Flashpoint | Ukraine’s Dark Winter

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Lest We Forget! Comfort Ero, President & CEO International Crisis Group writes millions of Ukrainians caught in Russia’s bombardment face a cruel winter ahead. This month, having recently visited Kyiv, I examine Ukraine’s plight as Russian attacks and pressure from Washington intensify.

This winter will be the harshest Ukraine has faced since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022. Ukrainian forces are largely holding front lines, and long-range strikes on Russian targets have made Moscow pay a growing price for the war. But Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, are under increasingly brutal attack.

Moscow is ratcheting up a missile and drone campaign aimed at government buildings, factories, power grids, ports and railways, all in densely populated areas. Interceptors are scarce, civilian casualties are rising and millions could struggle to earn a living or keep warm this winter. Exhaustion is setting in, along with discontent over alleged corruption in President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s inner circle. Recruiting soldiers is getting ever harder.

Meanwhile, relations between President Zelenskyy and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump have again tanked. Ahead of November’s U.S. midterms, Trump has sought to shift blame for gasoline price hikes largely brought about by the war he launched in the Gulf onto Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. He has struck a deal to buy Russian diesel, temporarily waiving some sanctions on Russia while pressing Kyiv to curb attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. He has also again called on Zelenskyy to step down. Flare-ups between Washington and Kyiv are nothing new, but reports of interruptions in intelligence sharing and a slowdown in Starlink satellite access – both critical for Ukraine’s war effort – raise concerns about U.S. attempts to coerce Zelenskyy into accepting a deal on Russia’s terms.

The White House has renewed mediation efforts, and Russia has agreed to resume three-way talks with the U.S. and Ukraine, which could take place in Abu Dhabi in November. But the Kremlin shows no sign of dropping its demand that, in exchange for a ceasefire, Ukrainian forces withdraw from the parts of the eastern Donbas region they still hold. It also insists that Kyiv forgo NATO aspirations or even credible security guarantees. Moscow thinks time is on its side – all the more so given Trump’s disparaging of Zelenskyy. But thus far little suggests Ukrainians will accept ceding territory still under their control, however fierce a bombardment they face.

Ukraine is not the only flashpoint in Europe. Ukraine’s European partners, who believe that a Russian victory would increase the danger Moscow poses to the continent’s eastern flank, have stepped up support for Kyiv as Trump has cut U.S. backing. Recent Russian drone incursions, along with apparent acts of sabotage and election interference across parts of Europe, appear aimed at sowing fear and pressing Europe to scale back its aid. It’s all too easy to imagine how things could escalate if an attack Europeans blame on Russia kills large numbers of civilians.  

Almost five years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainians have shown tremendous resilience in the face of terrible violence. But worse could be coming. Ideally, Washington would work with European capitals to increase pressure on Moscow to compromise. Trump, however, still seems more inclined to bully Ukraine into a bad deal – though thus far thankfully he does not appear ready to permanently cut off intelligence or access to Starlink (which Zelenskyy says has been restored). Absent U.S. support, Europe will continue having to step up in providing Kyiv urgently needed funds, whatever air defence systems are available and humanitarian assistance to help Ukrainians survive the winter.