militants, specifically The Resistance Front (TRF), for the assault. This triggered a rapid escalation. India launched Operation Sindoor on May 6–7, targeting militant infrastructure in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan retaliated with airstrikes and ground assaults, leading to a four-day military confrontation dubbed the 100-hour war A ceasefire was brokered on May 10, but the diplomatic and economic aftershocks continue. Indian Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi has warned that India reserves the right to respond to any terrorist attack in the country placing Pakistan on notice and tensions seething.

South Korea: High Politics.

 In North East Asia, disruptions in high politics in South Korea marked the year. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached by the National Assembly in December 2024 following his declaration of martial law on December 3, 2024. The Constitutional Court of Korea upheld the impeachment on April 4, 2025, officially removing him from office. An early presidential election was called for June 3, 2025.  Opposition candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party won the election. His victory ushers in a new progressive administration in South Korea, following a period of intense political turmoil and a deeply polarized society.

Civil Wars

Sudan: The civil war in Sudan is entering its third year and is one of the world's most devastating humanitarian crises, with widespread displacement and acute food shortages. There is no end in sight of the fighting between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces.

Myanmar: Myanmar is experiencing an escalating civil war since the 2021 military coup. Multiple resistance groups are battling the military, and the conflict has intensified, leading to a severe humanitarian crisis.

Sahel Region: Countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger continue to face escalating conflicts driven by extremist groups, leading to significant displacement and regional instability.

Conclusion

The Year 2025 does not denote peace in many parts of the World, while there will be a concussion impact of ongoing wars and conflicts across continents from Europe to the Middle East, Africa and South Asia. What more drivers and motivations for peace are absent for now, thus the second half may see more challenges ahead.