India US Relations: The Known Unknowns

India United States relations are in a trough, that is a “Known” yet unacknowledged fact now. The engagement between New Delhi and Washington is today based on overcoming differences on contentious issues rather than promoting complementary ones. Be it tariffs, penalties, bilateral trade agreements or sundry impositions by the administration of President Donald Trump announced ominously by the Leader himself on his very own social media platform curiously known as Truth Social, each day and week the list of burdens on India are mounting.

First it was the penalty for importing oil from Russia a hefty 25 percent, that took the overall tariff card rates to 50 percent, unaffordable for many sectors of the Indian economy from gems to textiles. Second came the H1B visa fees at a stupendous $ 100,000 per IT personnel is recruited to work in the United States of which India has the highest number. This is a steep 10 to 20 times hike from the nominal $ 5000 to $ 10,000 earlier. Some may say that this is only incidental to India as there are other countries also facing similar hikes, maybe but the Russian oil penalty is targeted only on Delhi even as other countries are importing as much or maybe even more – China for instance - from Russia.  Then comes the steep hike on pharma of 100 % tariffs which is expected to hit the India pharma companies hard, what next and it is the movies another burden for films that are made outside the United States for being screened in that country, the list goes on. Ostensibly except for the oil penalty these are not India specific.

Sergio Gor, nominated as an ambassador to India is also given the additional charge as a Special Envoy for South and Central Asian Affairs.  Clearly a major strategic partner would require a fulltime ambassador, but no the Trump administration feels that this role can be coupled with being an envoy to one of the most contentious and difficult regions in the World - South and Central Asia particularly Afghanistan and Pakistan with China on the sidelines. So far, we are dealing with the “Knowns”.

The Big ‘Unknown,’ is the reason why India is being targeted or is it that we are only over analysing the Trump administration response in general with only the Russian penalty that can be ascribed as being unfair to India. After all, Mr Trump has famously said that Mr Narendra Modi the Indian Prime Minister is a friend, he also wished him on his birthday.  It is believed that India US defence cooperation is on stream as armies of the two countries conducted Exercise Yudh Abhyas recently while sales agreements have picked up some pace as GE 404 engines for the LCA Mark 1 A are trickling in. Trade negotiations have also commenced.  

The Unknowns thus get more furtive. There is speculation of personal rage against Delhi for not accepting that it was Mr Trump who managed to negotiate a cease fire between India and Pakistan ending the four-day aerial skirmish of May this year. On the contrary, Pakistan has eulogized the US President many times over and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize – which is one award the Mr Trump is eagerly looking for. To add insult to injury so to say,  the US President has feted Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir at least twice in the White House the first time exclusively becoming the only military chief of any country to have been so invited for a lunch with the President of the United States. Last week, the Prime Minister of the country Mr Shahbaz Sharif also accompanied the Army Chief [sic] or was it the other way round for a meeting with Mr Trump.  That came in the wake of the Saudi Pakistan Strategic Defence Agreement which called for mutual assurance in the case of a war on any side on the lines of NATO’s Article 5.

Then was Mr Trump’s Gaza Plan which he thought it wise to have Pakistan on board apart from other Islamic countries who do not recognize Israel. Of course, Indian Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi has also supported the Gaza Plan but that may not have counted as much. So the list of the Unknowns may go on and we will never come to know the reason why.

For India it is better to be prepared to act on the premise that there are likely to be more aberrations in relations with the United States and silently build parallel leverages with other stake holders in the international and regional system, rather than a narrative that all is well.