North East Forecast August – Low Violence High Base Challenges

Representative Picture Depictign Shadow from Wix

North East States in India are largely peaceful yet the challenges of sporadic incidents of violence, political instability in Manipur, civil war in Myanmar and the lack of finality in accords with the Naga groups will remain concerns ahead.

Here is a brief review of the possibly trajectory ahead.

Manipur

Extension of the president rule in Manipur for another 6 months is an indication that the security situation is not completely under control in the state. There is the unfinished task of recovery of arms and munitions with over 6000 assault weapons looted from the armouries of various police and security forces at large possibly only a portion of these have been recovered. Moreover as Afsara Shaheen Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management notes, “The resurgence of Revolutionary People's Front (RPF)/People's Liberation Army (PLA) PLA-led violence in 2025, including inter-group clashes and alleged drone strikes, reflects the broader volatility of the India-Myanmar borderlands,” in  SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW [SAIR] Weekly Assessments & Briefings Volume 24, No. 7, August 4, 2025

The second factor is lack of revival of the State assembly due to deep differences within the ruling BJP alliance as well as between the Meitei and the Kuki communities thus failing to come to a common solution.

The civil society which have a significant influence in North East and particularly in Manipur are also unwilling to make any compromises on their core demands

Finally, the overall political environment which had resulted in protests and violence in May 2023 remains contested so far and no progress has been shown in improvement in that direction.

While the extension has been for a period of six months, it is unclear for now if a common ground can be found to restore the State Assembly and whether elected lawmakers can bring about peace and stability in the vexed state in North East India impacted by amongst other factors the civil war in Myanmar.

A tense peace thus exists amidst continued activity by militant groups, protests and blockades by civil society with several arms remaining untraced despite sustained actions by the security forces. More over cadres of the militant groups who are on the lose are also a challenge for peace.

One positive development is the return of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) in phases. Reports of resumed farming and shared water use between Meitei and Kuki communities suggest early signs of reconciliation. However, these are fragile gains that require sustained peacebuilding efforts and estimated 8,000–10,000 people may not be able to return due to ongoing security concerns. Their continued displacement could fuel resentment and prolong ethnic divisions.

Nagaland. New hopes for a Naga accord as Centre's interlocutor for Naga talks, A K Mishra held extensive discussion with multiple Naga stakeholders the outcome of which is not clear for now have been belied as the NSCN IM has reiterated a demand for sovereignty of the Naga State and people. Myanmar groups as the NSCN-KYA faction may also try to muddy the waters. On a separate issue there is a possibility of a breakthrough on demands made by the Eastern Nagaland Peoples’ Organisation (ENPO) after third tripartite High-Level Committee meeting held on July 23 in New Delhi. 

Assam. The United Liberation Front of Assam (I) has alleged that Indian army has carried out attacks using loitering munitions equipped with “controversial Thermobaric Bombs (Vacuum Bombs) which has been denied by the military.

Development Several external stakeholders as European Union members, the UK and Japan are showing interest in investing in the North East. Creating conditions conducive for the same will be essential