Bangladesh Foreign Policy Conundrum

Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman

 Bangladesh is expected to face major challenges in managing foreign policy due to a mix of factors - inexperience of the top leadership including Prime Minister Tarique Rahman on issues of international and interstate relations, tensions with India with the extradition of Sheikh Hasina becoming a lodestone for practical engagement apart from the kerfuffle over visit of Prime Minister Rahman to Delhi, flawed priorities of engagement with diverse self-seeking players as Turkey and Pakistan. With the Foreign Minister now also the President of the UN General Assembly, strengthening of the Foreign Ministry was essential and towards this end Humaiun Kobir’s elevation as State Minister for Foreign Affairs was expected to sharpen Bangladesh’s diplomatic posture.  But Kobir’s dual citizenship controversy risks weakening Bangladesh’s Foreign Ministry.

While rhetorically the foreign policy is described as “Bangladesh First,” it clearly ignores the interests of the country which are in sustaining engagement with India rather than adopting a semi hostile posture against New Delhi and indulgence with other regional actors as China and Pakistan. Some key metrics will underline the importance of the India Bangladesh relations. Bilateral merchandise trade reached approximately US$11.39 billion in FY2024–25, with Bangladesh exporting goods worth US$1.76 billion to India and importing US$9.62 billion. India provides 15.6% of Bangladesh’s electricity, with Adani Power alone supplying 8.63 billion kWh in 2025, a 38% year on year increase. Bangladesh already imports 2,500–2,656 MW through multiple Indian suppliers—Adani, NTPC NVVN, Sembcorp, and PTC India—and seeks further expansion of cross border transmission links and renewable cooperation. This is particularly significant given the challenge of energy security faced by the country at present.

Apart from India another primary relationship for the country is Myanmar yet there have been limited initiatives taken in the direction.

In framing the foreign policy, it is apparent that the BNP has failed to recognize geography as an important factor which is essentially linked to India over several issues from border management to economy, trade, river waters and thus subsistence, cultural connect as well as legacy.

Today the relations with India are primarily being seen from the Sheikh Hasina prism – India’s proximity to the ousted former Prime Minister and her Party the Awami League. India in turn wavered in “allowing,” ousted Sheikh Hasina to use the forum of an interaction with international media in Delhi to make political statements including those by her son Joy Wajed which undermined the current BNP government accusing it of opening to Pakistan’s ISI. This is deeply resented by the Bangladesh government. In a statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, “Bangladesh is outraged that the absconding convicted genocider [sic] Sheikh Hasina was allowed this evening to engage in live interaction with the media in New Delhi where she and her henchmen launched venomous vitriol against the State of Bangladesh and her people.” It also questioned the timing of the event. “On a day when the people of Bangladesh are observing the second anniversary of the July Revolution, this interaction by Sheikh Hasina on Indian soil stands as an affront to the sovereignty of Bangladesh and a grievous insult to the martyrs of the July Revolution,” the statement said. “Dhaka deeply regrets that in spite of concerns conveyed apriori to the Government of India about the likely ramifications of this event on the reset of our bilateral relations, this public event was permitted to be held,” read the statement.

Rebuffing of invitation by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi by Mr. Rahman may be due to domestic compulsions as National Citizen Party (NCP) Convenor and Chief Whip of the opposition, Nahid Islam said Sheikh Hasina was able to hold a press briefing in Delhi because of the BNP government's failures and diplomatic weakness.  But there were options available such as attending outreach session of the BRICS Summit in his capacity as BIMSTEC chair which has not been availed.

Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) Battalion-47 has intensified public awareness activities along the Kushtia and Meherpur borders to prevent push-ins from India, illegal border crossings and smuggling even as attempts at push in by the Border Security Force [BSF] are alleged by the BGB from time to time which will remain a sore point. A positive event in August was meeting of Head of India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) Parag Jain with Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s Defence Affairs Adviser Brig Gen (Retd) Dr AKM Shamsul Islam in Dhaka. What transpired in the meeting is unclear for now.

