A comprehensive review of events - diplomatic, military, economic and their impact of the Middle East to include i2 Israel-Iran, Gaza and Red Sea
i2 Israel-Iran
Diplomacy
Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz has asked the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Israeli embassies in Europe to increase the campaign against Iran to discuss the issue of sanctions on Iran. The main goal is to increase pressure on the European countries and EU to impose sanctions on Iran's missile project, including the supply of missiles to all proxy terrorist entities associated with it in the Middle East.
Military
Israeli missiles targeted Isfahan site of an airfield, missile and nuclear facilities in Iran on April 17/18, days after Iran launched a drone strike on Israel in response to n attack at the Iranian embassy in Syria. The air defences opend fire but Iran claimed that there was no damage to any of the critical areas. Iran’s Supreme Authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei did not mention the apparent Israeli retaliatory strike on Isfahan and mentioning Iranian strikes in Israel, claimed that whether these hit any sizeable targets was of secondary importance. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian warned Israel in case the latter chooses to “act against the interests of Iran”.
Middle East - Gaza
Diplomacy
French President Emmanuel Macron held phone calls on April 22 with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to discuss ways of avoiding an escalation in the Middle East crisis.
Military
In Gaza, more bodies were found in mass graves at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, according to civil defence crews, bringing the total number recovered there to at least 310. US State Department state there’s no way to safely evacuate hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from Rafah as Israeli troops fought their way back into an eastern section of Khan Younis in a surprise raid. Israel also bombarded northern Gaza in some of the heaviest shelling in weeks. Tanks made a new incursion east of Beit Hanoun on the northern edge of the Gaza Strip. The armed wing of Islamic Jihad, a group allied to Hamas, claimed responsibility for the rocket attacks on Sderot and Nir Am in Israel. Israeli airstrikes killed two Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon, the military said on Tuesday, as air raid sirens sounded in northern Israel. Hezbollah on confirmed the death of one of its fighters, Hussein Azkoul and in retaliation launched deepest attack into Israel
Red Sea
Germany recalled Hessen Frigate, which was a part of the EU mission to stop Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.. Hamburg Frigate will replace it under the EU mission Aspides in August. Iran has deployed a destroyer to escort Iranian commercial ships to the Red Sea and extend assistance to vessels from other countries. India has urged its shipping industry to avoid sending seafarers to Iran and Israel because of the threat of seizure and detention as Indian seafarers made up 17 of the 25-strong crew of the 15,000-teu MSC Aries (built 2020) that was seized by Iranian naval forces on 13 April in the Strait of Hormuz.
Middle East Overall Risks and Impact
The immediate concerns of an Iran and Israel escalation spiraling out of control has now been diffused as both sides seems to have dialed down tensions. This comes amidst attacks by Iran as well as Israel being seen as symbolic rather than with an intention to cause heavy casualties. United States diplomacy has also played a major role by ensuring that both sides containing their plans for escalation and promising Israel some concessions in terms of sanctions on Iran as well as on the Palestine front.
However, escalation is anticipated with Israel launching another major offensive in Gaza while the Houthis in the Red Sea are expected to increase drone and missile attack after a brief lull.
The turmoil on the other hand is impacting oil prices as well as shipping premiums. Reports indicate that commercial shipping container values have risen significantly across almost all sectors and age categories since the start of the year.