Afghanistan Multiple Reports on Growing Instability, What’s the Status?

Afghanistan Representative Image - Conflict Amidst Desolation of Drought and Disasters

In recent weeks there are multiple reports in the digital mainstream media of growing instability and some say even a civil war in Afghanistan. Afghanistan may not be at the threshold of civil war, but the ingredients—external support to internal resistance, factionalism, early signs of anti-Taliban insurgency and economic stress—are accruing, warranting close regional monitoring. Here is a review of brief overview of some of these and the conclusions that can emerge from the same -

Pakistan’s New Adventurism in Afghanistan, Upstaging Taliban

A week ago Security Risks Asia in a report titled, “Pakistan’s New Adventurism in Afghanistan, Upstaging Taliban”, highlighted the growing contestations over Afghan Taliban support to the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan or TTP between Kabul and Islamabad which appeared to be moving beyond air and drone strikes and border clashes to support the anti-Taliban resistance forces by Pak ISI, even as the Taliban warned Pakistan of the fate suffered by the Soviet Union and the United States invasions of the country

Could Afghanistan Be Heading Toward Another Civil War?

Khaama Press an Afghan news outlet highlighted a report in Japan-based news outlet Nikkei Asia which warned that escalating tensions between Kabul and Islamabad, combined with unsuccessful Chinese mediation efforts, could further destabilize Afghanistan and increase the risk of renewed civil conflict. Nikkei Asia pointed to recent clashes involving the Afghanistan Freedom Front and Taliban forces as an indication that armed groups opposing Taliban rule are continuing or expanding their military operations. The report also highlighted the failure of China-led efforts to ease tensions between Kabul and Islamabad.

Nikkei Asia warned that continued fighting, alongside increased activity by armed opposition groups, could reverse efforts to stabilize Afghanistan and raise the risk of wider violence, including a return to civil war. The report presents this as a potential outcome rather than a confirmed or inevitable development.

Afghanistan Has Entered a Civil War

In August, former Afghan vice-president Amrullah Saleh says Afghanistan has entered a civil war, warning that the conflict remains limited for now but could develop into a more violent and destructive confrontation. In an interview with Outlook, Saleh described Taliban rule as “illegitimate” and said public opposition to the group was taking various forms, with armed attacks being its most visible expression. According to Saleh, Afghanistan under Taliban rule lacks national sovereignty and a legitimate state system, a situation he said has had serious consequences across the country, particularly in the north, Kabul and other major cities.

Bit by bit, the Taliban is losing control of Afghanistan

Saima Afzhal writing in the Asia Times claimed that Taliban’s claim to legitimacy is its deliverance of stability after decades of war but emerging armed resistance is shattering that line, The Taliban governs every provincial capital and faces no conventional army capable of marching on Kabul. It repeatedly cites improved security as proof that Afghanistan’s post-2021 order is settled. But armed resistance is becoming more geographically dispersed, more organizationally diverse and harder to dismiss as a residual and largely spent northern rebellion. The Taliban may have won Afghanistan’s last war while creating the conditions for its next one writes Saima.

AP Report; Taliban Firmly in Control

An Associated Press Report on the other hand states, “Taliban firmly in control in Afghanistan 25 years after U.S.-led invasion to oust them,” claiming that increase in security is evident despite widespread human rights violations by the Taliban resented by the people the women in general

Conclusion

Based on these multiple reports and the situation prevailing on the ground it can be concluded that a civil war is not underway in Afghanistan, but several early stage indicators suggest portends of one with Pakistan’s attempt to target the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan resulting in border clashes which could expand to support to several resistance groups who are now active in the country as well as the political opposition. Pakistan has been holding conferences fielding the opposition leaders from time to time as well as regional meetings.

Factional divides between the Kandahari leadership and the Haqqani network, visible in disputes over governance, appointments, and control of security organs are persisting. This could create a friction in the future.

The resistance groups are expanding their operations and are active  in Baghlan, Panjshir, and Badakhshan. The attacks by these are increasing over a period with claims and counter claims difficult to verify. Meanwhile Islamic State of Khorasan Province [ISKP] is active in several areas though Taliban claim to have contained the threat.

Economic collapse, burden of returning migrants, natural disasters, food insecurity, and exclusion of women and minorities further deepen instability.

Thus, Afghanistan is not at the threshold of civil war, but the ingredients—external support to internal resistance, factionalism, early signs of anti-Taliban insurgency and economic stress—are accruing, warranting close regional monitoring.