Nevertheless, many important issues need urgent interaction by the top leaders of India and Bangladesh and a visit by Tarique Rehman would establish a positive spiral. Chief amongst these is the Ganges Water Treaty 1996 due for renewal in December this year. The aims should be to achieve a predictable water sharing framework, reducing seasonal friction and preventing disputes from escalating into political crises. Bangladesh will seek a "guarantee clause" in the renewed Ganges Water Treaty with India and is ready to approach international forums to protect its water rights, according to Water Resources Minister Shahiduddin Chowdhury Anee who made the remarks at a seminar titled "Ganges Water Treaty: Issues for Renegotiation" organised by the Bangladesh Institute of Law and International Affairs in Dhaka. There is no visible progress in the same.

On the southeastern front the Rohingya repatriation is stuck in a limbo. Bangladesh no doubt faces an unfair and unsustainable burden hosting over one million Rohingya, with rising economic, social, security, and environmental pressures. With the 12 lakh-strong Rohingya refugee population growing and international funding shrinking, Bangladesh faces a mounting burden of hosting the persecuted minority from Myanmar. Bangladesh will have to shoulder an increasingly heavy financial, diplomatic and security burden as conditions in the camps in Cox’s Bazar are deteriorating and the prospect of quick repatriation is fading. According to UNHCR data, the Rohingya population in Bangladesh stood at 12.02 lakh as of July 31 this year. Of them, 39,856 were from the 1990 influx, while more than 10 lakhs arrived following the massive 2017 influx. The Bangladesh government expressed strong displeasure over an August 15, 2026, statement by Myanmar's military-backed Ministry of Foreign Affairs which downplayed the number of refugees, conditioned repatriation on security in Rakhine State, and referred to the Rohingya as "Bengalis" to imply they are illegal settlers from Bangladesh. Out of 8,28,824 total names submitted by Bangladesh for verification, Myanmar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that it processed 4,26,545 cases as of July 31, 2026.

The Bangladesh government is preparing to establish a clear “red line” backed by credible deterrence along its eastern border, said Brig Gen (retd) AKM Shamsul Islam, adviser to the Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces Division. “Bangladesh is gradually developing its preparedness along the eastern border in response to repeated airspace violations and cross-border shelling linked to the ongoing conflict in Myanmar’s Rakhine State,” he said. 

On the international front Bangladesh is struggling to sustain exports, labour migration and development cooperation with Russia as US-led financial sanctions imposed after the Russia-Ukraine war continue to disrupt payment settlements.  The United States has urged Bangladesh to make government procurement contract information publicly available as part of a series of recommendations to improve fiscal transparency. Another key factor is Bangladeshi irregular migration to Europe. The Libya–Italy corridor remains the primary pathway: in 2025, 83% of Bangladeshi arrivals reached Italy via the Central Mediterranean Route, often departing from eastern Libyan hubs controlled by smuggling networks.

With an invite by Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman there is speculation that Bangladesh may become a formal part of the Mecca Joint Defence Framework while it does not appear that Bangladesh is likely to join the pact but even the debate over the issue is driving concerns in New Delhi. Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rahman has said there is no reason for other countries or communities to be concerned if the Saudi Arabia-Türkiye-Pakistan “Makkah Pact” is expanded, describing it as a mechanism for the self-defense of the global Muslim community and an internal matter among Muslim countries. Bangladesh has requested Qatar to prioritise the supply of LNG to Bangladesh as soon as the Strait of Hormuz reopens and maritime movement resumes. So how these issues are framed remains to be seen.

Amidst international flux and regional turmoil, Bangladesh Foreign Policy faces multiple challenges. Bangladesh First is no doubt an effective summation of the priority however implementation is expected to face multiple challenges with inability demonstrated by the BNP leadership to  balance some times contradictory and controversial factors both domestic and international.