Here is a brief review of developments in the Middle East to include Gaza, Iran and Israel and the Red Sea with outline trajectory, risks and impact ahead.
i2 Israel-Iran
Diplomacy
While mormalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is still uncertain amidst the continuing war in Gaza, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned, “These people imagine the matter [of Palestine] will be settled if they persuade regional countries to normalize relations with the Zionist regime,” Khamenei said in a speech on May 01. “They’re wrong. The problem won’t be solved until Palestine is returned to the Palestinian people.” Iran announced on May 02 sanctions on several American and British individuals and entities for supporting Israel in its war against the Palestinian territories. Meanwhile, more arrests are made at the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) as police forcibly removed student encampment which has led to fueling Iran’s criticism given past accusations by the West of crackdown of protests by Tehran.
Nuclear
A top Iranian general said his country may reconsider its nuclear policies if Israel threatens to attack its atomic sites, an implicit warning that Tehran might race toward a nuclear weapon as rhetoric continued to escalate in the wake of its April 13 drone and missile attack. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Ahmad Haghtalab didn’t specify what the change might be, but Tehran has long said its nuclear program, which has prompted concern from the US, Israel and the United Nations for years, is solely for peaceful purposes.
Gray Zone
Reports indicate of an attack on an IRGC leader in Tehran ostensibly by Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad, which has not been confirmed by either government
Risks and Impact
A limited US and Saudi Arabia deal which includes providing it with security guarantees and civilian nuclear assistance is unlikely to lead to Riyadh recognition of Israel unless Tel Aviv calls off the offensive in Gaza and agrees to a two state solution which appears unlikely.
There are concerns that Iran may seem going nuclear remains the only option to deter Israel in the future after the attacks by the Israeli Air Force at Isfahan regarded by many as a demonstration. Iranian hardliners may increase pressure for weaponization with estimates of Iran having the capability to do so within months.
Middle East - Gaza
Diplomacy
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Hamas to accept the latest cease-fire and hostage-release agreement proposed by Israel. In a statement, Ismail Haniyeh, chairman of the militant group’s political bureau, said Hamas views the Egypt-hosted negotiations in a “positive spirit” and said that a negotiating delegation would travel to Cairo as soon as possible. As per the Associated Press (AP) initial stage of the deal would last for 40 days. Within a period of three weeks, both sides would start indirect negotiations that aim to restore a permanent calm in Gaza, the AP reports. Three weeks into this first phase, Israeli troops would withdraw from central Gaza. The second six-week phase would seek to finalise arrangements for a permanent calm in Gaza, and the release of all remaining captives, both civilians and military, in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners released from Israeli jails.
President Joe Biden broke his virtual silence on on the nationwide Gaza campus protests, saying the United States was not authoritarian but insisting “order must prevail”. In a televised address from the White House, Biden added that there was “no place” for anti-semitism on university campuses, which have been roiled by pro-Palestinian demonstrations amid Israel’s bombardment in Gaza.
Military
Despite strong concerns raised by itsWashington, Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on April 30 to launch a ground offensive on Rafah, “with or without” a truce deal being agreed. “We will enter Rafah and we will eliminate the Hamas battalions there with or without a deal,” the Israeli PM’s office quoted him as saying. United Nations chief Antonio Guterres responded by saying that a military assault on Rafah would be an unbearable escalation. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he has still not seen a plan for Israel’s planned offensive on the southern Gaza city of Rafah that would protect civilians, repeating that Washington could not support such an assault.
Amid the diplomatic efforts, Israel kept up its bombardment that has flattened swathes of Gaza. Israel’s offensive has killed at least 34,535 people in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to the health ministry. An AFP correspondent reported air strikes on Gaza City, Khan Yunis and Rafah, while Israel said “fighter jets struck a number of terror targets in central Gaza”.
Risks and Impact
Green shoots are evident for a ceasefire as both sides are willing to reduce the level of violence amidst release of hostages held by the Hamas and prisoners by Israel. However it is too early to state that all is likely to be well in Gaza and numbers who will suffer in case of Israeli offensive in Rafah are said to be in thousands. Given domestic developments in the United States with spiraling protests on campuises, Biden administration is under pressure for effective implementation of the ceasefire and reducing civilian casualties in Gaza. However simultaneously PM Netanyahu’s political allies are not accepting any slow down at this stage when the Hamas is perceived to be at a disadvantage. So how the situation plants out remains to be seen.
Red Sea
The U.S. military said on April 28 it had engaged five unmanned drones over the Red Sea that "presented an imminent threat to U.S., coalition, and merchant vessels in the region." Houthi targeted the MSC Orion container ship in a drone attack in the Indian Ocean as a part of their ongoing campaign against international shipping to express solidarity with Palestinians and against Israel's military actions in Gaza, Reuters reported.
EOS Risk, a UK-based consultancy, issued a bulletin following the MSC Orion attack, reportedly warning customers that Houthi drones had a range of up to 2,000 kilometres.
The drone attack on the MSC Orion on April 26 shows that the Houthis are now threatening merchant shipping hundreds of miles beyond the Red Sea and out into the wider Indian Ocean, the Financial Times (FT) reported, citing maritime officials and experts.
Risks and Impact
Resumption of drone and missile attacks by the Houthis with an increased range is expected to be a setback for shipping companies traversing these crucial waters of the Red Sea. It is apparent that the Operation Prosperity Guardian launched by the US has not reached the desired results to contain such attacks. There are limitless and missiles as well as drones apparently supplied by Iran and replacement also appears to be easy. This will certainly keep the Red Sea lanes hot in the coming days. Ocean freight container carriers are treading a fine line between risk and reward during new contract negotiations as the market remains gripped by uncertainty in the Red Sea, according to new data on the Xeneta Shipping Index (XSI®).