A general risk list for operations in India has been appended below. The list order is not in any priority or even probability of occurrence but is based on the overall risk profile obtained in the country in terms of various vectors that can disrupt normalcy in functioning and impact safety and security of individuals, community, general public and corporate while impacting continuity.
Geopolitical Competition/Contestation and Wars
Impact of the ongoing geopolitical contestations ongoing in multiple geographic zones on India is expected to be mainly in terms of poltico-diplomatic and economic concerns. Safety and security of Indians in the war zone such as Ukraine will also be impacted.
War or Armed Conflict
An outbreak of war between India and Pakistan and India and China alternatively a state of No War No Peace as existing today between the adversarial parties would result in a major disruption however probability of an open war is low, while border confrontations are ongoing and have security impact in the border areas of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.
Politico-diplomatic, economic and human costs of the adversarial relations are median.
COVID 19 global pandemic and Monkey Pox global health emergency concerns evident in India.
Seasonal afflictions are also common particularly during the monsoon season – June - September while a number of localized spread are also a concern.
Terrorism is prevalent in Jammu and Kashmir – North Eastern States of Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, parts of Arunachal Pradesh which have been declared as disturbed areas and 70 districts under influence of Left Wing Extremists also known as Naxals/Maoists in Central India.
Web and social media based indoctrination by global and regional groups as the Islamic State is also evident impacting vulnerable sections of the youth.
Law and Order
Law and order concerns in India can emerge from a number of factors outlined below:-
Protests, dharnas, rallies bandhs and strikes against government – central, state or local regulations.
Political confrontation – emerging from contested political position.
Communal tensions in the wake of local triggers, festival related and so on.
Triggered by vigilante groups, activists, anti social elements and so on
Social media has of late become a very strong means of passage of information exploited to trigger violence.
Weather challenges are immense and can take the form of extremely heavy rains, thunderstorm, cyclones, strong winds and so on.
India faces a muti hazard scenario as per the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) be it earthquakes, cyclones, droughts, floods, landslides and heat waves. Some of these are seasonal, others can occur without notice such as tremblors.
Man Made Disasters
Poor infrastructure, design safety and related considerations means that man made disasters are recurring to include fire hazards, collapse of infrastructure, buildings, industrial accidents.
Cyber and Information Attacks
Cyber and information attacks are common and impact the individual and corporate alike causing loss of privacy, data with ransomware attacks designed for extortion.
Apart from normal crime, crime against women is a major cause of concern