Kashmir Terrorism: What Does the Data Reveal?

Militancy/terrorism in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir has been a vexatious challenge to the Indian state for the past few decades. Many a time there has been a hope of resolution only to be belied as a chimera of illusion.

This is not surprising for an insurgency which has strong external support – political, diplomatic and organizational from Pakistan – has a perennial life.

Instability in the neighbourhood particularly Afghanistan which provides a sanctuary for training of inimical groups is another attendant challenge.

On the other hand, internally policy initiatives may have led to reduction of violence in absolute terms of number of fatalities and incidents but ideological mainstreaming remains a work in progress.

Until this is resolved terrorism in Kashmir will continue and management rather than resolution outcomes will be achieved.

Nevertheless, data on terrorist violence can provide some insights. The data is that provided by the Kashmir police hence a word of caution but, here is an overview.

Number of Active Terrorists

In the last couple of years after repealing of Article 370 on August 05, three years ago in 2019, the number of terrorists claimed to be active in the Valley have been below 300.

As of April 2022, these are as low as 172 having come down below 200 for the first time in recent years as per statements by Kashmir police.

The 172 include as per the Kashmir police, 79 foreign (Pakistani terrorists) and 93 local extremists.

Data on Elimination of Terrorists

The Police in the latest figures indicated that 118 terrorists including 32 foreign terrorists have been killed in Kashmir. Last year, [2021], 55 terrorists including 2 foreign terrorists were killed in the same period, thus there has been a rise in numbers of killings.

Recently, Inspector General of Police, Kashmir, Zone Vijay Kumar indicated that 100 terrorists have been killed in the Valley since the beginning of the year; among them 29 were foreigners. “100 terrorists (71 local & 29 foreign) killed in different encounters in 5 months & 12 days this year in 2022. 50 terrorists (49 local & 01 foreign) were killed last year in 2021 in the same duration. Maximum losses to LeT (63) and JeM (24) terror outfits: IGP Kashmir,” Vijay Kumar said in a tweet.

Of the 100 terrorists killed, 63 belonged to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)/The Resistant Front (TRF) while 24 were from Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). 10 Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), two Al-Badr and one Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind (AGUH) terrorists were also killed.

The ratio of foreign terrorists killed to locals is approximately 30:70. On the other hand in terms of presence the ratio of foreign versus local terrorists is approximately 80:90, thus more number of local terrorists have been killed vis a vis foreigners possibility due to lower level of training.

This is verified by the figures given by IG Vijay Kumar who said that “Of the 62 terrorists killed this year, 32 were killed within just three months of joining militancy,” IG (Kashmir) Vijay Kumar.

No foreign terrorist was killed in the first four months of 2021.

Type of Attacks & Geography

The type of attacks in 2022 has been essentially to target the most vulnerable – migrants, non local workers, Panchayat leaders and off duty policemen – in short - soft targets.

Of the 24 killed in targeted attacks a Kashmiri Pandit government employee, a member of the Rajput community, four migrants, and four Panchayat leaders, four police personnel, an Army soldier, two CRPF personnel, two Railway Protection Force (RPF) personnel, and three locals are included.

10 have been killed in central Kashmir, seven in Budgam and three in Srinagar; 11 in south Kashmir including five in Kulgam, four in Pulwama, and one each in Anantnag and Shopian and two in north Kashmir’s Baramulla.

Data of 2021

In figures for 2021, 179 militants, 43 security forces personnel, and 35 civilians were killed in militancy-related incidents in Jammu and Kashmir during the year 2021 which also includes the Jammu region.

646 Over Ground Workers (OGWs) and 82 militant associates where apprehended

128 youth joined different militant ranks in 2021 as per Greater Kashmir.

In 2020, 167 had joined the militant ranks. Of the 128 in 2021, 73 were killed in encounters, 16 were arrested and 39 are active in the field as per IGP Kashmir.

Maximum recruitment was in Shopian in South Kashmir.

Of the 179 killed militants, 168 were killed in various encounters in Kashmir while 11 were killed in the Jammu division.

29 security forces personnel that included 20 from J&K Police, six from Army, and three from CRPF were also killed.

Pakistan Support

Pakistan support to terrorism in Kashmir continues with a change in technique.

While the counter infiltration grid on the Line of Control and International Border has not seen any supporting fire by Pakistan.

Drones are being used to drop weapons and explosives given difficulties in inducting terrorists with arms and munitions.

Rawalpindi has reportedly provided Canik TP9 pistols which are manufactured in Turkey to the terrorists. This has facilitated targeted attacks given the accuracy of the hand held weapon.

Unemployment Trends

In a worrying trend, the unemployment rate in Jammu and Kashmir has swelled to 18.3 percent for the month of May. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) figures, This was 15.6 percent during the month of April. The unemployment rate in Jammu and Kashmir is higher than the national average.

Conclusions

A survey of the figures reveals that in terms of number of active terrorists in the Kashmir Valley, the trend is cyclic thus there is a fall from 300 in the past to below 200 at present which may rise and fall in the future but a spike is not anticipated.

Pakistan managed increase in the numbers by induction of trained foreign terrorists while the indigenous numbers have also increased.

Local terrorists are being eliminated in a shorter time span due to poor training and possibly easy to identify through sources.

J & K police on the other hand need to focus on the foreign rather than local terrorists and offer the latter a route for escape.

Targets of terror are now softer elements such as migrants and non locals. This is also signaling of resistance to repealing Article 370 and particularly Article 35 A by Pakistan apart from lack of capability of the terrorist groups to carry out major attacks.

However, this should not be taken for granted as by induction of trained terrorists some of whom may have been based in Afghanistan, Pakistan may increase intensity of violence in the near future which should be guarded against.

Adequate information appears to be available to the Jammu and Kashmir police as a result of which many successful operations have been launched.

While a number of OGWs and so called, “hybrid terrorists,” have been arrested and taken into custody the merits of the same is questionable.

Trends in terrorist violence in Kashmir has been on containment of terrorists which has led to an over emphasis on numbers – killed and arrested.

In an insurgency numbers, can lull one into complacency to overlook underlying phenomenon that contributes to youth taking the path of violence to seek their perceived or real grievances.

Thus, terrorism in Kashmir or anywhere will never be about the numbers killed.

There is a major deficit in the policy on outreach to the youth post repealing of Article 370 and particularly 35 A.

Engagement of disaffected youth has been limited which can happen through greater politicization and less governmental controls.

On the other hand, tourism numbers can also be deceptive as tourists are flocking to Jammu and Kashmir, this could be due to a deliberate policy of non targeting visitors to the Valley as this is one of the major sources of economy.

[Acknowledgement – Data is culled from Kashmir Police, include some in reports by Greater Kashmir]