Geopolitical Forecast: Another Frozen Front this Time in Europe

A frozen front may be the best case scenario for both sides Russia and Ukraine and will also please the US President Donald Trump, but there are many caveats that will have to be overcome to achieve this objective,

As Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump are expected to hold a summit in Alaska on August 15^th, there is much debate on what could emerge from the confabulations which have left out the Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Thus, the Alaska summit is expected to be one in a series that would finally have to include a Russia Ukraine Presidential meeting much to the dislike of Moscow.

Many options that are being discussed on possibility of a cease fire -which Russia is insisting should only go into force after the terms of ending the war are agreed upon. But, the focus is on near term objectives of each country.

While Ukraine would like to regain lost areas in the Donbas and other Oblasts, a negotiation is unlikely to achieve the objective. On the other hand, the Russian aum would be to seek acceptance of the four Oblasts which have been annexed by Moscow and more even though Russia does not have possession of the entire territory of these, an attempt to seek the ones that are still under the control of Ukraine during the negotiations is likely.

Reuters provides the details of territorial control of each side which will remain a crucial bargaining chip.

Russia controls 46,570 square km, or 88%, of the Donbas including all Luhansk region and 75% of the Donetsk region with 6,600 square km still controlled by Ukraine.

Russian forces are presently infiltrating in multiple areas to seize Dobropillya  for an advantage during the talks in Alaska.  As per Institute for the Study of War Russia is leveraging intensified tactical advances in Avdiivka for concessions during the talks.

Russian forces also control about 74% of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of southeastern Ukraine, or about 41,176 square km. Ukraine controls about 14,500 square km across the two regions.

President Putin in 2024 said that he would be willing to agree peace if Ukraine withdrew from all regions claimed but not fully controlled by Russia - an area currently of about 21,000 square km - and officially renounced its ambitions to join NATO.

US President Donald Trump referred to a possible swap of,” prime" territory that is Donbass for areas held by the Russians in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. Zaporizhia Oblast hosts Europe's largest nuclear power station – the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) while control of Kherson provides Ukraine unhindered access to the Black Sea.

Such a territorial swap will have to be de-facto as Ukraine President does not have the authority for negotiating territorial sovereignty which will need a national referendum.

After the extensive sacrifices made by the people of Ukraine facing a war that is started by Russia formal acceptance of Russian control over Donbass the minimum territory sought by Moscow is highly unlikely.

QED another frozen front may emerge if a cease fire is agreed upon and which is the  primary intent of President Trump as this may add one more feather in his cap for winning a Nobel Peace Prize after others – many of which as the India Pakistan have become controversial while sustainability of some others is in doubt.

Nevertheless, in this case a cease fire in Russia Ukraine war is more than welcome saving hundreds of lives on both sides.

Yet it cannot be at the cost of Ukraine’s sovereignty or compromise of the valiant people of that country who have stood the tribulations of an imposed war with courage and fortitude. This is also about human values and international law as much about territory.

India’s Approach to Peace Talks

India’s approach to the peace talks has been stated by the Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi in a press release giving out the telephone conversation with the President of Ukraine, Mr Volodymyr Zelenskyy thus, “Prime Minister thanked President Zelenskyy and reaffirmed India’s steadfast and consistent position for peaceful settlement of the conflict and support for efforts aimed at earliest restoration of peace. PM reiterated India’s commitment to extend all possible support in this regard”.

Separately in a Statement the Ministry of External Affairs welcomed the US and Russian talks and said, “India welcomes the understanding reached between the United States and the Russian Federation for a meeting in Alaska on 15th August 2025. This meeting holds the promise of bringing to an end the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and opening up the prospects for peace. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said on several occasions, "This is not an era of war”. India, therefore, endorses the upcoming Summit meeting and stands ready to support these efforts.

Conclusion

In the larger context Russia may also pitch in for a legally binding commitment that NATO will not expand eastwards, Ukrainian neutrality and limits on armed forces, protection for Russian speakers who live there, and acceptance of Russia's territorial gains as per the Reuters..