Bangladesh Forecast September – Expanding Multi Vector Concerns
Six months of the BNP government under Prime Minister Tarique Rehman continues to be seen as a honeymoon period though surveys portray a decline in public support. Meeting diverse challenges that Bangladesh faces from diplomacy to internal security and economy, muddling through is not an option. Here is a review-
International and Regional Relations
Foreign Policy. Bangladesh is expected to face major challenges in managing foreign policy due to a mix of factors - inexperience of the top leadership including Prime Minister Tarique Rahman on issues of international and interstate relations, tensions with India with the extradition of Sheikh Hasina becoming a lodestone for practical engagement apart from the kerfuffle over visit of Prime Minister Rahman to Delhi, flawed priorities of engagement with diverse self-seeking players as Turkey and Pakistan. The foreign minister Khalilur Rahman formally assumed office as president of the 81st Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), pledging to work closely with member states and the media while stressing that dialogue, cooperation, and common ground must guide efforts to address global challenges. The onus will be on the two Ministers of State now to facilitate diplomacy.
Geography and India In framing the foreign policy, it is apparent that the BNP has failed to recognize geography as an important factor which is essentially linked to India over several issues from border management to economy, trade, river waters and thus subsistence, cultural connect as well as legacy. Today the relations with India are primarily being seen from the Sheikh Hasina prism – India’s proximity to the ousted former Prime Minister and her Party the Awami League. India in turn wavered in “allowing,” ousted Sheikh Hasina to use the forum of an interaction with international media in Delhi to make political statements including those by her son Joy Wajed which undermined the current BNP government accusing it of opening to Pakistan’s ISI. This is deeply resented by the Bangladesh government.
Vacillation on invitation by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi by Mr. Rahman may be due to domestic compulsions as National Citizen Party (NCP) Convenor and Chief Whip of the opposition, Nahid Islam said Sheikh Hasina was able to hold a press briefing in Delhi because of the BNP government's failures and diplomatic weakness. But there were options available such as attending outreach session of the BRICS Summit in his capacity as BIMSTEC chair which has not been availed.
Nevertheless, many critical issues need urgent interaction by the top leaders of India and Bangladesh and a visit by Tarique Rehman would establish a positive spiral. Chief amongst these is the Ganges Water Treaty 1996 due for renewal in December this year. The aims should be to achieve a predictable water sharing framework, reducing seasonal friction, and preventing disputes from escalating into political crises. Bangladesh will seek a "guarantee clause" in the renewed Ganges Water Treaty with India and is ready to approach international forums to protect its water rights, according to Water Resources Minister Shahiduddin Chowdhury Anee made the remarks at a seminar titled "Ganges Water Treaty: Issues for Renegotiation" organised by the Bangladesh Institute of Law and International Affairs in Dhaka. There is no visible progress in the same.
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International Challenges. On the international front Bangladesh is struggling to sustain exports, labour migration and development cooperation with Russia as US-led financial sanctions imposed after the Russia-Ukraine war continue to disrupt payment settlements. The United States has urged Bangladesh for public information of contracts available as part of a series of recommendations to improve fiscal transparency. Another key factor is Bangladeshi irregular migration to Europe. The Libya–Italy corridor remains the primary pathway: in 2025, 83% of Bangladeshi arrivals reached Italy via the Central Mediterranean Route, often departing from eastern Libyan hubs controlled by smuggling networks.
With an invite by Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman there is speculation that Bangladesh may become a formal part of the Mecca Joint Defence Framework while it does not appear that Bangladesh is likely to join the pact but even the debate over the issue is driving concerns in New Delhi.
Political Developments.
What the Survey’s Tell. The honeymoon period of the BNP government is expected to continue. Following Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir’s election as president, BNP Standing Committee member Ruhul Kabir Rizvi has been appointed the party’s acting secretary general. A national opinion survey on the first 180 days of the BNP-led government has found strong public approval for Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, but more cautious views about the government’s overall performance and the direction of the country. The findings were presented at a public opinion survey results presentation organized by Doppler Opinion Research at the BIDA office in Dhaka. The Doppler Approval Rating Survey 2026 found that 66.3% of respondents believe the prime minister is doing his job well, while 21.6% said he was performing badly. Another 12.1% had no opinion or declined to answer. The government’s overall approval rating was lower at 54.5%, with 32.9% giving its performance a negative assessment.
In another survey it was clear that Bangladeshis are evenly divided over whether the country is moving in the right direction, with public optimism declining since late last year, according to the latest International Republican Institute (IRI) survey. Public attitudes towards Bangladesh’s major political parties have shifted since last year, with the BNP gaining favour while Jamaat-e-Islami has lost ground, according to the latest nationwide survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI). As per Dhaka Tribune Report the June 2026 survey shows that 57% of respondents hold a favourable view of the BNP, up from 51% in October 2025.
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Surprisingly, the Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen said maintaining political unity and social stability, diversifying the economy, and creating a more favourable external environment remain key governance challenges for Bangladesh. While the remarks of an envoy on political environment in a host country are highly unusual, these in many ways also reflect reality.
