Bangladesh India Relations – Entering A Slippery Slope?

After a promising start following the Bangladesh Nationalist Party [BNP] government's assumption of office under Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, India-Bangladesh relations are likely to face challenges as new differences are cropping up. Border push-ins and killings and river waters management will remain the immediate sore points, with India’s call for respecting the rights of minorities and consular issues adding to tensions even as High Commissioner-designate to Bangladesh, Dinesh Trivedi, arrived in Dhaka and will be assuming the appointment after acceptance of credentials.

On border management, Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) raised concerns over multiple deviations in India’s border fencing projects. It urged India’s Border Security Force [BSF] to halt unauthorised construction near the frontier during the 57th Director General (DG)-level Border Conference between the border guarding forces of Bangladesh and India, from June 8 to 11, at the BSF Headquarters in New Delhi. Bangladesh also called on India to stop push-ins and border killings.

The United Nations has also noticed tensions along the Bangladesh-India border as Dhaka accuses Indian authorities of attempting to force hundreds of people into Bangladesh without following established diplomatic and legal procedures, triggering concerns over human rights, border security and the future of bilateral relations. The dispute touches a politically sensitive issue in India, where alleged illegal immigration from Bangladesh has long featured prominently in political debates, particularly in West Bengal and Assam.

On the river waters, critical negotiations are in the offing as the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty nears expiry in 2026 amid rising climate-driven floods and drought risks across South Asia. The Farakka Barrage, commissioned in 1975 in India’s West Bengal, remains one of the most contentious symbols of the dispute. Built to divert water towards the Hooghly River to improve navigability of Kolkata Port, it has long been blamed in Bangladesh for reduced dry-season flow in the Ganges, increased salinity intrusion and ecological stress in the southwest region. With China also willing to support the Teesta project, there will be much attention on the revision of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty.

On consular issues, the Bangladesh foreign ministry summoned the Indian Deputy High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Pawan Badhe, and expressed displeasure after Prime Minister’s Adviser on Policy and Strategy Affairs, Dr Zahed Ur Rahman, was stopped by Indian immigration authorities at Delhi airport. Though he was later allowed to proceed, Zahed chose to fly back home. India, on the other hand, indicated that there was no delay in clearance. These issues could create some rancour.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's choice of Malaysia and China for his first foreign visits signals a possible reorientation that prioritises economic diversification from South Asia to South East and East Asia. In Malaysia an attempt to secure better terms for Bangladeshi workers—an area where India has limited leverage is evident. The visit to China carries a sharper message of the BNP government attempt to re-energise strategic and infrastructure ties with Beijing after years of Awami League–China cooperation. How Delhi and Dhaka resume engagement with a possible visit of Prime Minister Rahman to India remains to be seen?