Afghanistan: Country Forecast - Four Years of Humanitarian Chaos Under Taliban

Representative Image by Wix AI

Afghanistan under the Taliban's fourth year of rule continues to face complex ordeals in the humanitarian, economic and diplomatic sphere while the Pashtun Ethnic Sharia model of political governance is being strengthened each day which may create long term challenges for normalization of the State.

In July 2025, the mass of refugees deported from Iran in the wake of the Israel/ U. S. Iran war has emerged as the single biggest challenge given the vast numbers and lack of Taliban capacity to provide adequate support. International humanitarian agencies have been hampered by a draw down in aid inflow and lack of on ground capacity due to Taliban restrictions. There are limited positives in this scenario as Afghanistan people are caught in a regime that seeks to perpetrate the tyranny of controls using Sharia as an ideological prop.

International Engagement Forecast

Taliban or Defacto authorities in Kabul as the United Nations designation goes for the self-declared Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is expected to benefit from the ongoing geopolitical differences between the United States and the West on one hand and Russia/China on the other. The latter will continue to expand engagement with the Taliban to occupy strategic space which is vital abutting China, Iran and Central Asia. Global terrorism, radicalization and drug proliferation remain common concerns for the West as well as Russia. These factors are expected to drive engagement with Kabul. Overall, attempts for integration by the international community particularly the United Nations will continue with a view to influence commitment to Universal Human Rights and inclusiveness though success is likely to be limited. Towards this end Taliban officials will continue to be invited for various meetings and forums particularly by China and Russia, the latter having recognized the regime in Kabul.

United Nations ‘Mosaic  plan’ envisages gradual engagement with the Taliban with a view to influence greater rights commitment by the regime is another driver that is active. Meanwhile Afghan civil and political resistance have criticized the Mosaic plan as sacrificing universal human rights principles and opening an unhealthy alliance with the Taliban. This voice remains unheeded for now. 

Humanitarian aid and assistance will also remain one of the key drivers for engagement by the international community particularly the European Union [EU] despite concerns on human rights particularly women’s education. The United States where a bill to stop all forms of assistance to the Taliban is in the offing may see a reduction of support while vacillation on providing special visas for Afghans who supported the government and NGOs during the Republic era will remain highly controversial. The EU will coordinate with Central Asian Republics aid and security programmes for Afghanistan. Meanwhile Norway is also taking a lead in reaching out to the Taliban given the philanthropic approach of the country.  UN agencies are expected to face massive shortage of funds for the humanitarian programme including food security and health services. With competing global crisis demanding funding, Afghanistan may see relative neglect.

Refionl Engagement Forecast

China’s growing economic engagement with the Taliban-led Afghanistan is reshaping the country’s fragile economy—though not without controversy or complications.  Cancellation of an oil and gas exploration contract by the Afghan Economic Advisory Council indicates that the Taliban is unwilling to accept violation of contractual obligations.

Relations with Pakistan  will continue to be a mixed blend with negative issues such as border clashes, deportation of large number of refugees and Islamabad’s accusation of support to the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan or TTP dominating the discourse. Visa facilitation will remain the positive aspect along with trade and transit. China will continue to attempt reconciliation of relations between Pakistan and the Taliban.

Deportation is a major challenge emanating from Iran as well. Partially an impact of the Iran and US/Israel war in June, the effect is evident with thousands deported in the past months. Overall Iran like Pakistan is taking a view of shedding the burden of refugees from Afghanistan after decades of support. How far this is pursued and how this will impact long term Afghan and Iran relations remains to be seen.

Central Asian Countries concerns on threat of terrorism, radicalization and drugs will be offset by an attempt to expand economic engagement to overcome the double landlock impact. Of these, Uzbekistan’s push for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Afghanistan is driven by a mix of economic opportunity, regional stability, and strategic geography. An FTA helps lock in this advantage by reducing tariffs and easing trade barriers, especially for Uzbek exports like electricity, cement, and manufactured goods.

India is expected to sustain humanitarian and development commitment to support Afghanistan despite the barriers of transit and trade due to tensions in India Pakistan relations.

Through these different vectors of dissension at the geopolitical and the regional level, Taliban is demonstrating pragmatism in engaging with all sides with the main objective of expanding scope for formal recognition and economic benefit.

