India Defence: Map Capabilities Not Just Production

Armoured Platforms Demonstrated by DRDO

A case for declaring defence capability accretion and not just production thereby highlighting the deterrence quotient while shaking up lethargic production agencies to action instead of an alibi of denial.

India Ministry of Defence is on a roll with defence production attaining new heights each year and the dividends from the Public Sector Undertakings increasing there is a degree of satisfaction in the Ministry top brass headed by the Defence Minister Mr Rajnath Singh and steered by the Defence Secretary Mr Rajesh K Singh who is currently dual hatted being Chairman of the Defence Research and Development Organisation or DRDO after the previous incumbent demitted office in May this year.

That the Indian administration believes that the premier defence and research organization in the country can function with a head from the civil service and not a scientist from the hierarchy of the organization speaks volumes of the importance that is being given to this facet, but that is another story.

On the industrial production there are some hard facts which have been put out by the Ministry of Defence flagged by the Defence Minister Mr Rajnath Singh.

“The Government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi, is according to the highest priority to the modernisation of the defence forces driven by a self-reliant and future-ready defence sector,” said Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh in his address to the soldiers through Akashvani on the eve of 80th Independence Day on August 14, 2026. 

Shri Rajnath Singh emphasised that the domestic defence production, which stood at just Rs 46,000 crore in 2014, has skyrocketed to a record Rs 1.78 lakh crore in the Financial Year (FY) 2025-26, nearly a four-fold increase over the last decade.

He pointed out that Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs) and other public sector entities accounted for approximately 76% of the total defence production, with the private sector contributing 24%, up from 22% in the previous fiscal year.

 The Defence Minister added that defence exports, which stood at a mere Rs 686 crore in FY 2013-14, surged to an all-time high of Rs 38,424 crore in FY 2025-26, an increase of over 5,500%. He described the feat as the most compelling evidence of Aatmanirbharta in the defence sector. “Today, India has 145 defence exporters, and our products are being exported to over 80 countries. I am confident that we will achieve our defence exports target of Rs 50,000 crore by 2029,” he said.

Shri Rajnath Singh also pointed out that the defence budget has risen from Rs 2.53 lakh crore in FY 2013-14 to Rs 7.85 lakh crore in FY 2026-27, which is a reflection of India's growing commitment to future defence technologies.  “Capital expenditure has grown from Rs 94,588 crore to Rs 2.19 lakh crore. Our focus on Research & Development has also intensified. The R&D budget, which stood at Rs 15,283 crore in FY 2014-15, has increased by 90% to Rs 29,100 crore in FY 2026-27,” he said.  

Presuming that the exports are also part of the overall defence production that weapons and equipment for the Indian armed forces would in the year 2025-26 touch Rs 1.40 Lakh Crore or US $ 15 Billion.

This would include capital acquisitions as well as stores component of the revenue budget which includes requirement of ammunition, security-related equipment, replacement of weapons and vehicles, their spares as well as ration, fuel, clothing and such other necessities for sustenance.

This was for 2025-26 for the Indian Army Rs 28654.0 Crores, the Navy Rs 11248.21 and the Air Force Rs 25000.00 Crore respectively.

The actual expenditure on stores will be evident during the budget presentation for the year 2027-28 next year though  the breakdown is not publicly available.

Nevertheless, at an estimate of Rs 40,000 Crore for the three services for revenue expenditure on stores such as munitions etc after deducting that for rations, fuel and so on, the overall production for capital accretion of the armed forces could be estimated to be Rs One Lakh Crore or US $ 10 Billion for 2025-26.

While not directly linked to the budgetary offtake on capital expenditure as given above as major platforms are multiyear procurement programmes, actual induction of these and thus capability development during FY 2025-26 can be published by the Ministry of Defence with a dedicated Department of Military Affairs now available for the purpose.

Some of the information may not be very palatable such as the possible lack of induction of combat fighters for the Indian Air Force in 2025-26 and the current Financial Year so far.

A public statement will shake up the establishments concerned in this case Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd and the Defence Acquisition Wing as denial is only providing them an alibi for procrastination and it is left to the air force senior commanders to point out the same, some only after hanging up the uniform.

Is this giving away confidential information to the adversary, not really as the mandarins in Rawalpindi Pakistan’s Military Intelligence or the Joint Staff at Beijing or Chengdu with the Western Theatre Command would have come to these conclusions through a detailed analysis of open-source information.

On the other hand, this could considerably enhance deterrence as capability declared is capability feared.