China’s maximum pressure strategy was at play during the week of the inauguration of Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te. Beijing’s adversarial position was much anticipated. Will China now extend beyond coercing the new administration in Taiwan will be watched with caution ahead. Given extreme antipathy shown towards the new Taiwanese President importantly is Beijing opening another war front this time in East Asia, after the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East?
Politics
Vice President Lai Ching-te took office as Taiwan's new President of Taiwan on May 20 sworn in at the Japanese-colonial-era presidential office in central Taipei. This invited predictable hostile reactions from China even though Mr. Lai offered talks with Beijing which have been rebuffed.
China's Taiwan Affairs Office said Mr. Lai, who it called the "Taiwan region's new leader" had to make a clear choice between peaceful development or confrontation.
Meanwhile there was chaos in the Taiwanese parliament where the opposition is pushing for reforms as the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) does not enjoy a majority after the January election.
People protested on the streets against the so called investigation bill as it is claimed to lack checks and balances to prevent abuse. The bill is backed by the pro China Kuomintang (KMT), claiming that reforms are necessary to “consolidate and refine” Taiwan’s democracy. Another bill, for an infrastructure project to link the island’s east and west coasts, has also drawn the ire of protesters.
The opposition KMT, and smaller Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) have a majority in the parliament while William Lai Ching-te, from the rival Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was elected president.
As the opposition enjoys a majority President Lai Ching-te may face some heat from the parliament on governance and related issues.
In what has also invited Chinese ire is the attendance by former U.S. officials and lawmakers from countries including Japan, Germany and Canada, and leaders from some of the 12 countries that still maintain formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, such as Paraguay President Santiago Pena.
Military
China conducted military drills around Taiwan to test ability to control key areas and punish President Lai Ching-te, whom they denounce as a separatist on May 23, just three days after the inauguration of the President. Taiwan condemned the military drills by the People's Liberation Army [PLA] and deployed armed forces to monitor and shadow Chinese forces.
The United Nations called for all sides to avoid escalation. "On China, I can tell you that we're of course following the developments in the Taiwan Straits closely. We urge the relevant parties to refrain from acts that could escalate tensions in the region," the UN chief's spokesman said.
The US urged China to act with restraint. "We strongly urge Beijing to act with restraint," the Biden administration official said, warning China not to use Taiwan's political transition as a "pretext or excuse for provocative or coercive measures."
The military drills covered and to the north, south, and east of the island, as well as areas around the Taipei-administered islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin.
Earlier Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence confirmed the detection of a significant presence of Chinese military aircraft and vessels near Taiwan on May 18, noting 18 Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft and four People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels were detected in the vicinity of Taiwan.
"The drills are being conducted in the Taiwan Straits, the north, south and east of Taiwan island, as well as areas around the islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin," China state media Global Times reported.
The drills, dubbed "Joint Sword - 2024A", ran for two days. The drills are tagged "A", opening the door to potential follow-ups, report said.
The Chinese military sent bombers carrying live missiles on May 24 to conduct mock strikes in its Taiwan drills, Chinese state television CCTV said.
Risks, Impact & Checks
The inauguration of President Lai Ching-te starts a new phase in China’s cross straits relations which is expected to provide a very contentious tenure for the new leader in Taipei. While China has held similar military exercises as the Joint Sword 2024 in the past particularly when irked by actions of Taiwanese leadership as the visit of Mr Lai, then vice president, stopped over in the US on a visit to Paraguay in August last year, after Lai's predecessor Tsai Ing-wen met then-US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California and in 2022 after Nancy Pelosi, then the speaker of the US House of Representatives, visited Taiwan, the unceremonious welcome implies more tensions in China Taiwan engagement in the coming times.
Aggressive military posturing could be used by China to egg on the Taiwanese defence forces to react and thus trigger a situation thereby providing an ‘opportunity’ for the PLA to react with force. The military exercises could be also to test the ‘waters,’ [sic] and response of the new leadership in Taipei.
Political influence operations through the KMT which enjoys a majority in the parliament may also prove to be a challenge for the new President and his party, and protests over the new bills may be another attempt to undermine the influence of the DPP.
Meanwhile economic and trade embargoes remains a ‘weapon,’ that being practiced for the past few
China’s hostile reception of the new Taiwan President implies more tensions ahead in cross strait relations which need to be carefully observed in the months ahead.
Checks
AFP Reported that US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet his Chinese counterpart, after China conducted war games around Taiwan in a show of force against the US-backed democracy's new leader.
The Pentagon said Austin would meet Chinese Admiral Dong Jun when they attend the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore from 31 May to 2 June - an annual gathering of defence officials from around the world.
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