Amidst deterioration of relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan over support to Tehreek Taliban Pakistan, collective punishment has been imposed by the Caretaker Administration in Islamabad by ordering deportation of unrecorded Afghan refugees. Thus, thousands are streaming back creating a humanitarian crisis of unparalleled dimension given lack of adequate shelter food and winter survivability facilities in Afghanistan.
Against this backdrop attempts to incorporate the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as the Taliban government calls itself are ongoing. UN Special Coordinator for Afghanistan, Feridun Sinirlioğlu’s proposal presented to the UN Security Council and endorsed by Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, suggests that international compliance and steps towards a comprehensive constitution could normalise relations with the Taliban, including a pathway for their recognition. How far this will succeed remains to be seen as influential stakeholders do not seem to be in alignment with such a plan. This was evident when Russia held a meeting in Moscow of political groups in resistance to the Taliban such as Ahmed Masood leader of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan. The meeting called for a referendum in the country to form an acceptable inclusive government. Presently the scope of such a formulation in Afghanistan is virtually negligible as the Taliban continue to have a stranglehold over governance and there is no appetite in ordinary Afghans to stand up against the regime even though they have been subjected to inhuman treatment and women driven back to the home and hearth.
Taliban is continuing to insist on implementing the Sharia and reforming education syllabus ideologically incorporating conservative religious ideas from which it sprung. The so called Supreme Authority Mullah Haibatullah is ensconced in Kandahar – far away from reality – national, regional or international – pontificating on how a State should be run as guided by the Sharia. This undermines attempts by pragmatic leaders in Kabul as Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Mullah Yaqoub and Sirajuddin Haqqani to mainstream the IEA. Caught in this political discord and other factors, it is only sustained international humanitarian assistance that will keep the Afghans going in the years ahead which in turn is creating a sentiment of entitlement in the Taliban leadership.