Afghanistan Pakistan Cease Fire: Simulating the Durand Dilemma

Map Courtesy National Geographic Society

After the most intense clashes over the past four years, Afghanistan and Pakistan have agreed to a cease fire, central to the same is the Durand Line, unrecognized by the Taliban which splits the Pashtun homeland.

While the clashes are an outcome of  Pakistan’s allegations of Taliban support to the TTP, central to the same is the Durand dilemma a large question.

A current perspective on likely status of the Cease Fire and Stability through Multi Factor Simulation and Forecast.

After days of intense clashes from October 09-15, which also included physical assaults between troops resulting in multiple deaths, Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to a ceasefire on October 19 during negotiations in Doha, Qatar.

A statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar highlighted that the. “two sides agreed to an immediate ceasefire and the establishment of mechanisms to consolidate lasting peace and stability between the two countries”.

Follow up meetings are proposed in the coming days likely on October 25 in Istanbul for ensuring sustainability and implementation of the cease fire. The Cease Fire was mediated by Qatar and Türkiye, seen as key interlocutors acceptable to both sides.

Following the Qatari ministry’s statement, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif confirmed the deal on X stating, ‘“Cross-border terrorism from Afghan territory will cease immediately.” Both countries will respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said the truce was “the first step in the right direction”.

“We look forward to the establishment of a concrete and verifiable monitoring mechanism, in the next meeting to be hosted by Turkiye, to address the menace of terrorism emanating from Afghan soil towards Pakistan. It is important to put all efforts in place to prevent any further loss of lives,” he posted on X.

Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban spokesperson, said under the terms of the agreement, “both sides reaffirm their commitment to peace, mutual respect, and the maintenance of strong and constructive neighbourly relations”.  

“It has been decided that neither country will undertake any hostile actions against the other, nor will they support groups carrying out attacks against the Government of Pakistan,” he said and refrain “from targeting each other’s security forces, civilians, or critical infrastructure”.

While in general terms the cross border attacks and clashes between the two sides have been framed as Pakistan’s response to Afghan Taliban’s support to the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan [TTP] and India Afghanistan rapprochement, there are multiple vectors and stakeholders involved including the two adversaries thus a simulation and forecast of the Cease Fire assumes importance and covered briefly as follows-

Tehreek Taliban Pakistan [TTP]. The TTP is a key vector for given Afghan Taliban support to the group in triggering Pakistan strikes which is not the first time that this has happened but the October attacks were the most intense with heavy casualties on both sides.

Givern Taliban’s ideological, legacy and operational linkages with the group which had provided considerable support to the Afghan counterpart during the long fight with U.S. and NATO forces in the country, reining in the TTP will remain a challenge for Kabul.

Moreover, how much influence Afghanistan has over the TTP a conglomerate of multiple factions is unclear so far.

Taliban is likely to insist on Pakistan engaging in talks with the TTP which is an option supported by the Pakistan Tehreek Insaaf [PTI] government in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but is resented by the Pakistan Army and the Inter Services Intelligence due to past failures and mistrust. The talks option is unlikely to be initially acceptable to Pakistan.

Another is relocation of the TTP into Afghan hinterland that appears to be impractical for now as Taliban will seek extensive funding for the purpose and willingness of the terrorist group to move away from the home base in the tribal belt is unlikely and also may turn out to be perfunctory.

Afghan Taliban is also claiming that Pakistan Army and the ISI is supporting Islamic State of Khorasan Province [ISKP] as a counter to Pak allegations of the TTP, so how this plays out remains to be seen?

A temporary hold out on the TTP by the Taliban until the differences are resolved – that is Pakistan agreement to negotiate with TTP or relocation may be an option.

There will be a closure only if Taliban enforces sanctuary denial, joint border monitoring is verified, and crossings reopen with tighter CT cooperation.

In the case of failure of the Cease Fire unleashing of attacks by the TTP in Pakistan and consequent response by its air force can be anticipated.

India Afghan Relations. Afghanistan India relations have rapidly moved forward during the visit of Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to New Delhi with multiple advances on trade, economic, humanitarian relations and a visit to the Deoband seminary in UP which is the ideological hub of the Taliban. Islamabad has in the past as well during the time of the Republic Government sought Kabul to downplay relations with Delhi, but this has not worked and may not work this time as well, as Taliban 2.0 is fiercely independent and is not expected to brook any indulgence on sovereign decisions of foreign policy.

