India Right Signalling, But Avoid the Wrong Policy Turn

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Compromises cannot be made on India’s core national interests yet the strategic partnership with the US is too significant for India to take the wrong policy turn.

It’s a pithy example but India’s foreign policy may be on a crossing where the signal in front and the Right is Red and the Left is Green. All roads lead to the ultimate goal of Viksit Bharat, the one in front will the most propitious one. Like any traffic signal the red light will ultimately turn green, thus it may be worth the wait for India rather than taking the wrong policy turn.

Applying this analogy to the United States India Relations, the front light is presently Red, but ultimately it will turn green. While tactical signalling and expanding strategic autonomy in geopolitics as well as economics is certainly the way to go, this should not lead turning away from the U.S. the worlds largest economy, the most powerful military power and one that will continue to lead due to the commitment to innovation. India thus must continue to sustain the strategic partnership with Washington and not turn away.

Signalling alternate choices is also important particularly Russia as the most significant partners for the past five decades plus and China though an adversary but has developed as a raw economic power through control of vital natural resources as rare earths and minerals. While Russia may have expended huge amount of its comprehensive national power in a needless war with Ukraine, China despite may tailwinds will remain a substantial economic polyglot in the days ahead.

The European Union [EU] has substantial economic clout and is developing military capabilities to emerge as a deterrence if not power projection. What the EU lags behind the US is in terms of innovation. This is evident from the fact that recent innovations have been all led by the US – be it in artificial intelligence, crypto or miliary stealth technologies..

India needs to maintain equitable relations with the significant substantial strategic partners. None of these Russia, China are the EU are in a position to replace the United States which will remain the North Star.

Coming to the present, this is a Red Light which India has faced before the case of Indian diplomat Devyani Khobragade in 2013 comes to mind.

Today the situation is far more complex and includes not just the unfair tariffs on India by the US but also the way these were imposed at 25 + 25 or 50 percent - the latter for India’s drawl of energy resources from Russia. These impact India’s core national interest – strategic autonomy in terms of selection of partners, need to support the largest and weakest economic bloc – agriculture and small industries and the rule of international trade as per norms of the World Trade Organisation [WTO].

Moreover, that India has been singled out is also clear as China, Europe and the United States itself has created indiscretions with reference to trade with Russia for which they have got unpunished.

Moreover, there is a perception of the US attempting to hyphenate India and Pakistan with claims by US President of having played a significant role in managing the cease fire on outbreak of Operation Sindoor. The undue importance given to Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir is part of the same narrative.

Compromises cannot be made on India’s core national interests yet the strategic partnership with the US is too significant for India to take the wrong policy turn.

This is not to succumb or sway to US pressures on the contrary, rationally seek a mutually beneficial pathway. Amongst the spoilers with reports of India walking back on engaging the United States on military sales under discussion there are some green shoots emerging which should be taken note of.

US State Department principal deputy spokesperson Tommy Pigott while explaining the rationale for the tariffs on India also said, “India is a strategic partner with whom we engage in a full and frank dialogue. That will continue and Secretary Rubio has spoken on that. Like anything in foreign policy, you are not going to align 100% of the time on everything.”

US senator and democrat Gregory Meeks was blunt and yet shows the path ahead, "Trump's latest tariff tantrum risks years of careful work to build a stronger US-India partnership" ….India-US relationship is "strategic, economic, and people-to-people", and urged that any concerns be addressed in "a mutually respectful way consistent with our democratic values."