July Charter and Rights Reset. BNP’s record on pursuing the July Charter has raised concerns with the Bangladesh opposition raising the issue multiple times in the parliament. More over critical areas where reforms are necessary have seen vacillation. Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) has said that proposed laws on the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) and enforced disappearances still fail to ensure independent, impartial, and conflict-free investigations into serious human rights violations. The anti-graft watchdog said several positive amendments were proposed by the parliamentary standing committee during its review of the National Human Rights Commission Bill, 2026 and the Enforced Disappearance Prevention and Redress Bill, 2026. However, it said fundamental weaknesses remain, particularly regarding the NHRC’s ability to independently investigate allegations against law enforcement agencies on its own initiative. BNP’s approach to the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) in 2026 indicates it is trapped in a legacy, and a result is unwillingness to loosen political control over the reform timeline.
Internal Security and Defence
Internal Security – Violence Continues. Bangladesh has seen a surge in piracy and associated criminal activity, particularly in the Sundarbans, where fishermen again faced extortion, abductions, and parallel “permit” systems run by pirate groups. After a year of decline, violence between armed groups in the Rohingya camps has risen. Since the murder of Rohingya armed group commander Kefayatullah Halim on May 5, there have been at least six incidents of killings, shootings, and attacks, including a gunfight that left a six-year-old child and his mother injured. Lt Gen (retd) Mohammad Mahfuzur Rahman, former chief of the armed forces division, said the recent tensions inside the camps could be linked to several factors, including competition among the groups over establishing dominance. He told The Daily Star that the government was working on a strategy in which the empowerment of Rohingyas, including political empowerment, capacity building, and leadership development, was being considered. With thousands camping in squalid quarters the emergence of crime in Rohingya camps was anticipated. This has a large national challenge and thus Bangladesh requires tightening access controls, strengthening policing, and expanding community-based vigilance as a combination of measures to control the same. A combined approach—security enforcement, social stabilization, and institutional strengthening—is essential for sustainable crime reduction in the camps whether the State has the will or capacity for the same remains to be seen.
Defence Perfunctory Reforms and Islamisation
RAB to SRB Reforms in the Defence and Security sphere are also facing challenges. Opposition members of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on the Home Ministry have submitted a note of dissent over the Special Response Battalion (SRB) Bill, saying more consultation with stakeholders is needed before abolishing the Rapid Action Battalion [RAB] Operationally, the government wants a force that retains RAB’s capabilities but operates under tighter legal oversight. SRB will absorb RAB’s personnel, assets, and responsibilities, and focus on counterterrorism, organised crime, cybercrime, narcotics, illegal arms, trafficking, and national security threats. It will have search and arrest powers but must hand over detainees to police stations promptly. The Grievance Redress Committee aims to ensure accountability and prevent past abuses.
Islamist Turn of Bangladesh Army. While it is the prerogative of the State to ideological foundations of the armed forces, the conservative Islamist turn of the Bangladesh Army may emerge as a concern as Chief of Army Staff General Waker-Uz-Zaman called for integrating modern and Islamic education, saying the separation between the two limits the role students can play in society. "If we fix the education system today, the society and nation we will have 30 years from now will certainly be healthy," he said while inaugurating the Army International Islamic Institute at the Jolshiri Abashon Project in Dhaka. Waker-Uz-Zaman also unveiled, through video teleconference, foundation plaques for Army International Islamic Institutes to be established in Barishal, Savar, Bogura, Sylhet, Chattogram, Cumilla and Jashore, according to an Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) press release issued. Bangladesh Army has distinguished as a secular force winning plaudits for UN Peacekeeping across the world, an Islamist image will dent the goodwill abroad.
Economy
Energy Crisis Energy crisis remains the biggest concerns as Bangladesh is paying its highest spot price for liquefied natural gas (LNG) since the onset of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, approving a cargo at over $28 per unit as geopolitical supply shocks and domestic infrastructure failures converge to create a severe energy crisis. The rate charged by BP Singapore is more than double the $12 rate the country paid before the war intensified. Energy challenges are also likely to impact on the economy as government’s decision to close shops, markets, and shopping centres by 8pm to conserve electricity will slow down commercial activity due to falling sales. Priority one is securing diversified LNG supply, expanding spot purchases from the US and Mozambique while renegotiating Qatar and Oman term contracts for greater flexibility, how far the government is working towards the same is unclear for now.
Growth Slowdown and Rising Inflation
Multilateral forecasts place FY26 GDP growth between 3.7% and 4.0%, with the ADB’s latest revision for FY27 at 4.5%a downgrade driven by energy shortages, banking fragility, and subdued exports. Inflation remains elevated: the ADB projects 8.8% in FY27, reflecting second‑round effects from higher energy and transport costs and exchange‑rate pass‑through.
Mounting Debt and Energy Constraints
Debt management will remain a core issue for Bangladesh as government’s total debt stock reached Tk 22.6 lakh crore at the end of March, a surge that is set to increase debt servicing burden and put pressure on budget implementation.
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