Afghanistan Under Taliban: Short Term Stability, Long Term Concerns

Representative Image Wix AI of Kunar EQ

Taliban’s policy of isolation from the World in all vectors from universal human rights to diplomacy while demanding reparations and economic assistance raises long term concerns of Afghanistan continuing on a downward spiral of global instability hotspots. With higher priorities, nations are choosing pragmatic engagement with an increasingly harsh regime that is denying normalcy to its own people who have suffered decades of vicissitudes of violence and penury. Thus, short term stability should not beguile us from fathoming the perils that lie ahead. Here is a Forecast for September 2025

          International Relations. United States President Donald Trump’s decision to cut funding for Afghan resettlement programs is expected to leave thousands vulnerable, raising concerns over U.S. credibility, future alliances, and the safety of women in Afghanistan. This could critically impact support to Western forces in future deployments in external theatres. Countries as Switzerland on the other hand have resumed aid operations as well as sought Taliban assistance in relocation of migrants from Europe. Deportations are expected to continue as Europe is facing challenge of several incidents of criminal attacks by Afghan migrants despite facing criticism from rights groups. European countries are expected to conduct pragmatic engagement with a view to provide humanitarian aid seek assistance and deport antisocial migrants without formal recognition. Taliban hostage diplomacy is expected to gain some concessions but these will remain nominal. Qatar will continue to play a key role despite the setback in negotiaitions

          Taliban Approach to International Relations. Taliban duality in international relations is evident. The De Facto authorities engage with the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) rejecting UNAMA’s criticism—especially over human rights violations and repressive laws like the “Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice.” UNAMA has documented over 800 abuses against former officials. Taliban will simultaneously rely on UNAMA for diplomatic legitimacy, humanitarian coordination, and international engagement. This paradox—reliance amid resistance—reflects the Taliban’s need for external validation and resources, even as they resist oversight of internal governance and rights issues.

        Regional Relations. A China mediated rapprochement seems to have got both Pakistan and the Taliban together diplomatically on the same table but fundamental differences as support to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and unrestricted deportations and trade restrictions will continue to mar relations. Pakistan will continue to accuse Afghanistan of providing financial and logistical support to militant groups, including the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Border clashes can be anticipated as Taliban accuses Pakistan of air strikes in violation of sovereignty. China’s leverage—economic incentives, infrastructure investment, and diplomatic recognition will create space for engagement, but investments from Beijing will not flow until there is a degree of security guarantee. Taliban officials will engage with Central Asian Republics where positive relations are expected to continue. Despite Taliban claims of reduced drug production however, Tajik authorities report a rise in synthetic narcotics like methamphetamine and opioids entering the country. On the other hand, relations with Iran will be strained due to refugee deportation and water issues. India will sustain pragmatic engagement hoping to leverage the same vis a vis archrival Pakistan.

          Political Developments. The Taliban’s decision to drop the “acting” title from all ministers marks a symbolic shift from transitional governance to a claim of permanent rule. By formalizing their cabinet, the Taliban signal internal consolidation and a rejection of international expectations for inclusive or interim arrangements. This move reinforces their ideological narrative of having “liberated” Afghanistan and established a stable Sharia-based system.

          Denial of women’s rights is expected to continue including education for women even over the next half a decade as this is not included in the Taliban five-year development plan. There is a growing divide emerging between northern and southern ethnic communities in Afghanistan, rooted in racial, political, and governance disparities. The Taliban’s Pashtun-dominated leadership—concentrated in the south—has marginalized northern ethnic groups like Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras. This imbalance is deepening resentment in the North, where communities feel excluded from decision-making and national representation. The discrimination by the Taliban against the Hazara is also growing. However, these communities being divided are unable to pose a challenge to the Taliban whose unity provide strength.

          A marginalized political opposition mainly based abroad is challenged by limited resources, lack of unified leadership, and Taliban dominance in urban areas. Despite these constraints, resistance persists, driven by ethnic grievances, repression, and economic collapse. While not yet a strategic threat, growing dissent and efforts to unify opposition forces could reshape Afghanistan’s future political landscape.

          Internally Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada’s leadership will remain unassailable as he commands deep respect within the Taliban despite his reclusive nature due to his religious authority, ideological purity, and strategic discretion a major rebellion against his leadership is not anticipated. However, lacking public contact, Hibatullah could be exploited by other Taliban commanders for their personal political advantage. Greater focus on madrassas by the Taliban including offering education for girls which prioritise Quranic memorisation, Islamic jurisprudence, and Arabic language instruction is expected to create an extreme conservative Afghan society in the future.

          Internal Security. Afghanistan ranks 158th in the 2025 Global Peace Index, highlighting weak governance, ongoing humanitarian crises, and political instability despite reduced conflict in the country in the 2025 Global Peace Index. The UN Security Council report has warned that the Khorasan branch of the Islamic State group, known as ISIS-K, continues to pose a major threat to Afghanistan and regional stability, with growing reach into Europe and Central Asia. The United Nations has also warned that Syrian fighters involved in conflicts during 2024 may relocate to Afghanistan, creating new security risks for the country and the wider region. Russian has indicated 23,000 international fighters in Afghanistan. The Taliban will continue to dismiss concerns raised by the UN Security Council over the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan, insisting external terrorist organisations are not active. Financial aid from Gulf countries to the Taliban, intended to support the relocation of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) families, has been suspended which may result in cadres of the group continuing in the provinces in proximity of the Durand Line thus posing considerable threat to Pak tribal areas.

          Defence. Increasing capacity building in drones and induction of new recruits who are ideologically indoctrinated will be evident. Taliban will undertake drone operations and may look at counter drone capabilities in the future with growing threat envisaged. A standardized uniform for Taliban border forces is now being planned which may help distinguish official border personnel from irregular militias, reducing confusion and enhancing legitimacy.

          Economy. Afghanistan's economic situation is critical, but the Taliban refuse to acknowledge that it is due to the multiple policies that they have laid down which prevents foreign investors from visiting the country for serious investment proposals. International sanctions and lack of recognition will severely restrict banking access and investor confidence Persistent instability and attacks deter long-term assets, as seen in the termination of the oil and gas contract with the Chinese. Absence of legal guarantees, transparency, and property rights make Afghanistan a high-risk economic environment. The massive humanitarian challenges faced by Afghanistan with over 23 million dependents for food security on international agencies the economy even with best intentions may not be able to cope up with the demands.