Here is a brief review of developments in the Indo Pacific with outline trajectory, risks and impact ahead.
Diplomacy
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was on a visit to Australia, New Zealand and Fiji from 1 to 7 May. UK-Bangladesh cooperation set to increase on priority areas including migration, economic reform and security, as UK Minister for the Indo-Pacific, Anne-Marie Trevelyan was in Bangladesh on a two-day visit from 7 May. Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on May 03, met ASEAN Senior Officials in the national capital and expressed confidence that the ASEAN-India comprehensive strategic partnership will grow from strength to strength. On 6th May, India and the European Union (EU) reiterated their commitment to a free and rules-based maritime order in the Indo-Pacific at their second security and defence consultations, co-chaired by joint secretary (international cooperation) Vishvesh Negi of the defence ministry and Joanneke Balfoort, director for security and defence policy with the European External Action Service. Delegation of the European Union to India organised a Road to Schuman event titled “The security environment in the Indo-Pacific region and the EU’s role as security actor in partnership/cooperation with India.
Military
An United States initiative led to formation of a new strategic alliance dubbed the "Squad," consisting of the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines as defense leaders from these four nations convened in Hawaii, home to the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM). First joint patrols by these nations have now been undertaken in the contested South China Sea after the trilateral summit at the White House involving leaders from the US, Japan, and the Philippines. This comes after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr's decisive pivot towards Western alliances. As anticipated Chinese state-run media have criticized the new alliance, claiming it exacerbates regional risks and complicates the already tense situation in the South China Sea. Beijing views the "Squad" as an extension of American efforts to contain China's rise, which could lead to increased military and diplomatic tensions in the region.
Three Indian Naval Ships were in Singapore for a three-day visit as part of the operational deployment of the Navy's Eastern Fleet to the South China Sea/ In a bid to strengthen its military presence in the Indo-Pacific, Germany has dispatched two warships to the region. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said, “Looking the other way, showing no presence in the Indo-Pacific in support of the international rules-based order, that’s not an option for Germany,” he told reporters before the vessels departed.
The Raimondo Montecuccoli (P 432), the third Thaon di Revel class PPA (Pattugliatore Polivalente d’Altura) and the first with anti-air warfare (AAW) capabilities (PPA Light Plus) has left the La Spezia naval base on 29 April for an operational ‘projection’ campaign in the Indo-Pacific for six months. Adm. Samuel J. Paparo assumed command of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command from Adm. John C. Aquilino during a change of command ceremony May 3, 2024.
“The [USINDOPACOM] team is uniquely ready to shape the current strategic environment to our nation and our Allies and partners’ advantage. We must act now with a sense of urgency,” Paparo said.
Space
On 03 May, China launched its Chang’e-6 lunar probe aboard the Long March-5 Y8 carrier rocket from the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site in Hainan Province as part of China’s overall ambitious space program to send a crewed lunar mission by 2030.
Risks and Impact
The week ending 07 May has seen increasing engagement in the Indo Pacific diplomatically with German Foreign minister and the UK Indo Pacific minister travelling to the area not to be left behind Joanneke Balfoort, director for security and defence policy of the EEAS was in Delhi for the second dialogue. SQUAD - strengthening the overall military partnerships by the United States, Japan, Philippines, and Australia all allies could be dubbed by China as the Asian NATO. Surprisingly India a member of the QUAD grouping is not a part of the SQUAD possibly of own choice or lack of an invite. These groupings will provide some relief to the smaller nations as Philippines enhancing sense of deterrence while China is expected to view this a containment – or a balance of threat.
The forays of European Navies – Germany and Italy indicates long term commitment to the Indo Pacific and the Indian Navy in the South China Sea is another development likely to be watched in Beijing with concern but observations will be made only in case of a passage through the troubled waters. China’s lunar probe is another indicator of rising space ambitions.
Impact In sum, creation of collective security minilateral SQUAD and growing activity in the South China Sea of United States partners viewed as external actors by China is expected to increase tensions in the Indo Pacific triggering Beijing to continue to enhance cooperation with like minded actors, aggressively defend its perceived national interest and expand defence capabilities.