Pakistan Forecast August 2025: Complexities of Hybrid Governance

TTP Attack: Representative Image

Pakistan’s positive projection of developments in the country from the political to the economic and the military as “grand success” of the hybrid regime underlines significance of management of information to sustain the narrative despite the grim situation faced on many fronts. Here is a likely forecast of developments ahead.

         International Relations. Pakistan is expected to expand traction received during the Presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of July with focus on anti-India propaganda while claiming Islamabad’s quest for regional stability and peace. This trend is expected to continue in the run up to the UN General Assembly high level session in September which could be attended by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. A similar theme is expected to be reiterated by Pakistan in other international forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in China in September.  Pakistan’s relations with Russia are expected to gain purchase with possibility of  expanding  railway connectivity between Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Russia, and the launching of pilot cargo train between Pakistan and Russia in August 2025 as well as revival of a  Steel Mill in Karachi.

         Pakistan and the European Union (EU) upcoming third Comprehensive Migration and Mobility Dialogue will address irregular migration, border management, and legal pathways for mobility. In gaining favour with US President Donald Trump, Pakistan which does not recognize Israel has joined in nomination of Mr Trump for the Nobel Peace prize. Pakistan voiced its support for Iran at all international platforms, including the UN Security Council (UNSC) and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) against Israeli aggression an apparent contradiction indicating the transactional nature of its policies.  Meanwhile several meetings are likely to be held by Pakistan’s opposition party members in the United States including the two sons of the PTI Chief Imran Khan for US pressure for his release. How Pakistan meets the challenge by the US designation of The Resistance Front, considered an offshoot of the proscribed Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), as a "foreign terrorist organisation" over its alleged involvement in the April 22 attack in Jammu and Kashmir  remains to be seen.

            Pakistan’s relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan will continue an upward trajectory as Islamabad secured a $2 billion investment commitment from Azerbaijan. Pakistan is also pursuing Turkey for greater investment in the Special Economic Zone as well as in defence industry cooperation.

Regional Relations. While there are reports of Track 2 Dialogue between India and Pakistan this is unlikely to result in any breakthrough even though Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has recently declared that he is willing to hold dialogue. However, the month of August is inopportune for any major engagement as nationalist rhetoric will remain high in the wake of the Independence Day Celebrations in both the countries. Pakistan has already declared that Independence Day August 14 would be celebrated under the banner of “Marka-i-Haq” (Battle of Truth), while airspace closure for Indian/Pakistan airlines until August 23 denotes another trend of continuing tensions. PPP Chairman and former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari statement that Pakistan had no objection to extraditing “individuals of concern” Laskhar-i-Taiba (LeT) chief Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-i-Muhammad (JeM) chief Masood Azhar to India as a confidence-building measure, if New Delhi showed willingness to cooperate in the process during an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera has set the cat amongst the pigeons and is unclear if this is a standalone statement or approved by the Pak Army. 

            Pakistan Afghan relations will remain tense despite visit of the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister and Interior Minister separately to Kabul which called on the Taliban to take “concrete and immediate action” against members of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Taliban (TTP) fighters in Afghanistan. Deportation of migrants is another issue while trade liberalization may offer some hope.

            Pakistan and Bangladesh understanding to allow visa-free entry for individuals holding diplomatic and official passports, marking a step forward in bilateral ties between the two nations. This will build upon the launch of direct shipping between Karachi and Chittagong. India will be displeased as this will allow officials of the Pak ISI masquerading as diplomats free access to Bangladesh.

Political Developments

         Absence of genuine representation of the people of Pakistan and systemic manipulation by power brokers and seekers is unlikely to change in the future as developments during July underline this trend which is a truism that is known to all Pak watchers. The ruling coalition in the Federal Assembly has secured two-thirds majority with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) distributing reserved seats to the PML-N, PPP and the opposition Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) following the Supreme Court’s verdict. The ruling coalition is safe for now as far as it does not rock the Army’s boat. Earlier a Constitutional Bench overturned the Supreme Court’s earlier judgement in the reserved seats case indicating the obsequiousness of the judiciary to the Establishment. The storm over possible resignation of President Asif Ali Zardari and Field Marshal Asim Munir aspiring to assume the office of the head of state has blown over and seems to be an attempt to demonstrate to Mr Zardari and the Pakistan People’s Party [PPP] to act within the bounds defined by the military particularly on the issue of protests of cutting off waters to Sindh amongst other issues.

         The seat-adjustment arrangement between the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government and opposition arrangement in the Senate elections in the province — with the treasury bench in the province winning six and the opposition bagging five seats, demonstrates the dysfunctional and controlled election systems for a high body as the  Senate. Meanwhile Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, PTI government may face a crisis as the opposition alliance is closing in on a simple majority as it is now just 20 seats away from tipping the balance of power in the provincial assembly following the reserved seats verdict.

            The Lahore High Court ruled that the prosecution evidence concerning offences attributed to jailed PTI founder Imran Khan in connection with the May 9, 2023, riots amounted to “conspiracy and abetment”. Several PTI leaders were handed down decade-long sentences by two anti-terrorism courts in Lahore and Sargodha in connection with cases registered in the aftermath of the May 9, 2023, violence following the arrest of former prime minister Imran Khan in a corruption case. Thus, more pressure on the PTI is anticipated even as the Party is facing immense internal challenges to organise the August 5 protests.

Internal Security. In the past few months after the Pahalgam terrorist attack carried out by the Pakistan supported Lashkar e Taiyyaba acolyte in Jammu and Kashmir was tagged to that country, Pak DG ISPR has laid emphasis on labeling all terrorist attacks in the country as by groups as supported by India [Fitna al Hindustan]. This however belies the factual structure of terrorist groups in Pakistan with multitude subgroups and affiliations which operate under own dynamics and have scant links with India. Instead of narrative building, a sustained counter terror policy weaving in public support with counter terrorist operations is the way ahead. All Party consensus on countering terrorism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is also a dampener of prospects. Pak security forces are expected to face major resistance from tribal in launching major operations.Amidst this confusion, the tragedy of killings in Balochistan of innocents is expected to continue despite some actions to provide an armed escort and restricting movement of buses during day. TTP as well as the Pakistan Army are also expected to increasingly use drones for attacks.

Defence.  Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir running a policy independent of the government is attempting to create space for the country’s military in the regional sphere, holding a high level meet with the Defence Chiefs of the Central Asian Republics dubbed as a regional meet. Expanding the anti-India narrative and that of ‘success’ during Operation Marka-i-Haq will remain the main thrust along with denial of support from China and Turkey and emphasis on conduct of the operation indigenously. Expansion of defence ties anticipated with multiple countries with Libya also emerging as one of the contenders what role Pak plans to play in the future remains to be seen.  Pakistan’s likely reaction to any future Indian military strike—especially in the wake of Operation Sindoor—will be shaped by a mix of caution, political posturing, and strategic signaling. Another area of emphasis will be possibility of nuclear escalation and thus seeking external intervention to prevent destruction of military as well as economic assets.

Economy. While there are encouraging numbers being bandied about in terms of inflation, foreign exchange reserves and current account surplus. These may be blips in the radar. Pakistan is expected to get a favourable tariff agreement with the United States given the condescending eye of the US President the actual contours remain unclear for now as on July 30. The continuation of loan rollovers by partners is expected to persist in the future. Despite these developments, an acute shortage of dollars in the open market in Pakistan defines the true state of economy and manipulations by the banking system.