Political Stability Forecast

Overall objective of the Taliban is to establish an ethnic Pashtun interpreted sharia rule in Afghanistan in the long term. Towards this end, the education system will be overhauled with proliferation of madrasa education including for girls. The Taliban’s approach to education in Afghanistan is deeply controversial and highly restrictive—especially when it comes to gender and content. While there is focus on expanding infrastructure for schools, there are increasing restrictions on the curriculum emphasizing on Sharia while reducing the modern component. There are intrinsic differences over this approach between the old conservatives led by Taliban Supreme Leader Mullah Hibatullah and the younger leaders as acting Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani. Intra Pashtun differences are also evident between the Kandaharis and the Haqqanis from the Zadran belt, thus multiple serrations are evident. These differences were publicly exposed in June on the occasion of Eid al Adha. While the Supreme Leader called for unity, Eid Gatherings reflected just the opposite with three way meets held one in Kandahar and two in Kabul, the latter being the most surprising. Moreover, some key leaders as acting interior minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and the defence minister Mullah Yaqoob seem to have given these meetings a miss, indicating that they do not want to possibly get into a controversy.

Taliban is also attempting to consolidate their system of governance nearly four years after they dissolved the former Afghan Constitution and nullified all laws passed by the previous government. However, with all ministries headed by the regime loyalist lacking professional expertise, governance will face challenges.

The Taliban's popularity in northern Afghanistan remains low, especially in provinces like Badakhshan and Balkh, where resistance groups and former government loyalists still operate. Many residents in these areas resent Taliban rule due to restrictions on civil liberties, economic hardships, and crackdowns on dissent as well as poppy cultivation claiming that the latter has been permitted in the South despite edicts.

The National Resistance Council for the Salvation of Afghanistan (NRC) constituting members of the former Republic mainly Tajik, Uzbek and Hazaras are working hard to maintain international relevance through a mix of diplomacy, media outreach, and symbolic resistance. The NRC has released a political roadmap calling for a pluralistic, democratic, and decentralized Afghanistan. This vision is meant to reassure international stakeholders that there’s a viable alternative to Taliban rule and position itself as a government in waiting. So far, there is no traction internally as well as externally towards this group primarily based abroad.

Internal Security Forecast

Taliban suppresses armed dissent with a heavy hand. Several international authorities have warned of the growing threat from a haven for terrorists to regional and global security in Afghanistan. The challenges emanating from activities of groups like ISIS-Khorasan and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have been flagged. In the recent past Russian President Vladimir Putin has also highlighted the threat of terrorist groups to CSTO and CIS countries in security forums with these. The Taliban on the other hand has denied the presence of these groups and has assured that the country is secure from threats to regional and global stakeholders.

The Taliban cites low level of existing violence in the country as evidence. On the other hand, lack of action by the Taliban against regional and global terrorist groups some of whom are its allies cannot be ignored. Humanitarian agencies also navigate significant challenges to support workers in Afghanistan, despite the risks. Given security concerns, organizations like the UN and Red Cross rely on local staff and community-based networks to deliver aid discreetly, reducing exposure to violence. International bodies are pushing for better protections for aid workers, including negotiations with the Taliban authorities to allow women to work in humanitarian roles again.

Defence Forecast

The Taliban attempts to reorganize and regroup forces from a terrorist force to conventional military capabilities is continuing. Taliban is acquiring diverse defence capabilities including use of drones,  refurbishing weapons and vehicles left behind by NATO many of which have found the way in the global and regional arms bazaar as well. Lacking any significant territorial threat, the capabilities are focusing on border management thus clashes will be evident on the Durand Line with Pakistan which is not recognized as a border by the Taliban

Economy Forecast

The economic situation in Afghanistan is expected to further deteriorate due to attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, leading to limitations of trade and surge of returning migrants. Decline in humanitarian support will act as a major factor in draining the economy. Amidst this concern, Taliban is expanding mining and infrastructure projects as well as trade while agriculture may weigh down due to lack of alternative cash crops to poppy which has been banned.

Criticalities and Uncertainties

Key Criticalities	Management of refugees evicted by Pakistan & Iran. International recognition of Islamic Emirate. Formation of inclusive government of Islamic Emirate, restoration of governance and economy, security and Daesh violence containment. Universal human rights. Disaster management, Terrorist sanctuaries and support to global and regional terrorist groups.
Key Uncertainties	Taliban and US relations under Trump Administration. International and regional recognition, inclusive governance, acceptance of Taliban restrictions by public, terrorist sanctuaries and threat of ISK. Taliban Pakistan Relations