India’s Future Aerospace R & S Architecture: Potential and Outcomes

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Exploiting platforms and technologies from space to sensors, India is planning a multi-layer aerospace surveillance network which may manifest between 2030-35. What is the potential of these systems and what outcomes can be anticipated and when, here is a review.

The first layer is the Space Based Surveillance Phase-III (SBS-III) programme under which a constellation of 52 satellites in the low earth and geo-stationary orbits will be deployed for persistent surveillance, secure communications and maritime domain awareness for surveillance both on land, as well as on sea as per the Times of India.

The SBS III initiative was approved at a cost of Rs 26,968 crore. Twenty-one satellites will build by Indian Space Research Organisation or ISRO and thirty-one by private sector, with deployment scheduled between 2025 and 2029.

This will supplement first phase of the project wherein, ISRO developed and launched satellites such as Cartosat 2A, Cartosat 2B, RISAT 1 and RISAT 2.

The second phase of the project was launched in 2013, by the Manmohan Singh government and the satellites launched were the Cartosat 2C, Cartosat 2D, Cartosat 3A, Cartosat 3B, Microsat TD, Microsat R and RISAT 2A.

With a vastly expanded domain of information requirement, low earth and geostationary satellites have assumed significance and synthetic aperture radar with high resolution optical sensors, enabling round the clock monitoring irrespective of weather or light deployed in the low earth orbit are expected to provide continuous surveillance.

The successful launch of Vikram-1, India's first privately developed orbital launch vehicle, is an encouraging development though not directly linked will add to the capability for launching satellites up to 350 kilograms into Low Earth Orbit. Skyroot Aerospace which is behind the success is a part of the overall new start up ecosystem which is seen as capable of launch of the thirty-one satellites, can thee deliver complex ISR satellites at scale remains to be seen.

Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) on the other hand is facing mass resignations with at least one hundred scientists putting in their papers in recent months. Nearly eighty scientists have left the UR Rao Satellite Centre (URSC) from Bengaluru, while around twenty departures have been reported from the Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC) in Kerala's Thiruvananthapuram as per the Times of India.

Concerns over pay disparity, private‑sector pull and organisational culture may see the brain drain from the strategic industry which has to launch twenty-one satellites of the fifty-two.

The second layer of aerospace surveillance will be Fixed-Wing Based High Altitude Pseudo Satellite (FW-HAPS) the acceptance of necessity for which has been approved by the Defence Acquisition Council on 03 July this year.

These stratospheric airships will operate at altitudes exceeding twenty kilometres and remain airborne for several months at a stretch, providing persistent intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities bridging the gap between conventional drones and satellites. Stratospheric platforms globally face endurance, power, and weather challenges. FW‑HAPS is conceptually worthwhile but is unproven globally due to challenges of endurance, power, and weather vulnerabilities. Moreover, India lacks prior experience in long‑duration stratospheric operations.

The third layer will be an operational of Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) MKII Programme as Centre for Air Borne Systems (CABS), DRDO has signed a contract with AI Engineering Services Limited (AIESL), New Delhi for the conversion of six A321 Aircraft from commercial to green configuration this month. This is a proven systems with DRDO/CABS having built, platform already validated in Netra Mk1 and will add airborne redundancy to space‑based ISR with a mature ecosystem and commercial airframe availability.

MQ9 SEA GUARDIAN

A fourth layer would be 31 MQ-9B armed High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS) manufactured by General Atomics through an inter-governmental agreement, via the Foreign Military Sales programme of the U.S in 2024, though little is known of the progress in procurement so far. These can operate at an altitude of 12,000 metres and Sea Guardian configuration include a 360-degree surface-search maritime radar, automatic identification system, sonobuoy monitoring system, and sonobuoy dispensers for persistent anti-surface and anti-submarine warfare missions as per the Hindu.

One of the critical components of the system architecture will be fusion of multiple inputs from diverse source into a holistic intelligence picture at the strategic level further down streaming to the tactical. For this purpose, an integrated command and control system an expanded Integrated Air Command and Control System or Akashteer which are for coordination of air and missile defence will have to be adopted for providing inputs of a multi domain threat.

On the downside risks, China’s ASAT capabilities and electronic warfare systems used to degrade the network and platforms will need to be factored in.

A word of caution is also essential all these systems are likely to be operational between 2030 to 2035. India’s historical delays defence acquisitions hopefully will not impact the programme of strategic significance.