After the success of Operation 1027, Karenni armed organisations launched assaults in the Mese Township, Karenni State naming their Operation as 1107. Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF) along with Karenni National People’s Liberation Front (KNPLF), the Karenni Army (KA) and the PDF, which operates as the armed wing of the publicly mandated National Unity Government (NUG) launched a joint operation as per Myanmar Now.
“They established an outpost to provide additional security for the Border Guard Force battalion at the station. Our joint forces initiated Operation 1107 with an attack on that outpost,” KNPLF spokesperson Lawrence Soe was quoted by Myanmar Now. “With this escalation of our operations, we are following the previous offensive and the capture of Mese,” the KNDF information officer said. The operation was launched to support Operation 1027 which saw the Brotherhood Alliance over run almost 130 small posts in Shan and Kachin States.
This comes about even as Brotherhood Alliance vowed to extend Operation 1027 across the country. Its statement said: “We will soon launch more effective, joint operations along with other armed revolutionary groups throughout the country.”
Several resistance groups, including People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Bamar People’s Liberation Army and Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF) have already coordinated their attacks with the northern Shan State operation and now the same has been repeated in the Karenni or Kayah State.
While the EAOs and the PDFs are claiming much success, joining and coordinating the large number of operations to bring about a coordinated approach to converge on Nay Pyi Taw will continue to remain elusive.
Details of Fighting in the North
The Brotherhood Alliance—a tripartite military grouping of Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAO) comprising the Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) claimed to have launched a series of offensives in the Northern Shan and Kachin States on October 27 seizing several military bases and having control of communications in this area.
Kachin Independence Army (KIA) which operates in the Shan State has also joined in the operation named as Operation 1027 – indicating the date of launch 27th October. As per a report in the Irrawaddy, Brotherhood Alliance has occupied more than 120 junta positions including military, junta-affiliated militia, and police outposts, and government offices since launching the operation on Oct. 27. They have also seized armored vehicles and artillery. These reports cannot be independently confirmed.
The head of the Myanmar Armed Forces as well as the coup formed Government State Administrative Council Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has stated that military would launch counterattacks against “Operation 1027” being conducted in northern Shan State by the Brotherhood Alliance. This comes as reports indicate that commander of 99th Light Infantry Division (LID) Colonel Aung Kyaw Lwin has become the first divisional-level commander to die in action since the 2021 coup as per the Irrawaddy.
Separately the military has accused the KIA of destructions and blows-up of non-military infrastructures like public railroads, highways and bridges used by the travelling public.
Tatmadaw has repeatedly communicated to the KIA not to attack its bases, the KIA ambushed the small bases commanded by platoon-level forces by overwhelming forces and … has been informed not to involve in the on-going clashes in Shan State (North), it was found that the KIA has ignored the warnings of the Tatmadaw and has engaged in the clashes said an official release.
Reports indicate that fighting has now spread to Sagaing and Magwe regions as local People’s Defense Forces join the resistance offensive setting up ambushes on the convoy of reinforcement of the military.
The Irrawaddy reports that the Brotherhood Alliance has flooded Facebook, with photos of camps and piles of weapons and ammunition they had seized, along with images of surrendering regime soldiers.
Will Nay Pyi Taw be Next?
While taking over of several posts by the Brotherhood Alliance and the KIA is a major disruption, it is unclear if the Myanmar Army will take back these posts as it has launched only air strikes so far.
For any substantial threat to the Myanmar regime however Nay Pyi Taw the capital and the junta strong hold will have to be threatened.
Some EAOs have operated near the capital in the past, will the Brotherhood alliance venture southwards remains to be seen?
Meanwhile over the last two years after the coup, extensive violence was reported from the Mon State, Karen State, Mandalay Region, Bago Region, Sagaing Region. The most intense fighting was reported from the Sagaing region.
According to a report from the Institute for Strategy and Policy—Myanmar issued in June this year, at least 8,640 civilians have been killed since the 2021 military coup. A report just released by the Peace Research Institute Oslo finds that at least 6,000 civilians were killed in the first 20 months following Myanmar’s military coup.