North East: Control of Violence, Political Complexities Delay Stability

Source Ministry of Development of North East Region, Government of India

Resistance to national integration in the North East, manifesting in multiple insurgencies, given the considerable ethnic diversity, is a long-term concern. While violence continues to be low, the re-eruption of old wounds, as in Manipur and talks with Naga groups spread over three decades, underlines continued challenges despite progress in multiple spheres. Here is a state-wise forecast of near-term futures

Manipur – The Long Road Ahead

The State of Manipur has been in the national limelight since May 2023, when a wide schism broke out between the two main ethnic communities – the majority Meitei and the Kuki-Zo. The essential issue remains special status based on ethnicity, land and forest rights. This divided the state into political and ethnic lines, which continues to remain a challenge for harmonisation, with multiple efforts at compromise failing to yield tangible results.  Attempts to revive the State Assembly, primarily by the MDA, are unlikely to succeed due to divisions within the party and the strong resistance from Kuki political leaders.

Control of violence has been a success under the President's rule. Still, the cost may have to be paid in the future, with over-securitisation of the state, restrictions on civil liberties, and widening fractures along ethnic lines. While a large cache of arms and munitions, which had been looted from the State armoury, is being recovered, there is still a long way to go as hundreds of weapons continue to be held by non-state entities and some civil society entities. Importantly, in the last two years, militant groups which had been under varied forms of constraints in the form of cease fire and suspension of operations agreements have resumed activity and sporadic acts of violence, criminal and targeting the 'other,' is prevalent, which is expected to continue.

Nevertheless, reducing violence provides an opportunity for political dialogue between the two divided communities, and while the Central Government has taken some initiatives, progress remains slow.

The Kuki groups who initially demanded an autonomous Kuki-Zo council within Manipur have since 2023 increased their demands to a Union Territory with a legislature, which the Central Government, as well as the Meitei, are averse to; thus, an early compromise is unlikely. A solution will have to be obtained within this political context.

The role of civil society in maintaining stability, which has a significant influence on the people at large, has been generally negative. Concomitantly, issues of wider consequence are restrictions on the cross-border movement of people with Myanmar, with the suspension of the Free Movement Regime. This has invited resentment in the local communities, given the suturing of cross-border ethnic linkages. Internally Displaced Persons settlement is another pressing challenge in Manipur, which is planned to be completed by December this year, but may get delayed.

In terms of violence, areas on boundary of the hill and valley segments will remain the most vulnerable as vigilante and armed groups from both sides the Meitei and the Kuki are looking at opportunity attacks on the other community.

Thus, multiple challenges will have to be addressed before stability returns to Manipur including reinstatement of the State Assembly and revocation of President's rule, acceptance of current constitutional configuration by the Kukis, curtailment of activities of militant groups and return of arms, acceptance of civil society groups of state and national objectives and so on.

Nagaland – Sovereignty Demand Stumps Accord

Mr A.K. Mishra, Special Director in the Intelligence Bureau as the Government of India's representative for Naga peace talks, has undertaken extensive efforts to achieve a consensus for a final accord with the fragmented Naga military groups representing the diverse ethnic communities in Nagaland. There are three main factions with which talks are ongoing, the NSCN IM after the inking of a Framework Agreement in 2015, and the two divided Working Committee of Naga National Political Groups [WC NNPG] [N. Kitovi Zhimomi-led WC/NNPGs and 'Gen.' (Retd.) M.B. Neokpao Konyak-led WC/NNPG, who signed a somewhat similar agreement as the NSCN IM in 2017.  The NSCN-IM's persistent demand for a separate Naga flag, constitution, and integration of Naga-inhabited areas from other states in what is termed 'Greater Nagolim' is unacceptable to the Centre.

The two WC NNPGs are reportedly willing to accept an accord with talks to continue sovereignty issues. This is an interim solution that may not fulfil the aspirations of the Naga resistance as a whole.  There are multiple other factions that may not be amenable to a compromise on similar lines, based in Myanmar, such as the NSCN IM [Yung Aung]. In the absence of an accord, ending the cease-fire agreements with cadres coming overground, instability is expected to persist, although the level of violence is likely to remain low.