In response to a question about India’s alleged role in recent tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Afghan defense minister dismissed the accusations as baseless. He stated: "These accusations are groundless. Our policy will never involve using our territory against other countries. We maintain relations with India as an independent nation and will strengthen those ties within the framework of our national interests”. India’s Ministry of External Affairs has strongly rejected Pakistan’s attempts to implicate India in the conflict, calling it a habitual deflection from Pakistan’s own internal problems. India maintains support for Afghanistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

In this scenario, parallel de-escalation is essential for a favourable outcome. In the absence of any breakthrough in India Pakistan relations, there is likely to be increase in mistrust between Pakistan and Afghanistan as well as India. Heightened risk of insecurity in Pakistan could lead greater miiltarisation of the border, increase in terrorist attacks in India and on the contrary of TTP in Pakistan arising from contagion risks.

Economy. The critical factor for both countries is economy. For Pakistan with economic engagement blocked on the Eastern front with India, Afghanistan provides a key route to Central Asia. In addition, energy projects are also expected to come on stream such as CASA 1000 and TAPI. For Afghanistan blocking of trade by Pakistan bears a heavy cost. The touch point here again is India and Afghanistan wants Pakistan to open a direct trading channel to Delhi a difficult proposition due to current breakdown in relations between the two countries.

However, this remains a vital factor in positive as well as negative terms.

Failure of the cease fire is expected to lead to border closures, spike prices, disrupt aid and exports. Informal movement of goods will increase empowering smugglers and drug traders amongst others. In the longer term this will lead to Afghanistan having to adopt the longer and more expensive options for trade through Iran and Chabahar to India. Investor interest is expected to reduce for the easiest accessed to a landlocked Afghanistan is through Pakistan’s Karachi port for now.

Refugees

On the refugee front on positive side, in Doha  Pakistan Defence Minister Asif said that Afghan refugees holding valid visas and documents would be allowed to stay in Pakistan. However, many undocumented refugees would continue to be repatriated, he added. Eruption of conflict will lead to internal displacement in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, the latter as the Pakistan Army undertakes counter terrorism operations forcing civilians to vacate their homes. Pakistan could deport more refugees including those with valid visas arbitrarily cancelling the same. There are also concerns over a humanitarian crisis emerging as more refugees pour in from Pakistan to Afghanistan during the winter.

China

China’s concerns over the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict center on regional stability, security, and its strategic interests. China views the recent ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan as a positive step, emphasizing the importance of peace for the broader region. Beijing is particularly worried about the potential spillover of militancy and terrorism into its western Xinjiang region, as instability could threaten its Belt and Road Initiative projects and investments in both countries. China thus welcomed the ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan. In a statement posted on its official X account, China’s Foreign Ministry said Beijing would continue to play a constructive role in promoting dialogue and improving relations between the two neighbouring countries”.

Sustainment of the cease fire will reduce the risk of terrorism against Chinese projects and thus the proposal for extension of the CPEC to Afghanistan may suffer a setback so would some CPEC 2.0 projects in Pakistan’s tribal belt and Balochistan which are likely to be suspended on the positive side it may result in progress of integrating Afghanistan into CPEC.

Central Asia

Central Asia is looking for a solution to its landlocked dilemma for decades through Afghanistan and Iran. Iran offered the Chabahar port which has come under U.S. sanctions apart from lack of undeveloped land axis for access. Afghanistan provides access to Pakistan’s ports of Karachi and Gwadar and a MOU for trilateral railway link from Uzbekistan and Afghanistan has been inked. In addition, there are projects such as the CASA 1000 and TAPI in various stages of development.

A sustained Afghan Pakistan conflict will result in these projects remaining still born. Other economic vectors are also expected to see concerns.

Gulf Countries and Turkey

Viewed from the perspective of Gulf countries as Qatar, successful implementation of a Pakistan Afghanistan cease fire will firm in the credentials of Doha as a key mediator in South Asia even as it has lost traction in the Middle East after the failure of the Hamas negotiations now taken over by Egypt.

Turkey also envisages just such a role with Pakistan being a key strategic partner and increase the strategic space in Islamabad rivaling that of Saudi Arabia.

Geopolitical Impact

Terrorism emanating from Afghanistan, supported by or due to weak control spaces by the Taliban is a major concern for the United States and Russia amongst others.  Afghan Taliban commitment to placing a cap on activities of the TTP would be a positive indicator of willingness of Kabul to prevent the country from becoming a hub of global terrorist actors as in the past.

For the United States, the much favoured Trump option of Bagram would certainly need a review.

Greater tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan would also imply increased humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, putting pressure on the United Nations as well as other major donors as the European Union.