Bashar al Assad is gone and Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rapid advance and take over of a series of cities in the Bashar al Assad run Syria from Aleppo to Damascus is now a part of Syria's recent history as the people face a long road to stabiity amidst the three point fragmentation.
The Group has attempted to portray a degree of moderation claiming full rights for women and ability to govern the fractured space in a country that has seen a shift from clientelism from Russia and Iran to Turkey.
That is the reality of post Bashar al Assad Syria as continued fragmentation is expected to mark the uncertainities ahead. As the International Crisis Group notes, "Turkish-backed militias are fighting Kurdish-led forces in the north east. Gunmen have targeted minorities in Hama, Homs and Latakia with killings, looting and harassment. Badly needed aid is held up by U.S. sanctions. ISIS cells lurk in the desert" and recommends that, "Outside actors should help HTS seize the opportunity that still exists: most Syrians remain hopeful about the new leadership and eager to cooperate in keeping the country on a peaceful trajectory".
This again will be a new form of clientielism for the troubled state in the Middle East falling in the axis of influence of global and regional actors ranging from the United States, Russia on one hand and Iran, Turkey and Israel on the other.
Review of the Progress by HTS - Trac Terrorism
Trac Terrorism notes that the HTS is making significant strides in presenting itself as a viable, comprehensive governing body in Syria, with its arrival in Damascus symbolising the next phase of its transformation from an armed Salafi-Jihadist organisation to a political force aiming to fill the void left by the Assad regime. Unlike earlier arrivals of fragmented groups from southern Syria, HTS is leveraging its shadow governance experience from Idlib, spearheaded by the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), to position itself as a legitimate contender for Syria’s future government. Central to this effort is its dual-symbolism approach—displaying both the Salafi-Jihadist shahada flag and the nationalist Free Syrian tricolour during a high-profile meeting between former Assad officials and SSG representatives. These two flags symbolise the ideological spectrum HTS is attempting to straddle: the pan-Islamist aspirations of its core Salafi-Jihadist supporters and the more nationalist sentiment popular among ordinary Syrians opposed to Assad.
The Shahada Flag and the Free Syrian Tricolor: A Dual Strategy
The Shahada flag reaffirms HTS’ Islamist roots, borrowing from a legacy of global jihadist movements such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS). While its association with transnational Salafi-Jihadist ideology is undeniable, HTS has sought to adapt this image, maintaining Islamist credentials while simultaneously downplaying controversial internationalist ties. In parallel, its cautious acceptance of the Free Syrian tricolour marks a pragmatic pivot to broaden its appeal. While Syrians widely embrace the tricolour as a symbol of opposition to Assad, it contrasts sharply with HTS' doctrinal disdain for nationalist symbols. HTS’ dual-flag strategy reflects its effort to reconcile these opposing forces and mitigate criticisms that it remains a foreign-dominated entity with Salafi-Jihadist ambitions. Yet, the reluctance to fully embrace nationalist symbols highlights the persistent tension between its Islamist ideology and its ambition to govern a diverse, fractured Syria.
Authoritarian Governance and Persistent Contradictions
Despite these symbolic shifts, HTS’ credibility as a governing entity is undermined by its authoritarian practices, including suppressing dissent, deploying morality police, and running torture prisons. While adopting nationalist rhetoric and symbols may placate some, it cannot erase the group’s Salafi-Jihadist origins or its track record of human rights abuses. Efforts to merge Islamist internationalism with Syrian nationalism—such as the brief experiment with the "Shahada tricolour"—failed to resonate with either camp. Instead, the two-flag approach now serves as a calculated compromise, allowing HTS to appear inclusive without alienating its hardline base. However, such symbolic concessions belie the reality that HTS’ legitimacy remains deeply tied to its Islamist ideology and its support from foreign fighters committed to a broader Islamic caliphate. This dual identity is both HTS’ strength and its limitation as it seeks to transition from a militant group to a political force.
Technocratic Modernism and Concessions to Turkish Influence
Beyond flags, HTS has used its governing body, the SSG, to promote an image of technocratic modernism, employing logos and designs that blend Islamic art with contemporary aesthetics. These visual elements underscore the SSG’s claim to administrative competence and a vision of modern Islamic governance. However, omitting contested territories such as Hatay Province from its stylised maps suggests a quiet acceptance of Turkish sovereignty—a concession likely driven by HTS’ dependency on Turkish logistical support. This implicit acknowledgement of Turkey’s dominance, coupled with HTS’ muted response to other sovereignty challenges like Israeli airstrikes, raises doubts about its capacity to protect Syria’s territorial integrity or assert meaningful independence on the global stage. Ultimately, while HTS has refined its political messaging, its attempts to rebrand itself as a legitimate government remain fraught with ideological contradictions and practical vulnerabilities that call into question its long-term viability. [Trac Terrorism Note Ends]
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