The demand for a separate territorial and constitutional entity by the ethnic communities in Eastern Nagaland is another pressing issue that could delay political stability.

Mizoram

Mizoram has emerged as a progressive state with high literacy and development indicators. The spill over of unrest in Manipur and the civil war in Myanmar has, however, posed a challenge of refugees. An intense fight for control of areas by the Chin National Army (CNA) and Chin National Defence Force (CNDF) – two factions of the rebel forces that are fighting the Myanmar military has led to a surge of refugees in the past few years. Measures to regulate the refugees through biometric and demographic data of over 35,000 Myanmar citizens currently taking shelter in the State may lead to better management. At the same time, law and order concerns have emerged in Mizoram due to some deviant elements amongst the Myanmar refugees which may have to be watched out for.

Arunachal Pradesh

China's claims over Arunachal Pradesh and hydro hegemony as an upper riparian not just for the North East and India but South East Asia will remain a concern, The dilemma in Arunachal Pradesh revolves around balancing hydropower development with indigenous cultural preservation thus some resistance from the locals is likely with the Central Government seeking to implement dam projects in the wake of China's large dam in Medog county in Tibet where construction has commenced.

Assam

Recent initiatives by the State and central governments have led to alleviating the grievances of the sub-nationalities in Assam, such as the Bodos. The majority of the Assamese community has also seen quiescence in the recent past, and the United Liberation Front of Assam (I), led by Paresh Barua, remains the only thorn, which has limited capability for violence yet can cause considerable concerns due to sporadic attacks on economic targets and extortion.

The Group has claimed drone and missile attacks on its camps along the Myanmar border by the Indian Army, which has led to the loss of  Nayan Asom alias Nayan Medhi, 'chairman' of its 'lower council', and injuries to 19 cadres. The Army has denied any role in the attacks. The area falls in the Sagaing Region of Myanmar, which has many so-called 'mobile camps,' of militant groups from the North East. It is unclear for now whether the action purported to be by the Indian Army, as per ULFA (I), leads to the group negotiating a compromise, for which the state government has taken some initiatives, or increases recalcitrance against the state.

Cross-Border Dilemmas

Disputed territorial sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh apart, North East states have long boundaries with Bangladesh and Myanmar, with considerable scope for spillover of violence, drugs, refugees and availability of sanctuaries. In Myanmar, the challenge is of ungoverned spaces and the ongoing civil war in the country, with Sagaing Region and Chin State sustaining the fight against the Tatmadaw – Myanmar Army. The flow of refugees from Chin State to Mizoram may continue sporadically, while the return of over 35,000 is not envisaged soon.

While the initial surge of violence in Bangladesh in August last year has not spilt over to the North East with early measures by the Indian Border Security Force to ensure that the grid is tightened, long-term implications of political and disruptive forces who are distinctly anti-India will remain negative and will have to be guarded against.

The recent outreach by Pakistan to Bangladesh, with reports of the intelligence agency, the ISI's active interest, would need to be observed with alacrity ahead. China had in the past played an active role in supporting some of the militant groups in the Northeast, but for now, it is relatively benign.

On the positive side in international and regional engagement, at the Rising North East Investors Summit 2025, at Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi on May 23–24, 2025, delegations from over 80 countries participated with interest in the farming and fruits sector, clean energy and urban development amongst other areas. This has potential for the future, linked to the Indian government's development initiatives, as outlined below.

Development Initiatives

The Government of India is implementing various flagship schemes for the development of the North Eastern Region through the respective Ministries/Departments. In addition, the Ministry of Development of the North Eastern Region is responsible for planning, executing, and monitoring development schemes and projects in the North Eastern Region. There has been a 2.5 times increase in budget allocation to the Ministry over the last 10 years.  Development, apart from bringing much relief to the people in remote communities in the scabrous terrain of the North East, will expand connectivity, facilitate governance to reach the masses, create jobs, and also reduce the demand for insurgency and terrorism as an expression of dissent against the State. This, however, is a lengthy process and will need to be complemented by political conciliation.