Taliban Pakistan Clashes, Backdrop, Simulation and Forecast

Afghan Taliban on the Durand Line Source Bakhtar News Agency

After recent Taliban Pakistan clashes on the Durand Line and beyond here is a simulation of the drivers and the possible way ahead.

A week is a long time in the regional politics of the Western half of South Asia – Afghanistan Pakistan and India.

Just as Afghanistan Taliban’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi was in Delhi on the first visit by a Taliban minister to India, escalation on the Pakistan and Afghanistan front was possibly pre-ordained resulting in bloody clashes, air and artillery strikes resulting in several casualties.

Given tensions between the two sides due to alleged Taliban support to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in carrying out a series of terrorist attacks in Pakistan, Islamabad was wont to send a strong signal and the visit of Muttaqi to New Delhi provided a timely opportunity to warn the Eastern as well as the Western neighbour. This came in the form of drone and air strikes in Kabul ostensibly targeting the TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud Mehsud, whose survival or otherwise is not confirmed.

Afghanistan responded a night after targeting Pakistani positions along the Durand Line in Kurram, Kunar, Nangarhar, Nuristan provinces and Tirah Valley. Pakistan also reported multiple infiltration attempts from Sra Kwand in Angoor Adda area of South Waziristan.

Pakistan in turn reacted carrying out attacks in along the entire stretch from Chitral to Angoor Adda in South Waziristan with artillery and air strikes in the Afghan provinces of Helmand, Kandahar, Khost, Paktia, and Paktika.

Pak news sources reported that precision strikes had destroyed the 2^nd Kandak [Battalion] headquarters and the posts of Aziz, Rawat, and Naka among others. “By midnight, 11 Afghan posts were neutralised and 27 hostile targets were destroyed, with heavy explosions heard deep inside the Afghan territory,” Pak reports claimed.

Pakistan continued the strikes till early morning destroying enemy sites at Barbcha, Ali Dost, Malgai Koh, Turkmanzai Top, and Kharachar Fort forcing Afghan forces to withdraw from several forward posts after they suffered major losses. By 4 AM the firing had ceased on both sides.

Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) claimed over 200 Afghan Taliban and affiliated terrorists killed or TTP which it refers to as Fitna al-Khawarij.

In turn Zabihullah Mujahid, spokesperson for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan on the other hand said that 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed and 30 others wounded. Both sides blamed the escalation on terrorists groups supported by the other.  

"In the interest of regional peace and security, we call upon the Taliban government to take immediate and verifiable actions to neutralise the terrorist groups, inter alia, FAK, FAH and Daesh operating from their territory. "Otherwise, Pakistan will continue to exercise its right to defend its people by persistent neutralisation of terror targets. The Taliban government should shun any ill-begotten notions and prioritise well-being, peace, prosperity and development of the Afghan people over irresponsible sabre-rattling," the Pakistan ISPR statement noted.

The spokesperson of the Islamic Emirate also announced in a press briefing that, “Training centers for ISIS-K have been established in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and trainees are being brought there through Karachi and Islamabad airports. Our findings show that the attacks in Iran and Moscow were orchestrated from these centers,” Mujahid said.

He further alleged that recent ISIS-K attacks in Afghanistan were planned from these bases in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and called on the Pakistani government to hand over key ISIS-K members to the Islamic Emirate. “According to our information, the leader of ISIL-Khorasan, Shahab al-Muhajir, and his close associates — Abdul Hakim Tohidi, Sultan Aziz Azzam — and the ISIL central-cell liaison and so-called head of the ‘Sadiq school,’ Salahuddin Rajab, are present and in hiding on Pakistani soil. The Islamic Emirate urgently asks that these individuals either be handed over to the Islamic Emirate or be expelled from Pakistan so that the Pakistani government fulfills its responsibility and meets its commitments.”

Mujahid also blamed some elements in Pakistan who are not supporting stable relations with Afghanistan. Mujahid said: “It appears that, unfortunately, some specific groups near Afghanistan’s borders do not welcome the improved security situation and social, political, and economic progress inside Afghanistan. They have therefore embarked on conspiracies. This particular group constitutes a dominant faction within Pakistan’s military”.

He seemed to suggest that Taliban supported cross border attacks were on Islamic State hideouts in Pakistan which had been used to target not only Afghanistan but also Russia, Iran and preparations were ongoing for strikes in Europe.

The spokesperson of the Islamic Emirate also announced that, at the request of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, hostilities between the two sides have been halted. “Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia called for an end to the fighting, and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan complied by halting the war. However, this morning we received reports that attacks have been carried out by Pakistan. If these attacks continue, Afghanistan reserves the right to defend its territory,” Mujahid said.

In a statement, Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry said that "reducing tensions is essential for peace and stability in the region." Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei expressed concern over Pakistan-Afghanistan clashes and called for both sides to hold urgent talks to address the tensions. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also issued a statement: “The Foreign Ministry spokesperson emphasized that the Islamic Republic of Iran places great importance on maintaining peace and stability in its surrounding environment and is prepared to offer any assistance to reduce tensions between the two neighboring and Muslim countries.”

Simulation and Forecast

The Taliban Pakistan flare up is a natural culmination of months of recrimination by both sides even as each rejected the other’s account of several casualties. Afghanistan has claimed that the fighters carried out a “retaliatory operation” in response to earlier Pakistani airstrikes that hit Kabul and Paktia provinces.

This comes even as relations have steadily deteriorated as Islamabad accuses the Taliban of sheltering TTP militants, while the Taliban deny the charge and accuse Pakistan of violating Afghan sovereignty through repeated airstrikes.

The timing of the clashes as Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi was visiting India — Pakistan’s longtime rival — to attend a series of meetings in New Delhi has also raised some questions as to symbolism vis a vis upgrade of India and Afghan resistance.

Pakistan’s adoption of punitive strike strategy using the Indian play book of Operation Sindoor caused some heavy casualties and damages on the Afghan side.

Devoid of air defence, countering air and drone strikes was not feasible for the Taliban. On  the other hand, Taliban attacks have also claimed Pak casualties at 23.

Pakistani military has also claimed it had seized 19 Afghan military posts and “terrorist hideouts” in retaliation for what it described as “unprovoked” attacks by Afghan forces.

In the wake of these developments, normalisation of cross border attacks in response to terrorist incidents may become the new normal for Pakistan which will place the Taliban lacking effective air defences at a disadvantage.

Pakistan is also expected to place a squeeze on trade between the two countries as is evident from closure of border crossings and hundreds of trucks carrying perishables stranded on both sides of the Durand Line.

More deportations of Afghan refugees can be anticipated by Pakistan placing Afghan humanitarian resources under severe constraints.

The TTP is a sword arm for the Afghan Taliban. The group could be restrained for the time being till normalization of relations.  The India factor may act as a deterrent for the Taliban to escalate in addition to the TTP. Indian mission and other assets in Afghanistan could be vulnerable.

While Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran have offered mediation, how much pressure they can exercise on both sides remains to be seen? U.S. President Donald Trump having successfully negotiated the Gaza Deal is also looking for an opportunity to end the tensions between Afghan Taliban and Pakistan.

All in all situation portends sustenance of tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan in the months ahead and any pause will only be temporary.