In an era that is marked by a VUCA [volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity] world talking of constants for the coming year 2024 may prove to be hazardous. Yet some trends indicators are evident that provide a degree of certainty amidst the extreme flux.
The main driver to constants unfortunately is geopolitical contestations and regional wars be it in Europe or the Middle East.
Of the wars in 2023 there is hope in only one regional conflict in the South Caucasus which may see some brighter prospects for 2024.
In an unexpected joint statement Azerbaijan and Armenia on 7 December for the first time bilaterally by the Armenian Prime Minister’s Office and the Azerbaijani Presidential Administration with no third-party involved. Though this is a preliminary indicator but there are hopes ahead.
The first constant for 2024 is that such breakthroughs between rivals at war may be limited. This is because the underpinnings of the wars and national sentiments generated are so intense that a breakthrough in the War in Ukraine or in the Middle East is unlikely.
Most analysts predict that the War in Ukraine will sustain into a fourth year in 2025 as the two powers Russia or Ukraine do not have the military muscle to achieve their objectives nor the political will to attempt an amicable resolution. How far this will have an impact on the Indo Pacific with reduction of the United States and European commitment to the region is a driver which needs close observation.
Similar would be the case in the Middle East where the Israel Hamas war is spiraling many humanitarian concerns but internal and external factors indicate that there is unlikely to be any green light with the Palestinians being the worst sufferers. We can only hope that there is limited horizontal escalation in the days ahead despite the employment by proxies by Iran to target the US and Israel indirectly as well as the latter directly through the Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran will further bolster the so called Axis of Resistance in 2024. On the other hand without reasonable measures to avoid civilian casualties Israel loses out on the sympathy wave generated by the terrorist attacks by Hamas on October 07.
The third most talked about possible hostility is Taiwan, which may in 2024 prove to be a Non Contingency. Given the challenges faced by President Xi Jinping domestically and the overall unfavourable environment for China in the Indo Pacific, any adventure in 2024 may prove disastrous for the People’s Liberation Army does not appear to be prepared for the Taiwan Contingency. Yet the buzzing - military and political in the Straits is expected to continue beyond the Presidential elections in Taiwan in January next year.
The South China Sea will continue to remain a hot spot with increasing physical altercations between Philippines and China which have been ongoing for more than a month now as both sides attempt to assert their claims in these troubled waters.
United States and allies assertion of freedom of navigation operations is also a concern that may continue.
On the Korean Peninsula tensions remain a certainty and escalation cannot be ruled out which may emerge from a deliberate trigger by North Korea while enjoying the patronage of Russia and China. South Korean muscle flexing in such a situation may create a huge flashpoint.
In Myanmar the civil war is expected to continue with neither side having the military muscle to achieve success but for the resistance forces seeking rapid hold of the capital Nay Pyi Taw but the movement may have passed by now.
India China standoff on the Line of Actual Control in the Western Sector that is Eastern Ladakh will remain even as there is unlikely to be any breakthrough in the series of talks that have been ongoing for the past three and a half years now. Neither side will be willing to cede space while India in particular will be unwilling to compromise in a general election year 2024.
India Pakistan cease fire on the Line of Control will hold but for sporadic violations, however Pakistan’s ingress of terrorist to fan the embers of terrorist sentiment in Jammu and Kashmir are expected to continue.
Afghanistan will require sustained economic and humanitarian support as Taliban is now demanding this as a right rather than the conscientious efforts by the United Nations in particular to support the hapless people caught in the cleft of a brutal regime.
Comments