AI Doesn’t Win Wars: Resolute Political and Military Will Does

Representative Image Created by Wix AI

Two critical elements in war are the human factor and chance. The resolute will of the people, government and military in the Gulf War 3.0 as well as in the War in Ukraine since 2022 determined success in staving off the challenge from much larger and technologically superior force which no AI model can predict.

One preliminary observation that can be drawn a day after United States and Iran agreed to a 14 Day cease fire on April 07 is the importance of resolute political and military will in prosecution of success in war. While it may be too early if any of the three sides – US, Iran or Israel have won or lost the war, it is evident that Iran’s political and miliary leadership has partially checkmated the US and Israel plan of a regime change or partial capitulation in Tehran and the installation of a favourable administration with some even contemplating helicoptering in the former crown prince Reza Pehlavi.

What we know now is that the Iranian regime is in place even though the nation is in economic ruin, the United States is forced to accept a cease fire on Iran’s terms if the 10-point agenda proposed by Tehran publicly is anything to go by. As for now Iran may have checkmated technologically the most sophisticated militaries in the World – United States and Israel.

The emerging bedrock of these militaries has been infusion of Artificial Intelligence [AI]. The entire AI leadership in the US the likes of Palantir, Anthropic, Open AI and so on very efficiently and effectively from Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR)to Autonomous Systems and Combat, Command Control and Logistics and so on.

The net result was in facilitating managing the hundreds of air and drone sorties, missile launch and air defence of assets at military based across the Gulf. Without AI support the US and Israeli military would not have been able to manage the extended workflow of operations taken at the scale at which these were launched during the 39 Days of war with Iran.

Indeed it is believed that AI supported the US military in high level decision making as well.

Then why do we see the humiliation of the United States President accepting the proposal of 14 days cease fire with 10 points by Iran for mediation.

Technology is a war enabler and not a war winner, this needs to be understood particularly by the Indian Armed Force moving headlong to embrace technology and work on themes such as ‘cognitive warfare’ when the objective of the military is to project maximum combat power to deter and if forced to fight defeat the enemy on the battlefield.

Then what is the formula for winning wars – Clausewitz defined it in the seminal work On War

Firstly War is politics by other means, thus is to be used when all other strategems are exhausted and cannot be the initiation for political change in the adversary something that Israel and the United States attempted with the first blow targeting Iran’s Supreme Authority – Ayatollah Khamanei on February 28.

Secondly the course of war is determined by what is famously known as the Clausewitzian Trinity -three forces that drive conflict: primordial violence, hatred, and enmity; chance and probability; and the government implying logic or reasoning for war.

Image Source Kevin Blatcho

A more simplistic correlation when related to success and failure in War is – People, Military and Government.

For winning a war either will of the people and the government or capability of the military has to collapse.

AI cannot and may not even in the future be able to determine what could lead to this collapse.

For there is a human element and chance which no model of Artificial Intelligence can predict.

This is evidence enough in the Gulf War 3.0 as well as the War in Ukraine since 2022. The Resolute will of the Iranian and Ukrainian people, military and government in the face of catastrophic losses remains unbroken thus contributing to the success in staving off the challenge from much larger and superior forces equipped at least in the case of the United States and Israel with cutting edge technology including AI.