Fifth Generation Fighter for the IAF: India’s Strategic Dilemma

AMCA Design Form

Despite the high decibel narrative on Atma Nirbhar Bharat and strategic autonomy, India faces multiple dilemmas to acquire capabilities for a fifth generation force. Here is a look at the Indian Air Force dilemma

India is actively considering acquisition of a fifth-generation fighter with the Russian Su-57E presently the frontrunner for direct acquisition and local production.

While the IAF has performed well during Operation Sindoor after clearance for attacks on military targets, the air-to-air capabilities of the Force have come up for some debate, with Pakistan claiming the downing of six fighter jets.

The IAF has dismissed these claims. Still, there is a lingering shadow of at least one Rafale likely to have been downed obliquely referenced by the Indian Chief of the Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan and the Defence Secretary Mr Rajesh Kumar Singh on separate occasions.

Here is a review of India’s options and reasons for the strategic dilemma-

Urgency – Stealth as well as Numbers.

The decision to acquire a fifth-generation fighter – essentially providing a high degree of stealth has assumed priority given that Pakistan Air Force [PAF] is set to induct Chinese J-35 stealth fighters, while the PLA Air Force already operates the J-20.

Apart from the necessity for a stealth fighter, the Indian Air Force (IAF) also needs to make up the squadron strength, which currently is estimated at 28-29 squadrons against a sanctioned strength of 42.5.

India’s indigenous fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is still a decade away from operational readiness. China’s rapid airpower expansion and Pakistan’s potential induction of Chinese fifth-gen fighters have intensified India’s need for stealth capabilities plus additional fighter squadrons in near real time.

AMCA is the ultimate solution for the IAF but is expected to be operational only by 2035, almost 10 years hence. This may be a long gap, rendering the IAF vulnerable to Chinese as well as Pakistan-acquired Chinese stealth fighters.

Towards this end, Russia Su 57 E, American F 35 and French Rafale F 4 standard are the options under consideration.

Russian Proposal for Su-57 E

Representative Image from Wix Media

Russia has proposed 20–30 Su-57E jets for quick deployment.  Concomitantly 60–70 additional jets could be produced at HAL’s Nashik facility by the early 2030s.

Russia has also assured source code access, enabling India to integrate indigenous systems like the Astra MK-1/2, Rudram, and Virupaksha AESA radar.

Also on offer is stealth, engine, and avionics tech to accelerate India’s AMCA program. A complementary offer of up to 40 Su-35M jets as a stopgap by Russia is evident.

Su 57 E has super cruise capability, as the test prototype demonstrated during Aero India 2024 in Bengaluru. However, there are concerns as the Su-57E’s stealth does not match US platforms like the F-35. Su-57 E only has frontal stealth as opposed to F-35. The Sensor fusion in Su-57 E is also said to be limited, though advanced. Past disruptions in Su-30MKI spare parts due to Western sanctions raise reliability concerns.

Whether this will be a hot topic for discussion or decision during the proposed visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India in December this year for the Annual Dialogue remains to be seen. It was during just such a visit in 2018 that India decided to acquire the S-400 air and ground missile system, which had performed admirably during Operation Sindoor in May this year.

F 35 – Is it on Offer?

While it is not clear if the United States has offered the F 35, though in February this year President Donald Trump did make a mention of the same in the joint statement with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington, relations between India and the US have ‘fallen off the sky,’ so to say in the past few months due to high tariffs and penalty of 50 percent for importing Russian oil. The US F-35 is undoubtedly more expensive and less customizable.

Rafale F 4 Under Consideration

Apart from the Su-57 E and the F-35, induction of additional Rafale is an option that the IAF is actively considering. Rafale F4 is a 4.5-generation fighter; it lacks stealth features critical against modern air defences.

But Rafale is ideal for rapid squadron replenishment, leveraging existing infrastructure and proven performance. The French are examining additional sweeteners with Rafale, including indigenous production or assembly, but a full technology transfer is not likely, nor is access to source code.

Strategic Considerations

The United States Trump Administration has claimed that India’s import of Russian oil is sustaining Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine and has thus imposed 50 % penalties, including tariffs.

In the past, the United States had threatened to impose CAATSA for the acquisition of S-400 systems from Russia.

What approach the US takes remains to be seen, given the fluctuating relations at the highest level between President Trump and Putin, as witnessed in the high drama of the provision of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine.

While US President Donald Trump had virtually assured Ukraine a supply of this critical asset, after a last-minute call with the Russian President, the supply to Ukraine has been called off. Whether the US will accept India acquiring the Su-57 E is an open question.

While India is looking to cut its reliance on imports, particularly from Russia, this is expected to spread over the next few decades, given the level of existing Russian inventory. There are also concerns about Russian technology and production capabilities due to constraints exposed in the past four years or so of the War in Ukraine.

Apart from the U.S., India’s European partners are likely to be highly sceptical of continuing Indian acquisitions of Russian fighter aircraft as well as other systems, such as the forthcoming S-500 advanced air and missile defence system.

While India needs to shed the legacy of dependence on Russian military imports, the current state of the IAF at least implies the need for a strategic pause.

India’s Hedging Strategy

In classic Indian strategic statecraft, New Delhi may go in for a hedging strategy of acquiring Rafales and Su-57Es, thus pleasing the French and the Russians in equal measure, offsetting any backlash from Europe while ensuring integration with platforms from these countries already with the IAF.

This leads the IAF with the massive task of integration of platforms with varied origins, a critical debility seen during Operation Sindoor.

It is a Hobson’s Choice for the government, and there are no easy options, even as Pakistan’s acquisition of the Chinese J-35 Stealth Fighter within this decade looms large.