Analysing the Rising Triggers for Wars in the World

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Reviewing the growing propensity of Wars in the World and what should be done about it.

Indian Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi had cautioned Russian President Vladimir Putin sometime in Autumn 2022 when Russia undertook what it continues to call as a ‘Special Military Operation,’ more commonly known as the War in Ukraine that this is not an era of wars. Mr Modi was right given that state on state wars had been anachronous, and nations were battling non state actors and resistance forces within.

Yet today the propensity for wars that is resolution of conflicts through armed violence appears to be growing. The latest on the list is Cambodia and Thailand. While these as well as the four-day air and missile clash between India and Pakistan may not fall into what is classically known as a war but the use of combat aircraft and heavy weapons including artillery and missiles implies that the propensity for violence and thus casualties of these clashes remain high.

Importantly it is evident that the triggers for wars or the inclination for nations to take to armed conflict is growing.

The reasons are not far to seek, one facet could be the knock-on effect with a series of wars ongoing in the World in the past half a decade or so.

The other could be the failure of diplomacy – bilateral and that of regional and international institutions including the United Nations to provide credible diplomatic options to nations to resolve their differences.

The triggers for today’s wars are diverse. Many of these are the unfreezing of frozen conflicts in different forms, aspirations of the leadership, territorial sovereignty issues, boundary disputes and even contention over ancient temples.

Some as that waged by Israel against Iran is existential – to destroy Tehran’s potential to manufacture a nuclear weapon that Jerusalem believes could eliminate the Jewish homeland given deep antipathy between the two sides.

Some wars such as the most recent clash between Thailand and Cambodia which broke out three days back on July 23, is a dispute over 11th century Preah Vihear temple, perched atop the Dangrek mountain range a monument of Khmer architecture and the surrounding areas that is claimed both by Cambodia and Thailand. International Court of Justice (ICJ) rulings are not seen satisfactory by Bangkok and thus the flash point has emerged once again resulting already in several deaths use of rockets and fighter aircraft in two days of fighting.

In the case of the four day clash between India and Pakistan in May this year the reason was a terrorists attack by Pakistan supported threat actors well known for their disruptive activities in Jammu and Kashmir on  April 22, which killed 26 innocent civilians in selective killings. While a cease fire was reached by both sides, there is potential for another phase.

Israel’s war against the Hamas was also driven by a similar terrorist attack but of a far greater lethality in October 2023. The violence is continuing with failure of the latest round of talks for a cease fire in Qatar.  Israel took the offensive against the Hamas forward and neutralised the regional Iran supported non state actors including the Hezbollah, saw the toppling of the regime in Syria and launched attacks on Iran in June mainly to destroy the nuclear enrichment facilities. The US also joined with deep bunker bursting munitions. A cease fire prevails with Iran but devastating strikes continue in Gaza resulting in a grave humanitarian crisis.

Russia’s War in Ukraine has deeper and complex causes from the alleged suppression of Russian speaking people in that country to targeting a regime branded as “modern Nazis,” with an underlying aspiration for reclaiming the Czarist Empire of the past. Other addendums include the prevention of expansion of NATO and the European Union eastwards.

One common thread is the reemerging of suspended disputes conflicts which have not concluded in a lasting peace settlement.

By that standard one can expect many more interstate disputes to breakout in wars in the near future.

There is yet hope with diplomacy that is ongoing in all these conflicts which should be taken to a finality with political will and willingness for compromise.