In the first half of the Year 2022, there was a surge in activity by the United States to expand the foot print in the Indo Pacific.
Multiple QUAD summits including one in person in Tokyo in May, launch of the Indo Pacific Economic Forum (IPEF) the same time with several partners in the region representing 40 percent of the global GDP was personally led by the American President Joe Biden.
In the regional sphere, Nepal House of Representatives ratified the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) with the United States which assured a sum of $ 500 million for infrastructure development and maintenance in the mountainous country.
These and other developments seemed to denote that China was on the retreat at a time when COVID 19 and the Zero infection policy was being implemented in Beijing.
This may have been too early a conclusion for China’s determination to compete with the United States in expanding influence in the region goes beyond the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Several significant visits primarily by the State Counsellor and Foreign Minister Mr Wang Yi to countries in the Indo Pacific which China calls Asia Pacific and interactions with his counterparts at the G 20 as well as inviting some as the South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin to Beijing almost immediately after the highly contentious visit of Ms Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the Congress and the third ranking leader of the United States to Taiwan are relevant.
Clearly the stage is set for renewed China US competition in the Indo Pacific the diplomatic and economic track of which is evident from recent developments as reviewed herein from South Korea to LMC, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka -
South Korea
China’s outreach to the new South Korean government led by President Yoon Suk yeol is perhaps the most significant given that the visit of Foreign Minister Park Jin to Beijing took place immediately after Ms Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and then on to Seoul.
In Seoul President Yoon became the only head of state not to have a one on one interaction with the US Speaker during her tour of East and South East Asia which included apart from Taiwan – Japan and Singapore. President Yoon was on leave but in Seoul and held an hour long telephone conversation.
Observers remarked that this was a loaded move on the part of the South Korea President who has shown inclination to tilt the country’s policy towards the United States reneging the median line adopted by his predecessor Mr Moon Jae-in.
It was not surprising that the Foreign Minister was rewarded with an early visit To China while a meeting between of Mr Wang Yi with the Japanese Foreign Minister on the sidelines of the G 20 was cancelled.
While the outcome of the meeting of the Chinese and South Korean foreign ministers continues to be debated the event has much significance.
LMC Meet
In July the Chinese Foreign Minister Mr Wang Yi was in Myanmar for a Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) meeting. This is a new trade corridor planned which covers —China (Chongqing), Laos (Vientiane), Thailand (Bangkok) and Myanmar (Yangon) and provides another access to the Chinese to the Indian Ocean. Interestingly Mr Wang Yi did not hold any meeting with the junta chief Min Aung Hlaing and called for Myanmar’s junta to hold talks with its opponents, during his first visit to the country since the 2021 coup
Bangladesh
State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Dhaka in the first week of August. Apart from a joint session with his counter part Bangladesh Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen, the Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina met with Mr Wang Yi on 07 August.
Three Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) were signed in the presence of the two foreign ministers- Cooperation in Marine Science and Technology, 2023-2027 Culture and Tourism Exchange Programme, Plan of Special Assistance of Disaster Prevention and Reduction and 8th Bangladesh-China Friendship Bridge Project was officially handed over to Bangladesh. An announcement that duty-free treatment of 98% tariff lines of goods originating from Bangladesh exported to China will take effect from September 1st, 2022 was also made as per the Chinese Embassy in Dhaka.
Nepal
Nepal’s Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka was in Qingdao, China on August 09 for a bilateral meeting with his counter part Mr Wang Yi along with a delegation of senior officials. Khadka and his delegation was provided a chartered plane to and from Kathmandu to Qingdao. The visit came immediately after Ms Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and it is not clear whether this was in normal course as the invitation had been floated in July and whether it was upgraded on Chinese request to express solidarity of countries with Beijing over the visit and reaffirm One China Policy.
During the bilateral amongst other issues, a Rs15 billion (800 million RMB) grant to invest in projects selected by Nepal for the year 2022 was announced. To support people affected by disasters and natural calamities in different parts of Nepal, Wang announced a package of RMB3 million of disaster relief materials as per Nepal’s request. China will also provide Nepal with medical items and logistics worth 2million RMB. At the same time China’s projects in Belt and Road Initiative in Nepal have yet to take off as though signed in May 2017 both sides have failed to execute a single project and a way out was discussed.
Khadka’s visit to China comes after two back-to-back visits in March and July by Foreign Minister Wang and Liu Jianchao, head of the international department of the Chinese Communist Party, respectively.
Thus, China could be seen as attempting to make a strong comeback in the field of economic assistance and development competing possibly with the United States which made a headway with ratification of the much debated MCC tranche for Nepal by the House of Representatives on February 28 this year after a long delay.
Sri Lanka
In the military sphere as well Chinese activity in the Indo Pacific is on the increase with planned visit of a PLA satellite tracking vessel visit to Sri Lanka.
Thus amidst humanitarian distress, Sri Lanka is facing another crisis that of balancing conflicting security interests of China and India.
India has verbally objected to visit of Chinese PLA ship Yuan Wang 5, a satellite and ballistic missile support vessel on August 11 to conduct satellite and analysis monitoring within the Indian Ocean Region.
As per Marine Traffic, the vessel departed from JIANGYIN, CN on 2022-07-13 09:00 LT (UTC +8) and is currently sailing at 19.0 knots with Southeast direction heading to HAMBANTOTA, LK with reported Estimated Time of Arrival at 2022-08-11 12:00 LT (UTC +8) local time (in 11 days, 19 hours).
On the request of New Delhi- Sri Lanka has asked Beijing to defer the visit.
Conclusion
Evidently the competition between China and the United States is not restricted to issues in the immediate periphery such as Taiwan or the South China Sea but is growing with both global powers reaching out to the countries in the region with much vigour.
This poses a dilemma – an either/or option to nations for making a choice between two dominant major economies who have the capacity for providing economic sustenance and development aid amidst the ongoing crisis of sorts. Balancing both is essential but will remain difficult as the example of Sri Lanka shows.