With a QUAD leaders’ summit, bilateral meets of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with leaders of QUAD individually – US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and newly elected Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, India seems to be placed in a camp that is in strategic competition with China and indirectly [or directly] contesting Russia.
Add the Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and a strengthening of a multi vector gridlock in the Indo Pacific contesting with China is apparent.
Does it imply a change in India’s foreign policy or is it too early to make the deduction as there is a BRICS (Brazil Russia India China South Africa) summit which is due in June and India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar, participated in the meeting of BRICS Ministers of Foreign Affairs/International Relations through video conferencing on 19 May 2022.
The meeting was chaired by Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, Mr. Wang Yi under the BRICS rotating Presidency.
India also held a meet of members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Delhi under the Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS) framework of which the country is the present chair.
Days prior to the QUAD Summit, Prime Minister Modi visited Germany and France amongst other countries where expansion of strategic partnership including defence and security was emphasized.
Can one view these developments as a change in India’ foreign policy trajectory of multilateralism and balancing to that of allying with the United States as the BRICS and SCO arms seem weak?
A brief examination of the principal vectors during the QUAD and related events held in Tokyo Japan may provide a perspective with focus on the hard power issues that is – defence and security – for these are the tangibles that would substantiate a tilt.
QUAD Summit
Firstly, the QUAD, during a Special Briefing on May 24, Foreign Secretary Shri Vinay Kwatra on Prime Minister’s Visit to Japan highlighted some of the principal vectors of engagement during the QUAD summit.
Kwatra stated that the focus was on “Indo-Pacific for free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific, aimed at peace, stability and prosperity in the region”.
In line with the same an important dimension that has emerged is, “a new Indo-Pacific partnership in maritime domain awareness [IPMDA]” and, “a regional initiative to help countries bolster their capabilities to respond to humanitarian and natural disasters as also to combat illegal fishing”.
In the Quad Joint Leaders’ Statement these issues were emphasized such as “support to the principles of freedom, rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty and territorial integrity, peaceful settlement of disputes without resorting to threat or use of force, any unilateral attempt to change the status quo, and freedom of navigation and overflight, all of which are essential to the peace, stability, and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific region and to the world”.
IPMDA will support and work in consultation with Indo-Pacific nations and regional information fusion centers in the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Islands by providing technology and training to support enhanced, shared maritime domain awareness to promote stability and prosperity in our seas and oceans.
"Quad Partnership on Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) in the Indo-Pacific,” will further strengthen our collaboration to effectively respond to disasters in the region.
Bilateral Meets
In the bilateral meet with the US President Prime Minister Modi invited, “US industry in the Indian Defense manufacturing under the Make in India and Aatmanirbhar Bharat program,” and a new initiative for critical and emerging technologies iCET.
During Indian Prime Minister’s meeting with Prime Minister of Japan the two leaders agreed to further enhance bilateral security and defence cooperation, including in defence manufacturing. And sought to hold next 2+2 Foreign and Defence Ministerial in Japan at the earliest.
Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi held a bilateral meeting with Australian Prime Minister Mr. Anthony Albanese on 24 May 2022, the issues discussed were somewhat limited given that Mr. Albanese has just taken over.
IPEF
India has also joined US President Joe Biden’s plank to counter the growing Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific, becoming one of the dozens to sign up for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Japan to attend a Quad summit. U.S. President Joe Biden formally announced the launch of the new framework, which involves a total of 13 nations, including the United States, South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, India, and seven out of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The seven ASEAN countries are Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. IPEF is expected to emerge as a rival to China led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (IPEF).
PM Visit to Germany and France
Importantly days prior to the QUAD related Meets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Germany and France.
In the India–France Joint Statement on the occasion on May 04, 2022, there was special mention of the defence cooperation including joint exercises (Shakti, Varuna, Pegase, Desert Knight, Garuda) for better integration and interoperability, maritime cooperation, armament joint production , “India has sought creative ways for France’s deeper involvement in the "Atmanirbhar Bharat” (Self-reliant India) in advanced defence technology, manufacturing and exports, including through encouraging increased industry to industry partnerships”.
The Joint Statement post 6th India-Germany Inter-Governmental Consultations essentially covered issues of economy and business. While Germany, “reiterated its strong condemnation of the unlawful and unprovoked aggression against Ukraine by Russian Forces,” India focused on humanitarian crisis
Chinese and Russian Response
In a signal to the QUAD and members of the IPEF, Chinese and Russian Air Force aircraft entered the Air Defence Identification Zone of South Korea and Japan.
North Korea seen as a proxy for China (and Russia) undertook three ballistic missile tests on May 25th and preparations are ongoing for a nuclear test soon.
Clearly the embargo that had been worked out during the tenure of former US President Donald Trump has collapsed.
More aggressive military action can be anticipated from North Korea soon as the restraint that may have been capped by China if at all may now transform into inducements for missile and nuclear brinkmanship.
On the Ukraine front the United States is leading a move to bolster lethal and non-lethal military aid to Kyiv which has invited a hostile response from Russia seeing this as a preliminary to a war.
What is India’s Future Foreign Policy Pitch?
Given these diverse developments which side is India pitching its foreign policy remains a key question.
On one hand is the decades old strategic partnership with Russia and dependency on arms and armament support conflicting with perception of a strategic competition with China which also includes standoff on the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Thus, India is looking for partnering nations who are in direct confrontation with China at the strategic level – economic, trade, defence and security.
Defence and Security partnership is being reinforced through various activities as exercises, arms trade, staff talks and defence minister level interactions.
In some ways Beijing with violation of status quo first at Doklam in 2017 and Eastern Ladakh in 2020 has pushed New Delhi to join multiple groupings led by the United States such as QUAD and IPEF, with strong defence and security components emerging in the former as highlighted above.
How will India rework strategic balancing if at all remains to be seen or will it finally tilt towards the U.S. and the West at some costs to strategic partnership with Russia.
What will be the consequences needs deliberation separately?