Atma Nirbharata in Defence: Caught Between Goodbye and Love You!

Defence Industry: AI Generated Representative Image

The month of August saw some contrasting trends in India’s quest for defence indigenization popularly known as Atma Nirbharata in Defence.

On one hand India’s top leaders the Prime Minister and the Defence Minister highlighted progress made in expansion of defence production and exports by the public and private sector heralding a new era to shake out of the tag of being one of the largest defence importers in the world.

On the other multiple foreign sales offers have been received or inter government agreements inked indicating that the the old yoke of imports is hard to discard even as attempts are being made to expand production by Indian defence industry.

This reality is well established over the decades now as not just the current National Democratic Alliance [NDA] government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] but also its predecessor the United Progressive Alliance [UPA] led by the Indian National Congress had raised similar expectations of expanding Make in India only to return to time tested imports to ensure that the capability of the armed forces and thus deterrence is not impacted.

In fact. the Congress faltered in the final year of its government in 2013-14 by dithering on procurement of the 126 Rafale fighters from France, which was compounded by the BJP’s similar vacillation for a decade plus as a result of which the same combat aircraft is now likely to be inducted into the Indian Air Force possibly by end of the decade or later.

Let us however look at the hard facts.

“The Government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi, is according the highest priority to the modernisation of the defence forces driven by a self-reliant and future-ready defence sector,” said Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh in his address to the soldiers through Akashvani on the eve of 80th Independence Day on August 14, 2026.

Shri Rajnath Singh emphasised that the domestic defence production, which stood at just Rs 46,000 crore in 2014, has skyrocketed to a record Rs 1.78 lakh crore in the Financial Year (FY) 2025-26, nearly a four-fold increase over the last decade. He pointed out that Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs) and other public sector entities accounted for approximately 76% of the total defence production, with the private sector contributing 24%, up from 22% in the previous fiscal year. The Defence Minister added that defence exports, which stood at a mere Rs 686 crore in FY 2013-14, surged to an all-time high of Rs 38,424 crore in FY 2025-26, an increase of over 5,500%. He described the feat as the most compelling evidence of Aatmanirbharta in the defence sector.

“Today, India has 145 defence exporters, and our products are being exported to over 80 countries. I am confident that we will achieve our defence exports target of Rs 50,000 crore by 2029,” he said. 

Shri Rajnath Singh also pointed out that the defence budget has risen from Rs 2.53 lakh crore in FY 2013-14 to Rs 7.85 lakh crore in FY 2026-27, which is a reflection of India's growing commitment to future defence technologies.

“Capital expenditure has grown from Rs 94,588 crore to Rs 2.19 lakh crore. Our focus on Research & Development has also intensified. The R&D budget, which stood at Rs 15,283 crore in FY 2014-15, has increased by 90% to Rs 29,100 crore in FY 2026-27,” he said. 

The Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi in his annual speech from the ramparts of the Red Fort on August 15, also highlighted the progress in defence production saying, “We had announced Mission Sudarshan Chakra in recent years, and work on it is progressing at a very rapid pace. Today, our defence exports have increased nearly 50-fold, and our weapons and defence equipment are reaching around 100 countries across the world”.

Indeed, there is no doubt that considerable progress has been made in expansion of defence production and exports, and the credit should go to the Ministry of Defence egged on the Prime Minister.

What then is the hitch and why India will continue to depend on defence imports for critical capabilities from fighter aircraft to submarines and even antitank missiles.

First here is a list of five major procurements from abroad announced in August just days after the Independence Day assertion by the leaders.

1.      French aircraft major Dassault Aviation through the government has submitted a proposal on 29 July for the 114 Rafale combat aircraft requirement of the Indian Air Force.

2.      India and the United Kingdom are close to signing an Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) for the procurement of British Lightweight Multirole Missiles (LMMs) for the Indian Army’s tactical units.

3.      Indian Army has inked an IGA with the US to procure Javelin anti-tank guided missile systems.

4.      Russia’s Rosoboronexport has submitted proposal for providing five batteries of S 400 air and missile defence system based on the Indian demand.

5.      By end of the year another major foreign sales agreement is likely to be inked that with German defence major Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems for six Project 75 (I) submarines.

Clearly the timeline for full induction of these systems is likely to be by 2035 and beyond and thus the dependence on foreign defence majors may well extend beyond the much-vaunted dream of Atma Nirbharata by 2047 to 2065 or later given the complex cycle of sustaining the imports from the foreign original equipment manufacturers.  

The pathway ahead is clear, while India will no doubt continue to expand defence production and exports – primarily of components in general and major platforms and weapons systems to the Global South – imports are inevitable and shaking off the tag of one of the largest defence importers maybe some decades away if at all.

And there is good reason for continuing defence imports after carefully evaluating the political risks, end user monitoring stipulations and supply chain continuity given necessity for the armed forces to field 4.5 and 5 Generation weapons and systems to sustain deterrence and prevent a misadventure by India’s growing list of adversaries.

The Government will have to thus also consider how far it can trumpet a narrative that is far removed from reality as far as imports are concerned as it only impacts India’s credibility on the global stage and amidst the closed loop of global defence industry.