Is Bangladesh Heading for a Feral State?

Representative Image by Wix AI

Predictions of stability in Bangladesh have become increasingly hazardous since June 2024, ever since the protests over reservations against progeny of the freedom fighters broke out.

The roller coaster in the past year and a half has seen a long-time leader [Sheikh Hasina] deposed and her rival Professor Mohammad Yunus taking charge as the Head of an Interim Administration. Yunus is supported by the students' movement, which had driven out Hasina and defacto by the Army aware of the challenges of any direct or indirect take over of the country given past legacy.

Yunus had the onerous task of building back Bangladesh, so to speak with the complex socio-political mix of the country’s culture with endemic violence in contested activities.

Bringing together diverse political forces was essential; however, Professor Yunus instead took the role of a divider, expanding existing political, religious and socio-economic faultlines.

The level of antipathy and undermining of the Awami League was anticipated by giving virtual charge of the country to anti-Awami League forces, both internal and external, which has led to the current crisis in the country, heading for elections in the coming two months in February next year.

India reached out to Professor Yunus several times, but he seems to have an antipathy toward Delhi and instead went closer to Pakistan, in particular, and to China as well.

The extent to which Yunus went to antagonise Delhi was evident with reference to the most sensitive North East region and allowing the Pakistan Army and the Inter Services Intelligence [ISI] entry close to the Indo Bangladesh border a space that had been guarded so far in the interest of Bangladesh as much as that of India.

Internally, apart from the Jamaat e Islami, many radical groups were given freedom to conduct not only anti-India but also anti-Bangladesh activity in an attempt to completely decimate the Awami League.

Indeed, these matters have now come to a head with the assassination of  Sharif Osman Hadi, Inqilab Moncho spokesperson. The death was blamed by the organisation on India, which in a statement announcing the same said, "In the struggle against Indian hegemony, Allah has accepted the great revolutionary Osman Hadi as a martyr."

Inqilab Moncho, emerged from the Students Against Discrimination, the Anti-Reservation organisations that had fomented the riots of July 2024, calls itself a cultural entity mobilising on various socio-political causes but the principal agenda is opposing the Awami League.

Painting the killing and escape of the alleged perpetrator as an alleged plot by India is par for the course for vigilante groups, as the Inqilab Moncho.

While other groups, such as the National Citizens' Committee, have transformed into the National Citizens Party, forming the third force in Bangladesh polls, groups such as the Inqilab Moncho remain outside the election spectrum but can use pressure on the government through bandhs, rallies and dharnas.

In the wake of the announcement of the death of Hadi, several acts of arson and violence were undertaken by disparate groups, as the police are yet to trace the perpetrators, but a common thread based on the targets of attack is opponents of the Awami League, liberal culture and free media.

Amongst these are the offices of The Daily Star and Prothom Alo, located in Kawran Bazar, Dhaka, Chhayanaut in the capital’s Dhanmondi area, which promotes Bengali culture, a house belonging to Awami League’s former education minister Mohibul Hasan Chowdhury Naufel and Dhanmondi 32, the house of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, former head of the Party.

It may be too simplistic to term these actions a response to Hadi's demise. These are the wages of wrath that have now ingrained in vigilante groups in the country in the name of Anti-Awami League and India, which will have grave consequences for Bangladesh in the coming days and months.

This raises serious questions about holding free and fair polls, where, the blame for any failure will fall on the Awami League and India.

The Interim Administration needs to remove its head from the sands of instability that have been created for it by internal and external elements who are against the Bangladesh State as well as the people, and seek to taper down rhetoric first and violence next, cracking down on every and any act of vandalism, arson and targeted attacks by whichever group is involved.

It would be also fair to seek the Awami League to tone down rhetoric by exiled leaders which promotes violence by its supporters despite the provocations such as the burning of house of the founder Sheikh Mujibur Rehman. While the Party may have been banned for now, awaiting a political comeback rather than violent instability may be the way ahead.

A conciliatory approach by all sides alone can prevent the country into becoming a feral state.