J & K UT Election Early Trends

Union Territory (UT) of Jammu and Kashmir is now poised for elections. These are likely to be held before March next year.

While the Election Commission is to promulgate the electoral rolls by November 15, which will remain contentious given the possibility of inclusion of large number of non locals that is feared by political parties in Kashmir, shaping of the electoral space for advantage has commenced.

Last week Union Home and Cooperation Minister Shri Amit Shah was in the UT and inaugurated and laid the foundation stone of 240 development projects of about Rs. 2,000 crore in Srinagar after a similar action in Baramulla.

Mr Shah in his address, has attempted to woo the people in the hills of Pir Panjal and Chenab. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has completed a huge task of ensuring that democracy reaches every village of Jammu and Kashmir Shah claimed.

The rallies in Kashmir came after Mr Shah addressed a public meeting in Rajouri, in the Jammu region.

The theme in Rajauri was similar. “people of Pahari and Gurjar-Bakarwal community have always stood like a rock to protect India and all Indians sleep peacefully because of the existence of such an impenetrable wall of security,” said Mr Shah

Mr Shah apart from being the Home and Coordinating Minister is a key political strategist for the BJP known to be the closest confidant of Prime Minister Modi, their journey going back to Gujarat.

The BJP hopes that by wooing the Pahari and Gurjar Bakarwal community which has sizeable number of votes in the hills region of Jammu as well as Kashmir it would be able to break the hold of the regional parties in this belt.

Combined with domination in Jammu, the BJP expects to emerge as the largest party in the UT elections and thus is not forming any pre poll coalition.

The Opposition

Opposing the BJP will be the People Alliance of Gupkar Declaration, mainly the National Conference and the People’s Democratic Party – both based in the Valley with some influence in the hills, break way Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad and the Indian National Congress amongst others such as the newly formed Apni Party.

Launching his regional party in September named as the Democratic Azad Party (DAP) — former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad sought to unite the people of the Valley and Jammu region.

In case plans for a majority fail than the BJP hopes to take the assistance of some of these groups while ensuring that the Chief Minister is from the Party and from the Jammu region.