India Pakistan: Tomato Diplomacy Amidst Disaster?

Pakistan is facing a multi-dimensional disaster with 116 districts affected by floods of which, sixty-six are officially declared ‘calamity hit,’ as per the Dawn News report on August 28. 1,136 people have died, while millions are without shelter, food, and water. The magnitude of the tragedy has led Pakistan to seek international assistance.

International Assistance to Pakistan

The European Union announced 1.8 million euros in assistance for Pakistan, the ambassador to Pakistan, Riina Kionka, said on Twitter. “The EU is providing €1.8 million in humanitarian aid to families affected by flash floods across large parts of Pakistan,” the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations said on its website.

Najy Benhassine, World Bank’s country director for Pakistan, informed the PM about the immediate assistance of $350 million from the World Bank.

The US vows to stand by Pakistan in ‘hard times’: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has announced a $1 million aid package for Pakistan to help victims of the recent devastating floods. In a tweet, Secretary Blinken said, “We stand by Pakistan in hard times and offer our support to flood victims.” He said, “In addition to $100,000 in immediate relief, the US announced $1 million to build resilience against natural disasters, and we continue to work together to mitigate future impacts of the climate crisis.”

The UAE and Turkey are flying in assistance for relief and rehabilitation to Pakistan.

Indian Response

India has so far been silent but on 28 August, Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed anguish over the calamity indicating that the magnitude of the crisis and the suffering of the Pakistan people may lead India to provide aid and assistance even though no formal request has been made by Pakistan.

The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi expressed deep grief over the loss of lives due to floods in Pakistan. In a tweet, the Prime Minister said; "Saddened to see the devastation caused by the floods in Pakistan. We extend our heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims, the injured and all those affected by this natural calamity and hope for an early restoration of normalcy."

As the proximate neighbour and with huge capacity to provide relief, India could provide extensive support but for the strain in relations and the break in trade between the two countries in 2019, by Pakistan after India repealed the special status of Jammu and Kashmir.

The magnitude of the crisis particularly supply of fresh items – basics in the Pakistani kitchen – tomatoes and onions may lead for resumption of limited trade in these in case Islamabad makes a request.

Finance Minister Miftah Ismail of Pakistan hinted as much when he said on August 29 that the government could “consider importing vegetables and other edible items from India” to facilitate people after recent floods destroyed crops across the country as per Radio Pakistan. “We will open duty-free import, make it easier and I also want to say that we will consider importing through the land border with India because these prices [of vegetables] are not sustainable,” he said as per the news report.

India thus has a window of opportunity for softening up relations with relief to thousands of people who have been affected by floods in the country.

Indian aid could take the form of providing trade assistance in terms of fresh supplies such as tomatoes and onions the prices of which have skyrocketed. The assistance however is unlikely to change the overall dynamics of relations given disputes over Kashmir and Pak sponsorship of terror.

This is expected to take the form of emergency assistance that would be provided to the country given the dire humanitarian crisis particularly the loss of food crops in the wake of the floods. Much will depend on an outreach made by the Pakistani side demanding opening of trade and India is likely to respond positively.

Provision of food may also pave the way for a meeting of the two prime ministers in September on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan.

Pakistan PM Spurns Likelihood of Trade

The possibility of trade of fresh supplies by India was spurned by the Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif as per the Hindustan Times. “There won’t have been problems about trading with India but genocide is going on there and Kashmiris have been denied their rights. Kashmir has been forcibly annexed through abolition of Article 370,” Sharif said.

“I am, however, ready to sit and talk with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. We cannot afford war. We will have to dedicate our meagre resources for alleviating poverty in our respective countries, but we cannot live in peace without resolving these issues,” Sharif said. He added, “We shouldn’t be doing politics at this point, but it is a fact that minority rights are being subjugated in India... We want peace in the region. We are neighbours not by choice.” Sharif also emphasised that peace can “come only through sensible actions,” as reported by the Hindustan Times.

However, Mr Sharif has thanked the Indian Prime Minister in a tweet, thus raising hopes of a consideration due to dire state of the rescue and relief situation in the country. "I thank Indian PM Narendra Modi @narendramodi for condolences over the human & material losses caused by floods. With their characteristic resilience the people of Pakistan shall, InshaAllah, overcome the adverse effects of this natural calamity & rebuild their lives and communities," Sharif said in a tweet

Basics Won’t Change

As anticipated the adversarial relations between the two sides on issues such as Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan sponsorship of terror is unlikely to change in the near future.

Pakistan’s stance on Jammu and Kashmir remains unaltered three years after repealing of special status by India in the Union Territory now on August 09.

India continues to identify Pakistani support to terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir and beyond.

The internal political dynamics in both the countries may also not allow any major shift in policy on India Pakistan contested relations for now.